Equity Research Espresso

News comment

Clasquin‌‌‌‌‌

Buy‌‌‌

France | Support services | MCAP EUR 64.5m‌‌‌‌‌

Target Price

EUR 32.00‌‌‌‌‌

28 April 2017‌

Current Price Up/downside Change in TP Change in EPS

EUR 28.00‌‌

14.3%

none

none 16E / none 17E‌‌‌

Leveraging its edge Baptiste de Leudeville‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌

Equity Research Analyst

bdeleudeville@keplercheuvreux.com

+33 1 53 65 36 55

Market data

Bloomberg: ALCLA FP

Reuters: ALCLA.PA

Market cap (EURm)

64

Free float

39%

No. of shares outstanding (m)

2

Avg. daily volume (EURm)

0.1

YTD abs performance

-1.4%

52-week high/low (EU

FY to 31/12 (EUR)

R) 32

12/16E 12/17E

.85/23.50

12/18E

Sales (m)

235.0

245.3

252.1

EBITDA adj (m)

7.1

8.5

8.3

EBIT adj (m)

4.6

6.3

6.1

Net profit adj (m)

2.1

3.3

3.1

Net fin. debt (m)

11.0

10.3

10.5

FCF (m)

-1.7

2.7

2.8

EPS adj. and fully dil.

0.92

1.42

1.36

Consensus EPS

0.95

1.37

1.78

Net dividend

0.80

1.22

1.18

Clasquin is fully benefiting from its flexibility edge versus global freight forwarders in a context of a nascent recovery of international freight. After a good end of 2016, the freight forwarder once again outperformed the market average with significant improvement of key metrics all across the board (Volume, GP, GP/unit). We have a Buy rating on the stock arguing that the combined effect of the normalisation of freight rates and sustained volume will be amplified by slower growth in opex,, thus advocating for earnings recovery in 2017. Acceleration in volume growth, GP/Unit normalising

FY to 31/12 (EUR)

12/16E

12/17E

12/18E

P/E adj and ful. dil.

30.4

19.7

20.5

EV/EBITDA

11.2

9.3

9.6

EV/EBIT

17.2

12.6

13.1

FCF yield

-2.6%

4.1%

4.3%

Dividend yield

2.9%

4.4%

4.2%

Net fin.debt/EBITDA

1.5

1.2

1.3

Gearing

46.3%

40.2%

39.7%

ROIC

9.6%

12.0%

11.1%

EV/IC

2.4

2.3

2.2

Key metrics came up nicely in Q1, supported by the improved momentum of the global freight market. Clasquin performed stronger than the market in average: 1) quarterly Volume shipped grew strongly in Ocean and Air, 12% and 26%, significantly above market (+4% in Ocean, +6/7% in Air); 2) gross profit increased by 8.3%, above our expectations (+4.2% QOQ). On a LFL basis, growth rate is 4.5% after accounting for FX effect of 1pp and changes in scope of 2.7pp (Art Shipping in May 2016, new offices in Chile and Portugal). The growth is notable in Air (+18%) and more modest in Ocean (+3%); 3) GP/unit ratios are normalising. In Air, the ratio is evolving in line with historical standards (EUR263) after a +9% QOQ solid progression. In ocean, the GP/unit is down 2.5% QOQ to EUR279m, still under pressure. It however stands significantly above last year's low in Q2-

Q3 (c .EUR265). In the early stage of a market recovery, Clasquin is fully leveraging on its highly flexibility profile compared to global freight 36‌‌‌

forwarders who deal with larger customers and, as a result, tend to be

34

32

more committed on rates. We expect Clasquin to outperform in Q2 again

given that the repricing of large contracts for major freight forwarders are

not taking place before May/June. 30

28

Gross Profit (EURm)

Q1-17 reported

Q1-17 KECH est.

Q1-16 reported

AIR

4.6

4.1

3.9

%Growth

17.9%

5.0%

-9.3%

SEA

7.0

7.1

6.8

%Growth

2.9%

5.0%

6.3%

Other overseas

2.7

2.3

2.4

%Growth

17.4%

2.0%

228.6%

Others

0.2

0.3

0.3

Growth

-33.3%

-8.3%

50.0%

Total

14.5

13.9

13.4

Growth

8.3%

4.2%

14.7%

26

24

22

Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17

Price

DJ Stoxx 600 (rebased)

Kepler Cheuvreux and the issuer have agreed that Kepler Cheuvreux will produce and disseminate investment research on the said issuer as a service to the issuer.‌

IMPORTANT. Please refer to keplercheuvreux.comdisclaimer for "Important disclosures" and analyst certification(s).

keplercheuvreux.com

This research is the product of Kepler Cheuvreux, which is authorised and regulated by the Autorité des Marché Financiers in France.

