BANQUE NATIONALE DE BELGIQUE
2015-04-24
Links: NBB.StatGeneral information
Revival of business confidence confirmed in April
The National Bank of Belgium's business barometer improved slightly in April, thus confirming the two consecutive rises seen in the previous months.
For the third month in a row, the business climate firmed up in the manufacturing industry and, even more so, in business- related services. Conversely, the economic situation deteriorated in the building industry and trade.
The rise in confidence in the manufacturing industry was underpinned by much more favourable assessments of total order books. But, unlike the last few months, forecasts - both in terms of demand and employment - have been revised downwards.
In the business-related services sector, entrepreneurs continue to have a more positive opinion about the current level of activity. Furthermore, for the first time in four months, they are expecting activity to pick up over the next three months.
On the other hand, business confidence has dropped in the building industry, completely wiping out the recovery observed last month. There was a downturn in not only the trend in orders, but also in the overall assessment of order books and in equipment used.
As for the trade sector indicator, the reason behind the decline lies in a downward revision of forecasts for orders placed with suppliers.
Giving an indication of the underlying economic trend, the overall smoothed synthetic curve has reached a turning point and is now back on a very slight upward path.
The results of the latest quarterly survey on production capacity in the manufacturing industry also confirm this upswing. The seasonally adjusted production capacity utilisation rate rose from 79.7 % in January to 80.3 % in April, thus reaching its highest level for almost four years.
Gross synthetic curve
Smoothed synthetic curve1
March April variation in variation in
2015 2015 points points
Manufacturing industry -8.1 -7.3 0.8 -0.2
Business-related services 6.6 9.0 2.4 0.1
Building industry -11.6 -15.6 -4.0 -0.1
Trade -6.0 -8.2 -2.2 -0.2
Overall synthetic curve -6.3 -6.2 0.1 0.1
1
The smoothed curve has a two-month delay for the overall synthetic curve and a four-month delay for the branches of activity.
Source: NBB.
Communication
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.
boulevard de Berlaimont 14
BE-1000 BRUSSELS
phone + 32 2 221 46 28 www.nbb.be
Company's number:
0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels
2
APRIL 2015
OVERALL SYNTHETIC CURVE
20
NCS
10
0
-10
-20
-30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
20
NS975
10
30
NS296
20
0 10
-10 0
-20
-10
-30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
20
NS707
10
20
NS914
10
0 0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Seasonally adjusted and smoothed series Seasonally adjusted series
Source: NBB
Communication | boulevard de Berlaimont 14 | phone + 32 2 221 46 28 Company's number: |
National Bank of Belgium Ltd. | BE-1000 BRUSSELS | www.nbb.be 0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels |
3
SYNTHETIC CURVES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
TABLE 1
Seasonally adjusted balances of ''positive'' answers or ''higher than normal''(+) and ''negative'' answers or ''lower than normal''(-). | 1 1980-2015 Min. Max. Avg. | Adjusted series 2015 Jan. Feb. March April | Smoothed series 2014 2015 Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. |
Overall synthetic curve Manufacturing industry curve Assessment of total order books Assessment of level of stocks ² Employment expectations Demand expectations Business-related services curve Assessment of activity Activity expectations Market demand expectations Building industry curve Trend in orders Trend in equipment Assessment of order books Demand expectations Trade curve Employment expectations Demand expectations Intentions of placing orders | - 31.8 + 9.2 - 7.7 - 34.3 + 6.0 - 10.8 - 56.0 + 10.0 - 22.2 - 12.9 + 25.0 + 6.3 - 36.0 + 8.0 - 9.1 - 37.0 + 15.0 - 5.4 - 41.7 + 34.0 + 10.5 - 54.4 + 20.0 - 5.3 - 32.0 + 51.7 + 23.4 - 43.0 + 45.0 + 14.9 - 39.0 + 24.3 - 7.8 - 52.0 + 40.0 - 5.1 - 19.4 + 24.0 + 2.1 - 74.0 + 30.0 - 24.5 - 39.0 + 21.0 - 3.5 - 28.6 + 16.0 - 1.8 - 18.4 + 18.0 + 2.3 - 40.0 + 29.0 + 0.4 - 39.0 + 15.0 - 6.9 | - 8.8 - 8.3 - 6.3 - 6.2 - 10.5 - 9.4 - 8.1 - 7.3 - 22.8 - 24.3 - 26.6 - 20.7 + 3.4 + 3.1 + 0.7 + 0.7 - 6.5 - 5.8 - 2.7 - 4.5 - 9.4 - 4.5 - 2.6 - 3.3 + 3.9 + 4.9 + 6.6 + 9.0 - 12.2 - 9.7 - 4.2 + 1.2 + 17.8 + 15.6 + 12.4 + 16.4 + 6.0 + 8.8 + 11.6 + 9.5 - 12.2 - 14.9 - 11.6 - 15.6 - 6.2 - 11.1 - 9.6 - 14.9 - 1.9 - 5.8 - 6.4 - 11.5 - 26.3 - 25.0 - 19.0 - 25.6 - 14.4 - 17.8 - 11.4 - 10.5 - 14.4 - 12.2 - 6.0 - 8.2 - 2.3 - 3.4 - 4.2 - 7.1 - 20.6 - 15.3 - 8.7 - 5.1 - 20.4 - 17.8 - 5.1 - 12.3 | - 6.9 - 7.2 - 7.9 - 7.8 - 8.6 - 8.8 . . - 21.7 - 22.2 . . + 2.3 + 2.7 . . - 7.6 - 7.1 . . - 3.4 - 3.2 . . + 4.8 + 4.9 . . - 7.9 - 9.5 . . + 14.8 + 15.8 . . + 8.0 + 7.7 . . - 11.0 - 11.1 . . - 6.1 - 6.5 . . - 5.1 - 4.9 . . - 20.6 - 20.9 . . - 11.9 - 11.7 . . - 11.4 - 11.6 . . - 3.0 - 3.0 . . - 17.0 - 17.0 . . - 14.5 - 14.5 . . |
