Talking Points:
- EUR/USD Comes Up Against Key 1.3450-60 Zone; Lower-Low in Place?
- GBP/USD to Face Larger Correction on Unanimous BoE Vote
- USDOLLAR Falls Back From Fresh Monthly High as U.S. Core Inflation Slows
Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 10451.68 | 10455.43 | 10431.47 | 0.12 | 91.85% |
EUR/USD:
- Slips to a fresh yearly low of 1.3457; outlooks remains bearish as the EUR/USD continues to carve lower highs & lows while Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains downward trend.
- Despite the lack of fundamental event risk coming out of the euro-area, looks as though market players continue to favor selling the EUR/USD despite the weak data prints out of the U.S.
- DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) stands at 1.6233 after flipping into positive territory .
GBP/USD:
- Looks poised to hold above the 1.7020-30 region as it continues to trade above the July low (1.7035).
- Bank of England (BoE) Minutes to heavily influence near-term outlook for GBP/USD as market participants look for a growing dissent within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
- BoE may continue to favor a stronger British Pound as it helps to achieve price stability.
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Price & Time: Key Test for the Euro
Managing USD Expectations with EUR/USD, USD/CAD (but not USD/JPY)
USDOLLAR Daily
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
- Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index advances to a fresh monthly high despite the unexpected downtick in the core rate of inflation.
- Looks as though Fed will retain a dovish tone for monetary policy as the stickiness in the headline reading for inflation was largely driven by higher energy costs.
- Nevertheless, close above 10,440 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) should bring up 10,470 next.
- Interim Resistance: 10,508 (61.8% retracement) to 10,524 (38.2% retracement)
- Interim Support: 10,354 (Oct. low) to 10,375 (50.0& retracement)
Release | GMT | Expected | Actual |
Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN) | 12:30 | 0.3% | 0.3% |
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) | 12:30 | 2.1% | 2.1% |
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) (JUN) | 12:30 | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JUN) | 12:30 | 2.0% | 1.9% |
Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (JUN) | 12:30 | 238.227 | 238.083 |
Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (JUN) | 12:30 | 238.535 | 238.343 |
House Price Index (MoM) (MAY) | 13:00 | 0.2% | 0.4% |
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (JUL) | 14:00 | 5 | 7 |
Existing Home Sales (JUN) | 14:00 | 4.99M | 5.04M |
Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) | 14:00 | 1.9% | 2.6% |
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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