Log in
E-mail
Password
Remember
Forgot password ?
Become a member for free
Sign up
Sign up
Settings
Settings
Dynamic quotes 
OFFON

4-Traders Homepage  >  Equities  >  AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES EXCHANGE LIMITED  >  Australia and New Zealand Banking Group    ANZ   AU000000ANZ3

SummaryQuotesChartsNewsAnalysisCalendarCompanyFinancialsConsensusRevisions 
News SummaryMost relevantAll newsSector newsTweets 

Strategists Lower Australian Dollar Forecasts

share with twitter share with LinkedIn share with facebook
share via e-mail
0
05/14/2012 | 10:35am CET

-- NAB cuts its Aussie dollar forecasts days after CBA does.

-- ANZ says the Aussie could test US$0.9400.

-- Global banks have already turned bearish on the currency.

(Updates with comments from an ANZ strategist in the 11th paragraph.)

 
   By Enda Curran 
   Of  
 

Australia-based currency analysts are revising lower their outlook for the country's exchange rate as Europe's ongoing debt crisis and China's slowdown send the Aussie dollar below parity against the greenback for the first time in five months.

Signs of softness in the domestic economy are also weighing on the Australian dollar as the government enforces tight fiscal settings in order to return a budget surplus and as benign inflation clears the way for more monetary policy easing.

National Australia Bank--one of the country's biggest lenders--said Monday it now expects the Australian dollar to trade at US$0.9800 by September instead of at a previously expected US$1.0200. It also expects the currency to trade at US$0.9700 by the year's end instead of at US$1.0100.

"Unusually, it is the domestic factors which have changed and are likely to drive the Australian dollar lower quicker than we had previously anticipated," said Emma Lawson, a strategist at the bank.

On Monday, the currency slid below US$1.000 for the first time since Dec. 20 to a low of US$0.9976, a move some analysts said clears the way for further losses.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia on Friday dropped its outlook to US$0.9800 by June from an originally forecast US$1.0800, and to US$1.0500 by December instead of US$1.0900.

But the Sydney-based lender remains upbeat that likely stronger growth in Asia means the Australian dollar will stay high.

"We anticipate a mild acceleration in China's gross domestic product growth over the next 12 months," said Richard Grace, CBA's chief FX strategist. "In such an economic environment, it is difficult to get too bearish on the Australia dollar."

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Phil Lowe reinforced that opinion at a conference in Melbourne on Monday. "It is likely that we will continue to have a fairly high exchange rate for some time," he said.

Meanwhile, Westpac too has adjusted its outlook after the RBA this month surprised markets with a more-than-expected easing of 50 basis points. The bank now expects US$0.9800 by the end of the September quarter instead of US$1.0200, but is retaining US$1.0400 as a year-end target. In the near term, it said a test of US$0.9900 is likely.

ANZ Bank foreign-exchange strategists say the Aussie dollar could be in for a prolonged correction.

"Without positive news from China or Europe, Australian dollar rebounds will allow for tactical shorts to be built for a series of technical targets, at US$0.9850, US$0.9600 and US$0.9400, before a long-term base develops," they said.

Some of the world's biggest foreign-exchange houses cut their forecasts for the Australian dollar too last week. Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs expect fresh downside and UBS expects the unit to trade at US$0.9800 in the coming weeks.

"The break of parity is significant; it does show us the psychological level is gone and it's an important line of support out of the way. The downside is clear," said Gareth Berry, a strategist at UBS.

But a still-relatively-strong domestic economy and ongoing demand for iron ore should offer some support.

"There's no sense that the Australia-China ecosystem is starting to break down, and until that does, there's no reason to get excessively bearish on the Australian dollar," Berry said.

-By Enda Curran, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-2-8272-4687; enda.curran@dowjones.com

share with twitter share with LinkedIn share with facebook
share via e-mail
0
Latest news on AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND
04:48a AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING : Kathryn van der Merwe to join ANZ as Group E..
02/21 South Africa grants Barclays Africa immunity in FX rigging probe
02/21 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING : ANZ updates wholesale domestic debt programm..
02/20 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING : ANZ Appoints Jennifer Kusuma as Senior Asia ..
02/20 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING : Becoming a substantial holder
02/18 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING : Anz Reduces Credit Card Rates To Lowest Sinc..
02/18 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING : Notice Corporations Act Subsection 259C(2)
02/16DJAUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING : ANZ 1Q Profit Steady, Signals Strong Capital..
02/16 TRANSCRIPT : Trading Update – BlueNotes interview with ANZ CEO Shayne Elli..
02/15 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING : Dollar holds steady The New Zealand dollar w..
More news
Sector news : Commercial Banks
02:20p ING GROEP : Euro zone banks cut cross-border lending as stability fears grow
02:08pDJMARKET SNAPSHOT : Dow Posts 11th Straight Record; S&P 500 Sees Fifth Straight We..
12:45p Upstart analysts show banks the way in new era for research
12:24p European shares weighed down by insurers, exchange stocks
11:45aDJDEUTSCHE BANK : ETFs Provide Some Good News at Deutsche Bank
More sector news : Commercial Banks
News from SeekingAlpha
02/12 The Big Aussie Short And Why Caution Is A Great Strategy
01/18 The Banks Bull Market Has Created Many Short Opportunities In Asia
2016 A Look At ANZ Banking Group And Its Dividend
2016 Australia & New Zealand Banking Group's (ANZBY) CEO Shayne Elliott on Q4 2016..
2016 ANZ : A Sophisticated Short
Advertisement
Financials ( AUD)
Sales 2017 20 873 M
EBIT 2017 11 033 M
Net income 2017 7 345 M
Debt 2017 -
Yield 2017 5,21%
P/E ratio 2017 13,05
P/E ratio 2018 12,84
Capi. / Sales 2017 4,35x
Capi. / Sales 2018 4,34x
Capitalization 90 900 M
More Financials
Chart AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND
Duration : Period :
Australia and New Zealand  Technical Analysis Chart | ANZ | AU000000ANZ3 | 4-Traders
Full-screen chart
Technical analysis trends AUSTRALIA AND NEW...
Short TermMid-TermLong Term
TrendsBullishBullishBullish
Technical analysis
Income Statement Evolution
More Financials
Consensus
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus HOLD
Number of Analysts 16
Average target price 30,4  AUD
Spread / Average Target -1,9%
Consensus details
EPS Revisions
More Estimates Revisions
Managers
NameTitle
Shayne Cary Elliott Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director
David M. Gonski Chairman
Michelle Jablko Chief Financial Officer
Hsien Yang Lee Independent Non-Executive Director
Paula Jane Dwyer Independent Non-Executive Director
More about the company
Sector and Competitors
1st jan.Capitalization (M$)
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEAL..1.78%69 764
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC-1.00%160 973
AGRICULTURAL BANK OF C..5.48%154 296
JAPAN POST BANK CO LTD1.78%57 241
SHANGHAI PUDONG DEVELO..3.08%52 625
CHINA CITIC BANK CORPO..8.42%44 869
More Results