Clasquin Buy TP EUR 32.00

Key financials

FY to 31/12 (EUR)

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016E

2017E

2018E

Income Statement (EURm)

Sales

171.4

184.6

198.1

201.7

234.2

235.0

245.3

252.1

% Change

-4.3%

7.7%

7.3%

1.8%

16.1%

0.3%

4.4%

2.8%

EBITDA adjusted

7.9

6.0

6.3

4.6

8.2

7.1

8.5

8.3

EBITDA margin (%)

4.6%

3.3%

3.2%

2.3%

3.5%

3.0%

3.5%

3.3%

EBIT adjusted

5.7

4.1

4.5

3.1

6.3

4.6

6.3

6.1

EBIT margin (%)

3.3%

2.2%

2.3%

1.5%

2.7%

2.0%

2.6%

2.4%

Net financial items & associates

-0.5

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.1

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

Others

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Tax

-1.9

-1.4

-1.6

-0.9

-1.9

-1.5

-2.0

-2.0

Net profit from continuing operations

3.3

2.3

2.5

1.8

4.2

2.6

3.7

3.6

Net profit from discontinuing activities

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.7

-0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net profit before minorities

3.3

2.3

2.5

2.5

4.0

2.6

3.7

3.6

Net profit reported

3.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

3.3

2.1

3.3

3.1

Net profit adjusted

3.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

3.3

2.1

3.3

3.1

Cash Flow Statement (EURm)

Cash flow from operating activities

5.9

1.8

5.1

6.5

8.2

1.9

5.8

5.8

Capex

-2.7

-2.8

-2.8

-2.9

-2.4

-3.6

-3.1

-3.1

Free cash flow

3.1

-1.0

2.3

3.7

5.8

-1.7

2.7

2.8

Acquisitions & Divestments

0.2

-1.6

0.0

-1.8

-8.5

-0.6

0.0

0.0

Dividend paid

-2.9

-2.1

-2.0

-2.2

-2.1

-2.9

-1.9

-2.8

Others

0.0

-0.3

-0.5

-0.4

1.5

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

Change in net financial debt

0.5

-5.1

-0.1

-0.7

-3.2

-5.4

0.6

-0.2

Balance Sheet (EURm)

Intangible assets

6.1

7.7

8.4

11.4

17.3

19.1

19.9

20.5

Tangible assets

5.5

5.8

5.5

6.2

3.8

5.2

5.2

5.3

Financial & other non-current assets

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.8

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

Total shareholders' equity

22.3

22.3

22.2

23.3

23.8

23.8

25.7

26.5

Pension provisions

0.4

0.6

0.7

1.1

1.1

0.8

0.8

0.8

Liabilities and provisions

47.4

59.0

65.8

73.3

85.5

93.8

96.4

98.1

Net financial debt

-5.8

-0.2

-0.1

0.7

5.2

11.0

10.3

10.5

Working capital requirement

4.8

8.6

8.0

6.2

6.3

9.2

9.6

9.9

Invested Capital

16.3

22.0

21.9

23.8

27.3

33.5

34.7

36.7

Per share data

EPS adjusted

1.33

0.91

0.96

0.92

1.45

0.92

1.42

1.36

EPS adj and fully diluted

1.33

0.91

0.96

0.92

1.45

0.92

1.42

1.36

% Change

-9.7%

-31.4%

4.8%

-3.9%

57.8%

-36.6%

54.3%

-4.0%

EPS reported

1.33

0.91

0.96

0.92

1.45

0.92

1.42

1.36

Cash flow per share

2.54

0.80

2.20

2.84

3.57

0.81

2.51

2.54

Book value per share

9.12

9.17

9.15

9.22

9.42

9.03

9.67

9.82

Dividend per share

1.20

0.75

0.75

0.80

1.25

0.80

1.22

1.18

Number of shares, YE (m)

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.30

Ratios

ROE (%)

14.9%

10.0%

10.4%

10.0%

15.6%

10.0%

15.2%

14.0%

ROIC (%)

22.1%

13.6%

12.7%

8.9%

16.9%

9.6%

12.0%

11.1%

Net fin. debt / EBITDA (x)

