TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - May 4, 2015) - Canada's regional economic landscape is experiencing a shakeup thanks to lower oil prices and a lower Canadian dollar, according to the latest edition of the BMO Blue Book.

The BMO Blue Book is published by BMO Capital Markets Economics and BMO Commercial Banking. Much like the U.S. Federal Reserve's Beige Book, the BMO Blue Book combines the expertise of BMO's economists with information on current business conditions provided to BMO's commercial bankers by local businesspeople. The BMO Blue Book features a report for Canada, each province and the Greater Toronto Area.

"After a challenging few months, our commercial clients are cautiously optimistic about the year ahead, and half of the business owners we surveyed expect that 2015 will be a better year," said Steve Murphy, Head, Canadian Commercial Banking, BMO Bank of Montreal. "The weakened loonie and uptick in the U.S. economy have presented an opportunity for businesses to make strategic investment decisions that can help to drive growth and success in the near term."

Doug Porter, Chief Economist, BMO Capital Markets, noted that the Canadian economy is likely to expand at a 1.8 per cent clip, down from a 2.5 per cent pace in 2014, as lower oil prices alone carve roughly half a percentage point from growth. "The more dramatic impact will be how the regional landscape is shaken up this year, as previously high-flying oil-producing provinces drop to the bottom of the growth leaderboard, while some past persistent laggards move toward the top."

Regionally, according to the BMO Blue Book:

Western Canada:

  • British Columbia is projected to lead the pack this year, with real GDP growth expected at 2.6 per cent
  • After several years of stark outperformance, economic growth in Alberta is expected to slow to just 0.5 per cent this year

Prairies:

  • Saskatchewan's energy sector will also feel the impact of lower oil; growth is expected at 1.0 per cent this year, although conditions in the potash and agricultural sectors are more favourable
  • Manitoba's economy should grow 2.3 per cent, benefiting from its diversity

Central Canada:

  • Real GDP growth in Ontario is expected at 2.5 per cent, which would top the national average for the first time in 13 years
  • Growth in Quebec is expected to pick up to 2.1 per cent, supported as well by improving exports and a better fiscal backdrop
  • Overall, this region is benefiting the most from a weaker Canadian dollar and a rebound in growth south of the border

Atlantic Canada:

  • Nova Scotia is poised to lead the group at 1.9 per cent this year, as work begins on the federal shipbuilding contract
  • New Brunswick and PEI continue to face low population growth, but a weaker loonie should provide a boost to exports and tourism - look for growth of 1.1 per cent and 1.6 per cent, respectively
  • Newfoundland & Labrador is likely to see GDP contract 1.0 per cent this year as fiscal restraint remains heavy and oil production fades until more output is brought online later in the decade

The full BMO Blue Book can be downloaded at www.bmocm.com/economics.

About BMO Financial Group

Established in 1817, BMO Financial Group is a highly diversified financial services provider based in North America. With total assets of approximately $672 billion as of January 31, 2015, and more than 46,000 employees, BMO provides a broad range of retail banking, wealth management and investment banking products and services to more than 12 million customers and conducts business through three operating groups: Personal and Commercial Banking, Wealth Management and BMO Capital Markets.

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