Log in
E-mail
Password
Remember
Forgot password ?
Become a member for free
Sign up
Sign up
Settings
Settings
Dynamic quotes 
OFFON

4-Traders Homepage  >  Equities  >  AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES EXCHANGE LIMITED  >  Australia and New Zealand Banking Group    ANZ   AU000000ANZ3

SummaryQuotesChartsNewsAnalysisCalendarCompanyFinancialsConsensusRevisions 
News SummaryMost relevantAll newsSector newsTweets 

Strategists Lower Australian Dollar Forecasts

share with twitter share with LinkedIn share with facebook
share via e-mail
0
05/14/2012 | 10:35am CEST

-- NAB cuts its Aussie dollar forecasts days after CBA does.

-- ANZ says the Aussie could test US$0.9400.

-- Global banks have already turned bearish on the currency.

(Updates with comments from an ANZ strategist in the 11th paragraph.)

 
   By Enda Curran 
   Of  
 

Australia-based currency analysts are revising lower their outlook for the country's exchange rate as Europe's ongoing debt crisis and China's slowdown send the Aussie dollar below parity against the greenback for the first time in five months.

Signs of softness in the domestic economy are also weighing on the Australian dollar as the government enforces tight fiscal settings in order to return a budget surplus and as benign inflation clears the way for more monetary policy easing.

National Australia Bank--one of the country's biggest lenders--said Monday it now expects the Australian dollar to trade at US$0.9800 by September instead of at a previously expected US$1.0200. It also expects the currency to trade at US$0.9700 by the year's end instead of at US$1.0100.

"Unusually, it is the domestic factors which have changed and are likely to drive the Australian dollar lower quicker than we had previously anticipated," said Emma Lawson, a strategist at the bank.

On Monday, the currency slid below US$1.000 for the first time since Dec. 20 to a low of US$0.9976, a move some analysts said clears the way for further losses.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia on Friday dropped its outlook to US$0.9800 by June from an originally forecast US$1.0800, and to US$1.0500 by December instead of US$1.0900.

But the Sydney-based lender remains upbeat that likely stronger growth in Asia means the Australian dollar will stay high.

"We anticipate a mild acceleration in China's gross domestic product growth over the next 12 months," said Richard Grace, CBA's chief FX strategist. "In such an economic environment, it is difficult to get too bearish on the Australia dollar."

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Phil Lowe reinforced that opinion at a conference in Melbourne on Monday. "It is likely that we will continue to have a fairly high exchange rate for some time," he said.

Meanwhile, Westpac too has adjusted its outlook after the RBA this month surprised markets with a more-than-expected easing of 50 basis points. The bank now expects US$0.9800 by the end of the September quarter instead of US$1.0200, but is retaining US$1.0400 as a year-end target. In the near term, it said a test of US$0.9900 is likely.

ANZ Bank foreign-exchange strategists say the Aussie dollar could be in for a prolonged correction.

"Without positive news from China or Europe, Australian dollar rebounds will allow for tactical shorts to be built for a series of technical targets, at US$0.9850, US$0.9600 and US$0.9400, before a long-term base develops," they said.

Some of the world's biggest foreign-exchange houses cut their forecasts for the Australian dollar too last week. Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs expect fresh downside and UBS expects the unit to trade at US$0.9800 in the coming weeks.

"The break of parity is significant; it does show us the psychological level is gone and it's an important line of support out of the way. The downside is clear," said Gareth Berry, a strategist at UBS.

But a still-relatively-strong domestic economy and ongoing demand for iron ore should offer some support.

"There's no sense that the Australia-China ecosystem is starting to break down, and until that does, there's no reason to get excessively bearish on the Australian dollar," Berry said.

-By Enda Curran, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-2-8272-4687; [email protected]

share with twitter share with LinkedIn share with facebook
share via e-mail
0
Latest news on AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND
04/24 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING : Fortnum hires former BT manager as advice he..
04/21 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING : Redemption of ANZ Subordinated Notes (ANZHA)
04/21DJSHINHAN FINANCIAL : ANZ Selling Vietnam Retail Business to Shinhan Financial
04/19 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING : ANZ commits to implementing Sedgwick review ..
04/13 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING : Notice Corporations Act Subsection 259C(2)
04/03 GLOBAL WATERPROOF POWER SUPPLY MARKE : Salcomp, Mean Well, Phihong, FSP Group, C..
04/02 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING : ANZ to improve convenience and security on m..
04/02 Ethical investment tide lifts 'greenwash' concerns
03/31 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING : Becoming a substantial holder
03/31 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING : Notice Corporations Act Subsection 259C(2)
More news
Sector news : Commercial Banks
04/26 TSX slips on U.S. trade worries; Home Capital slumps
04/26DJCITIGROUP : Tax Cut Would Cost BofA, Citi Billions, but They Will Still Win -- U..
04/26 French stocks hit nine-month high as earnings power European shares
04/26DJCITIGROUP : Tax Cut Will Cost BofA, Citi Billions. Here's Why They Still Win.
04/26 CREDIT SUISSE : chairman says has shareholder backing - report
More sector news : Commercial Banks
News from SeekingAlpha
02/12 The Big Aussie Short And Why Caution Is A Great Strategy
01/18 The Banks Bull Market Has Created Many Short Opportunities In Asia
2016 A Look At ANZ Banking Group And Its Dividend
2016 Australia & New Zealand Banking Group's (ANZBY) CEO Shayne Elliott on Q4 2016..
2016 ANZ : A Sophisticated Short
Advertisement
Financials ( AUD)
Sales 2017 21 327 M
EBIT 2017 11 022 M
Net income 2017 7 410 M
Debt 2017 -
Yield 2017 5,06%
P/E ratio 2017 13,44
P/E ratio 2018 13,18
Capi. / Sales 2017 4,40x
Capi. / Sales 2018 4,41x
Capitalization 93 894 M
More Financials
Chart AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND
Duration : Period :
Australia and New Zealand  Technical Analysis Chart | ANZ | AU000000ANZ3 | 4-Traders
Full-screen chart
Technical analysis trends AUSTRALIA AND NEW...
Short TermMid-TermLong Term
TrendsBullishBullishBullish
Technical analysis
Income Statement Evolution
More Financials
Consensus
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus HOLD
Number of Analysts 15
Average target price 30,9  AUD
Spread / Average Target -3,5%
Consensus details
EPS Revisions
More Estimates Revisions
Managers
NameTitle
Shayne Cary Elliott Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director
David M. Gonski Chairman
Michelle Jablko Chief Financial Officer
Hsien Yang Lee Independent Non-Executive Director
Paula Jane Dwyer Independent Non-Executive Director
More about the company
Sector and Competitors
1st jan.Capitalization (M$)
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEAL..5.13%70 581
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC-2.19%164 793
AGRICULTURAL BANK OF C..7.42%156 517
JAPAN POST BANK CO LTD0.86%56 717
SHANGHAI PUDONG DEVELO..-7.16%47 253
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE17.15%42 989
More Results