-0.7

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.6

1.5

1.2

1.3

Gearing (%)

-26.1%

-0.8%

-0.5%

3.0%

21.9%

46.3%

40.2%

39.7%

Valuation

P/E adjusted

16.3

21.4

21.9

27.8

20.3

30.4

19.7

20.5

P/E adjusted and fully diluted

16.3

21.4

21.9

27.8

20.3

30.4

19.7

20.5

P/BV

2.4

2.1

2.3

2.8

3.1

3.1

2.9

2.9

P/CF

8.5

24.4

9.5

9.0

8.2

34.4

11.2

11.0

Dividend yield (%)

5.5%

3.8%

3.6%

3.1%

4.2%

2.9%

4.4%

4.2%

FCF yield (%)

6.3%

-2.2%

4.8%

6.2%

8.6%

-2.6%

4.1%

4.3%

EV/Sales

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

EV/EBITDA

5.8

7.7

7.9

13.7

9.2

11.2

9.3

9.6

EV/EBIT

8.0

11.4

11.1

20.3

12.1

17.2

12.6

13.1

Clasquin Buy TP EUR 32.00

Research ratings and important disclosures

The term "KEPLER CHEUVREUX" shall, unless the context otherwise requires, mean each of KEPLER CHEUVREUX and its affiliates, subsidiaries and related companies (see "Regulators" table below).

The investment recommendation(s) referred to in this report was (were) completed on 28/04/2017 6:31 (GMT) and was first disseminated on 28/04/2017 6:42 (GMT).‌

Prices in this report are taken as of the previous day's close (to the date of this report) on the home market unless otherwise stated.

Stock

ISIN

Disclosure (See Below)

Currency

Price

Clasquin

FR0004152882

8

EUR

28.00

Disclosure checklist - Potential conflict of interests

Source: Factset closing prices of 27/04/2017‌

Stock

Disclosure (See Below)

nothing to disclose

Companies mentioned

Key:

1. KEPLER CHEUVREUX holds or owns or controls 5% or more of the issued share capital of this company; 2. The company, or its major shareholder, directly or indirectly, holds or owns or controls 5% or more of the issued share capital of KEPLER CHEUVREUX; 3. KEPLER CHEUVREUX is or may be regularly carrying out proprietary trading in equity securities of this company; 4. KEPLER CHEUVREUX has been lead manager or co-lead manager in a public offering of the issuer's financial instruments during the last twelve months; 5. KEPLER CHEUVREUX is a market maker in the issuer's financial instruments; 6. KEPLER CHEUVREUX is a liquidity provider in relation to price stabilisation activities for the issuer to provide liquidity in such instruments; 7. KEPLER CHE UVREUX acts as a corporate broker or a sponsor or a sponsor specialist (in accordance with the local regulations) to this company; 8. KEPLER CHEUVREUX and the issue r have agreed that KEPLER CHEUVREUX will produce and disseminate investment research on the said issuer as a service to the issuer; 9. KEPLER CHEUVREUX has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the previous twelve months; 10. KEPLER CHEUVREUX may expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three months; 11. The author of, or an individual who assisted in the preparation of, this report (or a member of his/her household), or a person who although not involved in the preparation of the report had or could reasonably be expected to have access to the substance of the report prior to its dissemination has a direct ownership position in securities issued by this company; 12. An employee of KEPLER CHEUVREUX serves on the board of directors of this company; 13. As at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the subject company; 14. KEPLER CHEUVREUX and UniCredit Bank AG have entered into a Co-operation Agreement to form a strategic alliance in connection with certain services including services connected to investment banking transactions. UniCredit Bank AG provides investment banking services to this issuer in return for which UniCredit Bank AG has received a consideration or a promise of consideration. Separately, through the Co-operation Agreement with UniCredit Bank AG for services provided by KEPLER CHEUVREUX in connection with such activities, KEPLER CHEUVREUX has also a received consideration or a promise of a consideration in accordance with the general terms of the Co-operation Agreement; 15. KEPLER CHEUVREUX and Crédit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank ("CACIB") have entered into a Co-operation Agreement to form a strategic alliance in connection with certain services including services connected to investment banking transactions. CACIB provides investment banking services to this issuer in return for which CACIB has received a consideration or a promise of consideration. Separately, through the Co-operation Agreement with CACIB for services provided by KEPLER CHEUVREUX in connection with such activities, KEPLER CHEUVREUX has also received a consideration or a promise of a consideration in accordance with the general terms of the Co-operation Agreement; 16. UniCredit Bank AG holds or owns or controls 5% or more of the issued share capital of KEPLER CHEUVREUX. UniCredit Bank AG provides investment banking services to this issuer in return for which UniCredit Bank AG has received a consideration or a promise of consideration; 17. CACIB holds or owns or controls 15% of more of the issued share capital of KEPLER CHEUVREUX. CACIB provides investment banking services to this issuer in return for which CACIB has received a consideration or a promise of consideration; 18. A representative of UniCredit Bank AG serves on the board of directors of KEPLER CHEUVREUX; 19. Two representatives of CACIB serve on the board of directors of KEPLER CHEUVREUX. CACIB provides investment banking services to this issuer in return for which CACIB has received a consideration or a promise of consideration; 20. The recommendation presented in this document was disclosed to the issuer prior to publication and dissemination and was subsequently amended; 21. KEPLER CHEUVREUX has received or expected to receive compensation from this company for the provision of services of investments firms set out in Sections A and B of Annex I of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council within the previous twelve months; 22. KEPLER CHEUVREUX owns a net long position exceeding the threshold of 0.5 % of the total issued share capital of the issuer; 23. KEPLER CHEUVREUX owns a net short position exceeding the threshold of 0,5 % of the total issued share capital of the issuer; 24. KEPLER CHEUVREUX and Rabobank (Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A.) have entered into a Co-operation Agreement to form a strategic alliance in connection with certain services including services connected to investment banking transactions. Rabobank provides investment banking services to this issuer in return for which Rabobank will receive a consideration or a promise of consideration. Separately, through a Co-operation Agreement between with KEPLER CHEUVREUX and Rabobank, KEPLER CHEUVREUX provides services in connection with such activities. KEPLER CHEUVREUX also receives a consideration or a promise of a consideration in accordance with the general terms of the Co-operation Agreement; 25. Rabobank (Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A.) holds or owns or controls 5% or more of the issued share capital of Kepler Cheuvreux. Rabobank provides investment banking services to this issuer in return for which Rabobank has received a consideration or a promise of consideration; 26. A representative of Rabobank (Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A.) serves on the board of directors of KEPLER CHEUVREUX.

