LONDON, UK / ACCESSWIRE / October 11, 2017 / Basilea's (SWX: BSLN) prognosis looks good. Multiple licensing/distribution agreements announced for launched assets Cresemba and Zevtera should drive top-line growth faster than we had expected. Major deals include; Cresemba in Europe (ex Nordics), Russia, Turkey and Israel with Pfizer (CHF70m upfront plus up to $427m in regulatory and sales milestones and mid-teen royalties), Zevtera in China with CR Gosun, and in Europe with Cardiome. These licensing and distribution deals validate the commercial potential for both assets and enable the financial fire power to bolster Basilea's existing, innovative R&D pipeline (with a focus on cancer and anti-infective drug resistance). Our upgraded valuation is CHF1,188m or CHF110/share (excluding treasury shares) vs CHF1,048 previously.

Our revised valuation of CHF1,188m, from CHF1,048m, reflects mainly changes to our Cresemba assumptions, as a result of increased non-US sales expectations. Basilea will benefit from royalties and milestones on Cresemba sales, and we have reduced the Cresemba related COGS and SG&A expense accordingly. Our valuation is based on an NPV of the main portfolio of products and net cash. Cresemba, based on $0.8bn peak sales, is worth CHF913.5m. We also include Zevtera in Europe/ROW including the deals with Cardiome and CR Gosun, in addition to risk-adjusted contributions for the US and the earlier-stage pipeline.

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