Talking Points:
- GBP/USD Retains Bearish Momentum Ahead of U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) .
- USD/CAD Bullish Outlook Remains Favored Despite Strong Canada Employment
- USDOLLAR Marks Lower-Highs With More Fed Rhetoric on Tap Next Week.
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GBP/USD
- GBP/USD continues to carve lower-highs during first full-week October as bearish momentum in Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in play.
- With the U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to slow to an annualized 1.4% from 1.5% in August, the next downside objective comes in around 1.5890 (61.8% retracement) to 1.5900 (50.0% expansion).
- The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) for GBP/USD continues to highlight a net-long retail positioning after flipping on October 2, with the ratio currently standing at +1.38.
USD/CAD
- Despite 74.1K rise in Canada Employment, USD/CAD continues to hold opening monthly range, with the bullish RSI momentum providing conviction/confirmation for a further advance.
- With the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern highlighting a bullish bias, next topside objective comes in around 1.1300 pivot to 1.1320 (61.8% expansion).
- Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) may cast bearish outlook for the Canadian dollar as the headline reading for inflation is expected to slow to an annualized 2.0% from 2.1% in August.
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Read More:
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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 11048.62 | 11067.93 | 11004.22 | 0.32 | 96.68% |
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index remains at risk for a larger near-term decline as it appears to be carving a series of lower-highs, while bearish RSI momentum takes shape.
- Will continue to watch Fed commentary next week, especially as Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak at the Boston Fed Conference on October 17.
- 10,869 (78.6% retracement) to 10,887 (61.8% retracement) will be the near-term region of interest, followed by 10, 752 (38.2% expansion) to 10,759 (61.8% retracement).
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Release | GMT | Expected | Actual |
Import Price Index (MoM) (SEP) | 12:30 | -0.7% | -0.5% |
Import Price Index (YoY) (SEP) | 12:30 | -1.4% | -0.9% |
Fed's Charles Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy | 13:00 | ||
Fed's Esther George Speaks on U.S. Economy | 17:00 | ||
Fed's Jeffrey Lacker Speaks on Financial Firm Bankruptcy | 19:00 | ||
Fed's Daniel Tarullo Speaks on International Finance | 13:00 | ||
Fed's John Williams Speaks on Chinese Exchange Rate | 14:30 |
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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