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Talking Points:
- AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
- Aussie Dollar selloff stalls as prices meet two-month trend line support
- Looking for a compelling opportunity to sell in line with long-term trend
The Australian Dollar has found interim support at trend support set from early march after falling against its US counterpart as expected. The decline followed the formation of a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern and was catalyzed by soft first-quarter CPI figures.
From here, a daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7696 opens the door for a test of the 0.7786-7835 area marked by the 23.6% level and the April 21 high. Alternatively, a push below the intersection of trend line support and the April 27 low at 0.7548 exposes the 38.2% Fib retracement at 0.7450.
We are keen to enter short AUD/USD in line with our 2016 fundamental forecast. An actionable trigger for a short position is absent at the moment however, arguing for patience. With that in mind, we will remain on the sidelines until a more compelling opportunity presents itself.
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