Chicago Wheat : New price recovery ?
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04/03/2012 | 04:51am
Opinion : Check out the trading range breakout 620 / 680
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The world wheat acreage should rise by 1.5% for the harvest 2012/13. The world production of wheat in 2012, with 690 million tons, will be close to the record of 2011. According to the quarterly report of the FAO, wheat production will be less than 1.4% (10 million tons) to last year's record, remaining well above the average of the last five years.
However, drought continues to raise concerns about efficiency of the production in the U.S. and Europe in particular. The latest report from the International Grains Council for the outlook 2012/2013 indicates, in this connection that the average returns from production may not match the high level recorded last year and that, therefore, the stocks could gradually decrease. Meanwhile, increased import needs in major importing countries could also participate in a new steadying of prices for wheat, which has lost nearly 20% of its value in 2011.
Technically, the trend of wheat prices remain absolutely neutral since November 2011. The balance between supply and demand takes place within a specific trading range between $620 and $680 . If the top of the range is crossed upward, we will take a position on the Chicago futures with a first target of $ 750.
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Rodolphe Steffan
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