ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ANZ RESEARCH
Monday 5 October 2015
ANZ AUSTRALIAN JOB ADS
MEDIA RELEASE
CONTACT
research@anz.com
Chief Economist
Tel: (02) 8037 0063
Em ail:
Warren.Hogan@anz.com
Econom ist
Tel: (02) 8654 6732
Em ail:
Daniel.Gradwell@anz.com
For m edia and distribution enquiries contact: Simone Stella
Associate Director Tel: (03) 8654 0480
Em ail:
Sim one.Stella@anz.com
9 Novem ber 2015
JOB ADVERTISEMENTS JUMP IN SEPTEMBERNumber | % m/m | % y/y | % m/m | % y/y | |
Total Job Ads | 153,778 | 3.9 | 12.8 | 1.0 | 10.5 |
-Internet | 150,822 | 4.0 | 13.7 | 1.0 | 11.3 |
-Newspapers | 2,956 | -2.7 | -19.6 | -0.2 | -18.4 |
Job advertisements jumped 3.9% m/m in September in seasonally adjusted terms after rising by a solid 1.3% m/m in August. In trend terms, job ads were up 1.0% m/m and growth since mid year now appears a little stronger than previously.
The number of internet job ads grew 4.0% m/m in September following an increase of 1.3% m/m in August. Internet job ads were 13.7% higher than a year earlier.
The number of newspaper job ads (2% of total job ads) declined 2.7% m/m in September, after rising for two consecutive months.
'The positive trend in job advertising is a sign that the economy is so far adjusting relatively well to significant headwinds from falling commodity prices and mining investment .
While non-mining firms remain fairly reticent to increase capital spending, the demand for labour in a range of services industries has strengthened. Activity in these industries has been supported by the sharp depreciation of the Australian dollar, which has redirected spending back towards the domestic economy, and by low interest rates, particularly through robust housing market activity and its flow on effects. Hiring in the services sector also looks to have displayed some 'catch up' over the past year or so following unusually weak outcomes.
While we expect momentum in non-mining activity to remain quite good in the near-term, our view is that the significant support to growth from the factors above will wane heading into 2016. For this reason, we expect employment growth to remain reasonably healthy over the remainder of 2015 but to then soften next year. This is likely to prompt the Reserve Bank to provide a little more monetary policy support to prevent the unemployment rate from rising further.'
270
250
Number of job ads per week, 000s
230
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Seasonally adjusted Trend
Source: ABS, ANZ Research
Original Seasonally adjusted (a) Trend estimate (b)
Per cent change Per cent change
Number | Number | Month | Year (c) | Number | Month | Year | |
2008-09 | 181,377 | 180,371 | -26.5 | 180,247 | -26.7 | ||
2009-10 | 139,554 | 139,640 | -22.6 | 139,523 | -22.6 | ||
2010-11 | 174,478 | 174,703 | 25.1 | 174,862 | 25.3 | ||
2011-12 | 166,698 | 166,563 | -4.7 | 166,558 | -4.7 | ||
2012-13 | 141,107 | 140,857 | -15.4 | 140,785 | -15.5 | ||
2013-14 | 128,888 | 128,781 | -8.6 | 128,885 | -8.5 | ||
2014-15 | 140,489 | 140,554 | 9.1 | 140,410 | 8.9 | ||
Sep 2013 | 136,622 | 126,586 | 0.3 | -15.2 | 126,668 | -0.4 | -15.1 |
Oct 2013 | 133,923 | 127,796 | 1.0 | -11.4 | 126,401 | -0.2 | -13.1 |
Nov 2013 | 129,359 | 127,251 | -0.4 | -10.0 | 126,639 | 0.2 | -10.9 |
Dec 2013 | 111,930 | 126,474 | -0.6 | -8.9 | 127,366 | 0.6 | -8.8 |
Jan 2014 | 98,847 | 125,438 | -0.8 | -8.9 | 128,380 | 0.8 | -6.9 |
Feb 2014 | 135,130 | 130,390 | 3.9 | -4.9 | 129,442 | 0.8 | -5.1 |
Mar 2014 | 139,062 | 132,533 | 1.6 | -2.9 | 130,410 | 0.7 | -3.3 |
Apr 2014 | 132,507 | 134,973 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 131,265 | 0.7 | -1.4 |
May 2014 | 129,794 | 127,024 | -5.9 | -3.1 | 132,011 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
Jun 2014 | 134,665 | 132,433 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 132,719 | 0.5 | 2.5 |
