Talking Points
- AUDUSD shorts at risk ahead of Australian GDP release
- Updated targets & invalidation
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AUDUSD 30min
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook: Aussie is trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation with the overnight rally failing at the 50-line (red) before pulling back into the median-line extending off the lows. We mapped out these levels in today’s webinar on SB Trade Desk and we’ll be looking for a pullback to offer long-scalp entries. Interim support rests at 7211 backed by the lower median-line parallel and the weekly open at 7175 (near-term bullish invalidation).
Keep in mind the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside and ultimately we would be looking to sell a more meaningful recovery. Interim resistance stands at 7250/53 (200-day moving average) backed by the 2016 yearly open at 7282. A breach above this level is needed to validate near-term reversal with such a scenario targeting 7307 & October high-day close at 7360. From a trading standpoint, I would be looking for a dip into near-term support to fade on the data release. Be mindful of thin liquidity conditions heading into the month close/open. We’ll be continuing to track this pair and other USD setups this week on SB Trade Desk.
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- A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows traders remain net long AUDUSD- the ratio stands at +1.66 (62% of traders are long)-bearishreading
- Yesterday the ratio was +2.01 (67% of open positions were long); Long positions are 9.5% lower than yesterday and 6.4% below levels seen last week
- 3.1% lower than yesterday and 6.7% above its monthly average
- Although SSI remains net-long, the recent pullback in open long positions suggests that the immediate short-bias remains at risk heading into the release.
Relevant Data Releases This Week
Other Setups in Play:
- USD/JPY Coiling Ahead of U.S. GDP- Breakout Levels to Watch
- EURGBP Breakdown Eyes Critical Support at 7520
- GBP/JPY Rally Approaching Initial Resistance Hurdle at 162
- GBP/USD Into Support- Shorts at Risk Above 1.44
- Webinar: USD Crosses in Focus as Index Eyes Resistance
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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday’s on SB Trade Desk at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)
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