- U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 1.4% Would Mark Lowest Reading Since 2009.
- Core Rate of Inflation to Downtick for The Fourth Time This Year.
Trading the News: U.K. Consumer Price Index
A further slowdown in the U.K.’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may bring up fresh monthly lows in the GBP/USD as it gives the Bank of England (BoE) greater scope to retain its highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time.
What’s Expected:
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Why Is This Event Important:
Subdued price growth in the U.K. may continue to foster a 7-2 split within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), and a weak CPI print may drag on interest rate expectations as Governor Mark Carney remains in no rush to normalize policy.
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Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario
Release | Expected | Actual |
RICS House Price Balance (SEP) | 36% | 30% |
BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (SEP) | -- | -1.8% |
Producer Price Index- Input n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG) | -6.8% | -7.2% |
Easing home prices paired with lower input costs may generated a dismal inflation print, and a marked slowdown may spark a more meaningful run at the 1.5900 handle as the GBP/USD retains the bearish momentum from July.
Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario
Release | Expected | Actual |
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q F) | 0.8% | 0.9% |
Retail Sales inc. Auto (MoM) (AUG) | 0.4% | 0.4% |
Average Weekly Earnings in Bonus (3MoY) (JUL) | 0.5% | 0.6% |
However, the uptick in wage growth along with the resilience in private-sector consumption may generate a strong CPI figure, and an unexpected pickup should generate a larger rebound in the pound-dollar as it renews bets for higher borrowing costs in the U.K.
How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)
Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. Headline & Core Inflation Weakens in September
- Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short British Pound trade
- If market reaction favors selling sterling, short GBP/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bullish GBP Trade: CPI Report Tops Market Forecasts
- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBP/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bearish British Pound trade, just in reverse
Read More:
COT: British Pound Speculators Flip to Net Short Position
Price & Time: Do or Die Levels For Risk?
Potential Price Targets For The Release
GBP/USD Daily Chart
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- String of lower-highs continue to favor the downside, especially with the longer-dating bearish RSI momentum in play
- Interim Resistance: 1.6280 (38.2% retracement) to 1.6300 (50.0% retracement)
- Interim Support: 1.5890 (61.8% retracement) to 1.5900 (50.0% expansion)
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Impact that the U.K. CPI report has had on GBP during the last release
Period | Data Released | Estimate | Actual | Pips Change (1 Hour post event ) | Pips Change (End of Day post event) |
AUG 2014 | 09/16/2014 8:30 GMT | 1.5% | 1.5% | +12 | +108 |
August 2014 U.K. Consumer Price Index
The U.K.’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed as expected to an annualized 1.5% in August from 1.6% the month prior. However, the core rate of inflation beat market forecasts as the reading unexpectedly advanced to 1.9% from 1.8% in July. Easing price pressures was mainly seen in food and non-alcoholic drinks, which marked the largest decline in more than a decade. Subdued inflation increases the probability that the Bank of England (BoE) will retain its current policy throughout 2014, but we may see a growing rift within the central bank amid the stickiness in the core CPI. The sterling showed a choppy reaction following the mixed print, but the GBP/USD firmed up during the North American trade to end the day at 1.6275.
--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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