1 Minimum, maximum and average values of each indicator (adjusted series) since January 1980.
2 A positive, respectively negative balance, means that stocks, according to the assessment of entrepreneurs, are higher, respectively lower than normal for the season. When synthetic curves are calculated, the sign of this indicator is therefore reversed.
Communication | boulevard de Berlaimont 14 | phone +32 2 221 46 28 Company's number: |
National Bank of Belgium Ltd. | BE-1000 BRUSSELS | www.nbb.be 0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels |
4
OTHER BUSINESS SURVEY INDICATORS
TABLE 2
Seasonally adjusted balances of ''positive'' answers or ''higher than normal''(+) and ''negative'' answers or ''lower than normal''(-). | 1980-2015 1 Min. Max. Avg. | Adjusted series 2015 Jan. Feb. March April | Smoothed series 2014 2015 Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. |
Manufacturing industry Trend in production rate Trend in domestic orders Trend in export orders Assessment of export order books Trend in prices Price expectations Production capacity (in percentage of the total production capacity) Source: quarterly production capacity survey Business-related services Trend in activity Trend in employment Employment expectations Trend in prices Price expectations Building industry Trend in activity Trend in employment Employment expectations Trend in prices Price expectations Trade Trend in sales Assessment of sales Assessment of level of stocks ² Trend in prices Price expectations | - 33.0 + 20.0 - 0.9 - 35.0 + 16.0 - 7.9 - 44.0 + 30.0 - 2.9 - 61.0 + 10.0 - 23.8 - 21.0 + 24.0 + 1.0 - 24.0 + 43.0 + 6.9 70.1 84.6 78.9 - 38.0 + 37.0 + 10.2 - 49.4 + 34.0 + 6.6 - 35.0 + 48.0 + 17.0 - 15.8 + 12.0 + 1.6 - 13.0 + 30.0 + 6.1 - 44.0 + 34.7 - 5.0 - 38.0 + 22.0 - 5.4 - 50.0 + 30.0 - 5.8 - 27.1 + 32.0 - 1.9 - 20.6 + 46.0 + 5.6 - 46.0 + 37.0 + 0.7 - 41.0 + 28.0 - 8.3 - 12.9 + 32.0 + 12.2 - 20.0 + 50.0 + 1.9 - 11.0 + 66.2 + 11.7 | + 8.5 - 4.2 - 0.2 + 16.3 - 3.5 - 12.3 - 6.6 + 2.3 - 13.2 - 10.2 + 8.1 + 9.8 - 24.1 - 28.3 - 25.2 - 21.2 - 9.0 - 12.4 - 7.5 - 5.0 - 4.2 - 10.1 - 2.4 + 2.7 79.7 - - 80.3 + 0.8 + 1.5 + 7.7 + 11.0 + 16.5 + 1.5 - 6.0 + 1.1 + 20.2 + 11.4 + 13.7 + 24.0 + 2.3 - 4.7 - 8.3 - 0.4 - 11.5 + 3.6 + 2.7 + 3.6 + 1.6 - 2.1 - 2.5 - 10.8 - 8.8 - 10.7 - 8.6 - 10.8 - 11.2 - 15.7 - 7.2 - 13.9 - 13.2 - 20.4 - 17.6 - 20.9 - 10.9 - 12.7 - 15.5 - 19.2 + 3.8 - 5.9 - 4.6 - 7.8 - 21.3 - 23.1 - 13.1 - 12.3 + 16.0 + 10.3 + 12.0 + 11.6 - 11.2 - 12.0 - 10.3 - 0.1 + 4.5 + 4.8 + 5.5 + 4.0 | + 2.0 + 1.5 . . - 5.8 - 6.1 . . - 8.4 - 9.8 . . - 21.1 - 22.7 . . - 7.5 - 7.6 . . - 3.1 - 3.6 . . + 1.2 + 1.1 . . + 5.4 + 4.7 . . + 16.2 + 17.0 . . + 2.3 + 2.0 . . + 4.4 + 3.5 . . - 2.1 - 2.1 . . - 8.0 - 8.6 . . - 8.9 - 9.1 . . - 14.9 - 14.8 . . - 9.6 - 10.2 . . - 7.3 - 6.0 . . - 20.7 - 21.0 . . + 17.0 + 15.8 . . - 8.4 - 9.9 . . + 2.9 + 4.1 . . |
1 Minimum, maximum and average values of each indicator (adjusted series) since January 1980.
2 A positive, respectively negative balance, means that stocks, according to the assessment of entrepreneurs, are higher, respectively lower than normal for the season.
Communication | boulevard de Berlaimont 14 | phone +32 2 221 46 28 Company's number: |
National Bank of Belgium Ltd. | BE-1000 BRUSSELS | www.nbb.be 0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels |
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