Organizational and administrative arrangements to avoid and prevent conflicts of interests

KEPLER CHEUVREUX promotes and disseminates independent investment research and have implemented written procedures designed to identify and manage potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its research business, which are available upon request. The KEPLER CHEUVREUX research analysts and other staff involved in issuing and disseminating research reports operate independently of KEPLER CHEUVREUX Investment Banking business. Information barriers and procedures are in place between the research analysts and staff involved in securities trading for the account of KEPLER CHEUVREUX or clients to ensure that price sensitive information is handled according to applicable laws and regulations.

It is KEPLER CHEUVREUX' policy not to disclose the rating to the issuer before publication and dissemination. Nevertheless, this document, in whole or in part, and with the exclusion of ratings, target prices and any other information that could lead to determine its valuation, may have been provided to the issuer prior to publication and dissemination, solely with the aim of verifying factual accuracy.

Please refer to www.keplercheuvreux.com for further information relating to research and conflict of interest management.

Analyst disclosures

The functional job title of the person(s) responsible for the recommendations contained in this report is Equity/Credit Research Analyst unless otherwise stated on the cover.

Name of the Research Analyst(s): Baptiste de Leudeville

Regulation AC - Analyst Certification: Each Equity/Credit Research Analyst(s) listed on the front-page of this report, principally responsible for the preparation and content of all or any identified portion of this research report hereby certifies that, with respect to each issuer or security or any identified portion of the report with respect to an issuer or security that the equity research analyst covers in this research report, all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about those issuer(s) or securities. Each Equity/Credit Research Analyst(s) also certifies that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) expressed by that equity research analyst in this research report.

Clasquin Buy TP EUR 32.00

Each Equity/Credit Research Analyst certifies that he is acting independently and impartially from KEPLER CHEUVREUX shareholders, directors and is not affected by any current or potential conflict of interest that may arise from any KEPLER CHEUVREUX activities.

Analyst Compensation: The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of the content of the research report attest that no part of the analyst's(s') compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed by the research analyst(s) in the research report. The research analyst's(s') compensation is, however, determined by the overall economic performance of KEPLER CHEUVREUX.

