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Bank of America Corp : Disorderly Euro Zone Break-up Could Weaken Brent Oil To $60 -BofA-ML

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05/18/2012 | 01:26pm CEST

A disorderly break-up of the euro zone could push Brent crude prices to as low as $60 a barrel amid the resulting sharp European recession and negative global economic consequences, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC) said Friday.

"If policy makers were unable to stem the contagion following Greece's exit from the euro, it could potentially lead to a chain reaction where other countries have few options but to opt out of the currency union as well," the bank said in a research note.

In the event of the disorderly broad euro zone break-up, oil demand in developed European economies could drop by 2 million barrels a day if the region's economy shrinks by 10%, the bank said.

"This could create a large demand gap in global oil balances resulting in oil prices falling sharply," it added.

But if Greece is the only country to leave the euro zone, Brent could fall to $80 a barrel, while the benchmark could drop to $100 a barrel if the possibility of Greece leaving the euro is explored but does not materialize, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said.

"Finally, if Greece is able to renegotiate its bailout package successfully and stays in the euro, Brent oil prices could rebound to $120 a barrel," the bank adds.

Thursday, the bank said it sees Brent crude averaging $118 a barrel this year and $120 a barrel in 2013, although another round of monetary easing in Europe could push prices as high as $140 a barrel over the next 12 months.

At 1006 GMT ICE July Brent was trading down 54 cents, or 0.5%, at $106.95 a barrel.

-By Konstantin Rozhnov, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9956; [email protected]

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Financials ($)
Sales 2017 89 470 M
EBIT 2017 33 981 M
Net income 2017 19 686 M
Debt 2017 -
Yield 2017 1,64%
P/E ratio 2017 12,64
P/E ratio 2018 10,73
Capi. / Sales 2017 2,59x
Capi. / Sales 2018 2,48x
Capitalization 231 282 M
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Average target price 25,8 $
Spread / Average Target 11%
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Brian T. Moynihan Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer
Catherine P. Bessant Co-COO & Chief Technology Officer
Tom Montag Co-Chief Operating Officer
Paul M. Donofrio Chief Financial Officer
Thomas J. May Independent Director
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