Assura : Weighing up the party pledges for NHS buildings

Health and social care policy has - predictably - played a leading role in the manifesto debate so far. Perhaps the most eye-catching statement within the three healthcare plans is the Conservatives' commitment to deliver 'the most ambitious programme of investment in buildings and technology the NHS has ever seen.'

The Conservatives promise to build 'an NHS with the money, buildings and people it needs' is welcome, not only for stakeholders in the healthcare estates sector, but also for the prospects of achieving a lasting and successful transformation of services led by Sustainability and Transformation Partnerships (STPs).

The most influential NHS leaders, including NHS England and NHS Improvement chief executives, Simon Stevens and Jim Mackey, have clearly stated the need to invest more to improve NHS buildings, particularly in primary care, if transformation is to be a success. It is also significant that the language on NHS premises closely mirrors that used by Sir Robert Naylor in his Review of the NHS estate. Theresa May's tight-knit policy team were undoubtedly influenced by Sir Robert's thorough evaluation and bold recommendations for healthcare premises across England.

While there's reason for optimism, stakeholders in NHS estates will have to hold Theresa May's feet to the fire if her party returns to government in a few weeks' time as the 'ambitious programme' for capital investment was not accompanied by a detailed pledge to increase funding. Health commentators have expressed general disappointment in the Conservatives' £8 billion increase in NHS funding, with Chris Ham of the King's Fund saying it 'does little more than extend the squeeze on finances for another two years' and will be insufficient to maintain current standards of care.

Where the Conservatives have failed to deliver on NHS funding, the Labour Party has responded. Labour will commit over £30 billion in extra cash for the NHS and, according to analysis from the Health Foundation, the party plans to allocate an additional £2 billion per year for capital expenditure. While this still may not be enough, a willingness under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership to raise additional tax revenue to meet demand for public services would provide some confidence that the NHS might stop the trend of lurching from crisis to crisis over the next five years.

That's not to say that Labour plans for the NHS have been received with universal warmth and praise. While the party has moderated its stance towards STPs somewhat - saying that it will 'halt and review' the process - its approach towards transformation risks compromising the progress made by regions and cities in shifting the emphasis of care delivery away from a fragmented state of self-interest among NHS organisations towards a service that focuses on more appropriate patient pathways and the delivery of care closer to home.

The Conservatives have re-asserted their support for Simon Stevens' Five Year Forward View, and have thankfully heeded the call from senior NHS officials to consider legislative change to aid STP implementation - though a Conservative government (if elected) will tread lightly in introducing any new primary legislation and probably wait until 2019 at the earliest. The manifesto focused specifically on the failure of the NHS internal market, with plans to review its effectiveness further emphasising the move towards collaboration ahead of competition between NHS providers and commissioners.

The Liberal Democrats will be disappointed by the lack of coverage received by the party's manifesto, launched one day prior to the Conservatives. This is not to say it is devoid of good ideas. If elected, the Lib Dems would ringfence £6 billion of additional tax revenue for health and social care spending, and redirect investment to primary and community care. The party's anticipated post-Brexit revival has not been realised however, and current polls suggest it is unlikely the Lib Dems will return as a major force in Westminster any time soon.

The Conservatives' popularity under Theresa May makes it tempting to call this race early, though we have perhaps seen one too many electoral shocks over the past two years to consider a substantially increased Tory majority a foregone conclusion. Either way, the composition of the House of Commons is set for a considerable change, with new cabinet ministers and select committee chairs set to alter the nature of policy scrutiny and political debate in the coming years.

With both the Conservatives and Labour promising more capital investment for the NHS, the future looks bright for stakeholders in NHS estates regardless of the result on election night. I think we can safely say the real work towards ensuring an effective transformation of services delivered in premises fit for the future will resume in earnest on the morning of 9 June. However, major constitutional upheavals have an awful habit of making government a little bit more complicated than we'd all like it to be.

Finn O'Dwyer-Cunliffe is from Whitehouse Consultancy