Jul 2014 | 137,344 | 133,805 | 1.0 | 4.3 | 133,578 | 0.6 | 4.3 |
Aug 2014 | 143,320 | 136,093 | 1.7 | 7.8 | 134,772 | 0.9 | 5.9 |
Sep 2014 | 147,218 | 136,339 | 0.2 | 7.7 | 136,343 | 1.2 | 7.6 |
Oct 2014 | 143,708 | 137,419 | 0.8 | 7.5 | 137,939 | 1.2 | 9.1 |
Nov 2014 | 140,580 | 138,551 | 0.8 | 8.9 | 139,320 | 1.0 | 10.0 |
Dec 2014 | 124,710 | 140,956 | 1.7 | 11.5 | 140,442 | 0.8 | 10.3 |
Jan 2015 | 111,936 | 142,519 | 1.1 | 13.6 | 141,537 | 0.8 | 10.2 |
Feb 2015 | 148,565 | 143,180 | 0.5 | 9.8 | 142,511 | 0.7 | 10.1 |
Mar 2015 | 149,911 | 141,278 | -1.3 | 6.6 | 143,281 | 0.5 | 9.9 |
Apr 2015 | 141,063 | 144,853 | 2.5 | 7.3 | 144,015 | 0.5 | 9.7 |
May 2015 | 148,150 | 144,923 | 0.0 | 14.1 | 144,962 | 0.7 | 9.8 |
Jun 2015 | 149,359 | 146,732 | 1.2 | 10.8 | 146,217 | 0.9 | 10.2 |
Jul 2015 | 150,006 | 146,175 | -0.4 | 9.2 | 147,669 | 1.0 | 10.5 |
Aug 2015 | 155,696 | 148,051 | 1.3 | 8.8 | 149,157 | 1.0 | 10.7 |
Sep 2015 | 166,041 | 153,778 | 3.9 | 12.8 | 150,617 | 1.0 | 10.5 |
Concurrent seasonal adjustment method (see Technical Appendix for further details).
The trend estimates have been derived by applying a 13 -term Henderson m oving average to the seasonally adjusted series. This smoothing technique enables estimates to be produced for the latest m onth, but it also results in revisions to the most recent six months as additional observations become available.
Annual changes are on a year-average basis.
Original Seasonally adjusted
Trend estimate
Per cent change Per cent change
Number | Number | Month | Year (a) | Number | Month | Year | |
2008-09 | 170,191 | 169,303 | -25.2 | 169,183 | -25.4 | ||
2009-10 | 130,437 | 130,398 | -23.0 | 130,294 | -23.0 | ||
2010-11 | 165,275 | 165,510 | 26.9 | 165,680 | 27.2 | ||
2011-12 | 158,974 | 158,849 | -4.0 | 158,847 | -4.1 | ||
2012-13 | 135,729 | 135,491 | -14.7 | 135,420 | -14.7 | ||
2013-14 | 124,884 | 124,785 | -7.9 | 124,883 | -7.8 | ||
2014-15 | 137,139 | 137,215 | 10.0 | 137,066 | 9.8 | ||
Sep 2013 | 131,946 | 122,491 | 0.2 | -14.5 | 122,586 | -0.4 | -14.4 |
Oct 2013 | 129,314 | 123,675 | 1.0 | -10.6 | 122,343 | -0.2 | -12.4 |
Nov 2013 | 124,990 | 123,200 | -0.4 | -9.2 | 122,593 | 0.2 | -10.2 |
Dec 2013 | 109,475 | 122,482 | -0.6 | -8.1 | 123,331 | 0.6 | -8.1 |
Jan 2014 | 95,097 | 121,405 | -0.9 | -8.4 | 124,365 | 0.8 | -6.3 |
Feb 2014 | 130,673 | 126,400 | 4.1 | -4.4 | 125,463 | 0.9 | -4.5 |
Mar 2014 | 134,713 | 128,482 | 1.6 | -2.4 | 126,477 | 0.8 | -2.8 |
Apr 2014 | 129,214 | 131,271 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 127,379 | 0.7 | -0.9 |
May 2014 | 125,865 | 123,096 | -6.2 | -2.9 | 128,168 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
Jun 2014 | 131,058 | 128,644 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 128,915 | 0.6 | 3.0 |
Jul 2014 | 133,652 | 130,113 | 1.1 | 4.9 | 129,810 | 0.7 | 4.8 |
Aug 2014 | 139,181 | 132,311 | 1.7 | 8.3 | 131,054 | 1.0 | 6.5 |
Sep 2014 | 143,017 | 132,663 | 0.3 | 8.3 | 132,701 | 1.3 | 8.3 |
Oct 2014 | 139,663 | 133,793 | 0.9 | 8.2 | 134,398 | 1.3 | 9.9 |
Nov 2014 | 136,976 | 135,186 | 1.0 | 9.7 | 135,890 | 1.1 | 10.8 |
Dec 2014 | 122,664 | 137,632 | 1.8 | 12.4 | 137,114 | 0.9 | 11.2 |
Jan 2015 | 109,114 | 139,443 | 1.3 | 14.9 | 138,296 | 0.9 | 11.2 |
Feb 2015 | 144,912 | 139,883 | 0.3 | 10.7 | 139,338 | 0.8 | 11.1 |
Mar 2015 | 146,567 | 138,127 | -1.3 | 7.5 | 140,157 | 0.6 | 10.8 |
Apr 2015 | 138,286 | 141,754 | 2.6 | 8.0 | 140,929 | 0.6 | 10.6 |
May 2015 | 145,128 | 141,898 | 0.1 | 15.3 | 141,909 | 0.7 | 10.7 |
Jun 2015 | 146,507 | 143,775 | 1.3 | 11.8 | 143,195 | 0.9 | 11.1 |
Jul 2015 | 146,984 | 143,161 | -0.4 | 10.0 | 144,671 | 1.0 | 11.4 |
Aug 2015 | 152,377 | 145,014 | 1.3 | 9.6 | 146,179 | 1.0 | 11.5 |
Sep 2015 | 162,651 | 150,822 | 4.0 | 13.7 | 147,644 | 1.0 | 11.3 |
(a) Annual changes are on a year-average basis.
