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CATERPILLAR INC. (CAT)

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Caterpillar Inc. : Buy on the lower bound

05/02/2012 | 10:36am
Opinion : Bullish above USD 99.7
Target price : USD 109.2
Stop loss: USD 96
NYSE
Heavy Machinery & Vehicles
The world’s leading producer of mining construction and operation equipment, Caterpillar, has released for the first quarter a revenue of $16 billion, up 23% and a net income of $1.6 billion, up 29%.

Moreover, the group has revised upwards its forecast for annual profit to $9.50 per share, against $9.25 previously. It kept its forecast for sales, between $68 and $70 billion. The order book continued to increase in the first quarter at $ 30.7 billion. Besides, the management announced to face a slowdown in China and Brazil which curb their expansion to master inflation.

Technically, Caterpillar’s stock has failed to sustain bullish impetus. The share has declined and evolve now in a trading range bounded by USD 99.7/109.2. Currently, the security is near the lower bound, represented by the USD 99.7 mid-term support, and could head back towards the upper bound i nthe next sessions.

Thus, investors could take a buy position on the lower bound to target the upper bound at USD 109.2. A stop-loss will be fixed at USD 95.5, below a small gap at USD 96.
Caterpillar Inc. : Caterpillar Inc. : Buy on the lower bound
Alexandre Nutte
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Financial Ratios

Size 2014e 2015e
Capitalization 61 284 M$ -
Entreprise Value (EV) 68 748 M$ 75 296 M$
Valuation 2014e 2015e
PER (Price / EPS) 17,1x 13,6x
Capitalization / Revenue 1,11x 1,05x
EV / Revenue 1,25x 1,29x
EV / EBITDA 7,58x 7,66x
Yield (DPS / Price) 2,55% 2,71%
Profitability 2014e 2015e
Operating Margin (EBIT / Sales) 10,5% 11,0%
operating Leverage (Delta EBIT / Delta Sales) - 1,97x
Net Margin (Net Profit / Revenue) 6,52% 7,57%
ROA (Net Profit / Asset) 6,07% 4,87%
ROE (Net Profit / Equities) 18,6% 21,2%
Rate of Dividend 43,5% 36,8%
Balance Sheet Analysis 2014e 2015e
CAPEX / Sales   3,94% 4,31%
Cash Flow / Sales (Taux d'autofinancement) 13,3% 12,4%
Capital Intensity (Assets / Sales) 1,07x 1,55x
Financial Leverage (Net Debt / EBITDA) 0,82x 1,42x
Income Statement Evolution
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