Registration of non-US Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of KEPLER CHEUVREUX, which is a non- US affiliate and parent company of Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. a SEC registered and FINRA member broker-dealer. Equity/Credit Research Analysts employed by KEPLER CHEUVREUX, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under FINRA/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. and may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Research ratings

Rating ratio Kepler Cheuvreux Q1 2017

Rating Breakdown

A

B

Buy

47%

53%

Hold

34%

28%

Reduce

16%

5%

Not Rated/Under Review/Accept Offer

3%

14%

Total

100%

100%

Source: KEPLER CHEUVREUX

A: % of all research recommendations

B: % of issuers to which material services of investment firms are supplied

12 months rating history

The below table shows the history of recommendations and target prices changes issued by KEPLER CHEUVREUX research department (Equity and Credit) over a 12 months period.

Company Name

Date

Business Line

Rating

Target Price

Closing Price

Clasquin (EUR)

29/04/2016 09:03

Equity Research

Hold

35.00

30.80

29/08/2016 07:30

Equity Research

Hold

31.00

30.99

22/09/2016 07:37

Equity Research

Hold

30.00

30.80

17/03/2017 09:31

Equity Research

Buy

32.00

28.70

Credit research does not issue target prices. Left intentionally blank.

Please refer to the following link https://research.keplercheuvreux.com/app/disclosure for a full list of investment recommendations issued over the last 12 months by the author(s) and contributor(s) of this report on any financial instruments.

Equity research

Rating system

KEPLER CHEUVREUX equity research ratings and target prices are issued in absolute terms, not relative to any given benchmark. A rating on a stock is set after assessing the twelve months expected upside or downside of the stock derived from the analyst's fair value (target price) and in the light of the risk profile of the company. Ratings are defined as follows:

Buy: The minimum expected upside is 10% over next 12 months (the minimum required upside could be higher in light of the company's risk profile).

Hold: The expected upside is below 10% (the expected upside could be higher in light of the company's risk profile).

Reduce: There is an expected downside.

Accept offer: In the context of a total or partial take-over bid, squeeze-out or similar share purchase proposals, the offer price is considered to be fairly valuing the shares.

Reject offer: In the context of a total or partial take-over bid, squeeze-out or similar share purchase proposals, the offered price is considered to be undervaluing the shares.

Under review: An event occurred with an expected significant impact on our target price and we cannot issue a recommendation before having processed that new information and/or without a new share price reference.

Not rated: The stock is not covered.

Restricted: A recommendation, target price and/or financial forecast is not disclosed further to compliance and/or other regulatory considerations. Due to share prices volatility, ratings and target prices may occasionally and temporarily be inconsistent with the above definition.

Valuation methodology and risks

Unless otherwise stated in this report, target prices and investment recommendations are determined based on fundamental research methodologies and relies on commonly used valuation methodologies such as Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), valuation multiples comparison with history and peers, Dividend Discount Model (DDM).

Valuation methodologies and models can be highly dependent on macroeconomic factors (such as the price of commodities, exchange rates and interest rates) as well as other external factors including taxation, regulation and geopolitical changes (such as tax policy changes, strikes or war). In addition, investors' confidence and market sentiment can affect the valuation of companies. The valuation is also based on expectations that might change rapidly and without notice, depending on developments specific to individual industries. Whichever valuation method is used there is a significant risk that the target price will not be achieved within the expected timeframe.

Unless otherwise stated, models used are proprietary. Additional information about the proprietary models used in this report is accessible on request.

KEPLER CHEUVREUX' equity research policy is to update research rating when it deems appropriate in the light of new findings, markets development and any relevant information that can impact the analyst's view and opinion.

Credit research

Rating system (issuer or instrument level)

Buy: The analyst has a positive conviction either in absolute or relative valuation terms and/or expects a tightening of the issue r's debt securities spread over a 6 months period.

Hold: The analyst has a stable credit fundamental opinion on the issuer and/or performances of the debt securities over a 6 months period.

Sell: The analyst expects of a widening of the credit spread to some or all debt securities of the issuer and/or a negative fundamental view over a 6 months period. Not covered: KEPLER CHEUVREUX' credit research team does not provide formal, continuous coverage of this issuer and has not assigned a rating to the issuer. Restricted: A recommendation, target price and/or financial forecast is not disclosed further to compliance and/or other regulatory considerations.

Clasquin SA published this content on 28 April 2017 and is solely responsible for the information contained herein.
Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 28 April 2017 08:54:17 UTC.

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