The internet series counts the average num ber of advertisem ents carried by each of the sites contributing to the series on the same day of each week in the month indicated. The day (which is not necessarily the same for each site) is selected by the site o perator as broadly representative of its activity levels. The above data are based on information provided by the operators of the following sites: seek.com .au; and the Departm ent of Education's Australian JobSearch site, jobsearch.gov.au.
Original | Seasonally adjusted (a) | Trend estimate (b) | |||||
Per cent change | Per cent change | ||||||
Number | Number | Month | Year (c) | Number | Month | Year | |
2008-09 | 11,187 | 11,068 | -42.7 | 11,064 | -42.8 | ||
2009-10 | 9,117 | 9,243 | -16.5 | 9,228 | -16.6 | ||
2010-11 | 9,203 | 9,193 | -0.5 | 9,183 | -0.5 | ||
2011-12 | 7,724 | 7,715 | -16.1 | 7,711 | -16.0 | ||
2012-13 | 5,378 | 5,366 | -30.4 | 5,365 | -30.4 | ||
2013-14 | 4,004 | 3,996 | -25.5 | 4,002 | -25.4 | ||
2014-15 | 3,350 | 3,339 | -16.4 | 3,344 | -16.5 | ||
Sep 2013 | 4,676 | 4,095 | 1.8 | -32.8 | 4,082 | -1.2 | -33.3 |
Oct 2013 | 4,609 | 4,121 | 0.7 | -29.5 | 4,058 | -0.6 | -30.8 |
Nov 2013 | 4,369 | 4,051 | -1.7 | -28.0 | 4,046 | -0.3 | -28.1 |
Dec 2013 | 2,455 | 3,992 | -1.5 | -27.6 | 4,035 | -0.3 | -25.3 |
Jan 2014 | 3,750 | 4,033 | 1.0 | -21.2 | 4,015 | -0.5 | -22.5 |
Feb 2014 | 4,457 | 3,990 | -1.1 | -18.7 | 3,979 | -0.9 | -20.0 |
Mar 2014 | 4,350 | 4,051 | 1.5 | -16.5 | 3,933 | -1.1 | -17.7 |
Apr 2014 | 3,293 | 3,702 | -8.6 | -19.5 | 3,886 | -1.2 | -15.6 |
May 2014 | 3,930 | 3,928 | 6.1 | -10.5 | 3,843 | -1.1 | -13.6 |
Jun 2014 | 3,607 | 3,789 | -3.5 | -14.5 | 3,804 | -1.0 | -11.9 |
Jul 2014 | 3,692 | 3,692 | -2.6 | -11.8 | 3,768 | -0.9 | -10.5 |
Aug 2014 | 4,138 | 3,782 | 2.4 | -5.9 | 3,718 | -1.3 | -10.0 |
Sep 2014 | 4,201 | 3,676 | -2.8 | -10.2 | 3,642 | -2.0 | -10.8 |
Oct 2014 | 4,045 | 3,626 | -1.3 | -12.0 | 3,541 | -2.8 | -12.7 |
Nov 2014 | 3,605 | 3,365 | -7.2 | -16.9 | 3,430 | -3.1 | -15.2 |
Dec 2014 | 2,046 | 3,324 | -1.2 | -16.7 | 3,328 | -3.0 | -17.5 |
Jan 2015 | 2,822 | 3,076 | -7.5 | -23.7 | 3,241 | -2.6 | -19.3 |
Feb 2015 | 3,653 | 3,297 | 7.2 | -17.4 | 3,173 | -2.1 | -20.3 |
Mar 2015 | 3,344 | 3,151 | -4.4 | -22.2 | 3,124 | -1.5 | -20.6 |
Apr 2015 | 2,777 | 3,099 | -1.7 | -16.3 | 3,086 | -1.2 | -20.6 |
May 2015 | 3,022 | 3,025 | -2.4 | -23.0 | 3,053 | -1.1 | -20.5 |
Jun 2015 | 2,852 | 2,957 | -2.2 | -21.9 | 3,022 | -1.0 | -20.5 |
Jul 2015 | 3,021 | 3,014 | 1.9 | -18.4 | 2,998 | -0.8 | -20.4 |
Aug 2015 | 3,319 | 3,037 | 0.8 | -19.7 | 2,978 | -0.7 | -19.9 |
Sep 2015 | 3,390 | 2,956 | -2.7 | -19.6 | 2,973 | -0.2 | -18.4 |
Concurrent seasonal adjustment method (see Technical Appendix for further details).
The trend estimates have been derived by applying a 13 -term Henderson m oving average to the seasonally adjusted series. While this smoothing technique enables estimates to be produced for the
latest month, it does result in revisions to the m ost recent six m onths as additional observations become available.
Annual changes are on a year-average basis.
6.5
6.0
5.5
Per cent
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Unemployment rate (LHS) ANZ job ads (RHS)
0.4
Per cent of labour force, inverted
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
Source: ABS, ANZ Research
40
30
20
10
y/y% change
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Newspaper ANZ job ads, forward 6 months (LHS) Employment (RHS)
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
y/y % change
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Source: ABS, ANZ Research
60
40
y/y % change
20
0
-20
-40
-60
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Newspaper Internet Total
Source: ANZ Research
2.5
Per cent of labour force
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
ANZ job advertisements ABS job vacancies*
* Latest data are for August 2015 Source: ABS, ANZ Research
170
150
January 2006 = 100
130
110
90
70
50
30
10
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
ANZ newspaper job ads SEEK new internet job ads*
Department of Employment new internet job vacancies*
Source: Department of E mployment, SEEK, ANZ Research
* Latest data are for August 2015
200
180
160
January 2006 = 100
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
ANZ newspaper job ads SEEK new internet job ads*
Department of Employment new internet job vacancies*
Source: Department of E mployment, SEEK, ANZ Research
* Latest data are for August 2015
220
200
180
160
January 2006 = 100
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
ANZ newspaper job ads
SEEK new internet job ads*
Department of Employment new internet job vacancies*
Source: Department of E mployment, SEEK, ANZ Research
* Latest data are for August 2015
260
240
220
200
January 2006 = 100
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
240
220
200
180
January 2006 = 100
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
ANZ newspaper job ads SEEK new internet job ads*
Department of Employment new internet job vacancies*
Source: Department of E mployment, SEEK, ANZ Research
* Latest data are for August 2015
290
270
250
230
January 2006 = 100
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
30
200
180
160
January 2006 = 100
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
ANZ newspaper job ads SEEK new internet job ads*
Department of Employment new internet job vacancies*
Source: Department of E mployment, SEEK, ANZ Research
* Latest data are for August 2015
260
240
220
200
January 2006 = 100
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
The ANZ Job Advertisements Series now uses a concurrent seasonal adjustment methodology to derive the seasonal adjustment factors. This means that data from the current month are used in estimating seasonal factors for the current and previous months. Concurrent seasonal adjustment replaced the forward factor methodology from the June 2010 reference month.
The concurrent adjustment methodology uses the most recent data every month whereas the forward factor approach only used it once a year. Under concurre nt adjustment, the seasonal factors will also be more responsive to underlying dynamic changes than forward factors.
Concurrent adjustment can result in revisions to the seasonal factors each month to estimates for earlier periods. However, in most instanc es, the only noticeable revisions will be to the seasonal adjustment factors for the current month, the previous month and the same month a year ago.
The concurrent seasonal adjustment brings the ANZ Job Advertisements Series in line with the methodology used by the ABS for its monthly employment data.
For some of the newspapers surveyed, the ANZ Job Advertisements series counts the number of advertisement 'bookings'. Each 'booking' may contain multiple advertisements. In addition, the ANZ series counts classified advertisements only, and does not include display advertisements. For these reasons, it would be incorrect to draw any inference or correlation from the ANZ series regarding advertising volumes or revenues from employment advertising in the newspapers surveyed. The ANZ series is not intended to, and should not, be used to assess the financial performance of any of the newspapers included in it.
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