DEUTSCHE BANK AG Deutsche Bank Jochen Möbert | jochen.moebert@db.com
Research Talking point "Fewer crisis spots on the euro-area housing market"
Deutsche Bank Research
Fewer crisis spots on the euro-area housing marketAppendix for Deutsche Bank Research's Talking point
Jochen Möbert May 2017
jochen.moebert@db.com
House prices in Germany are rising, but relative to household income no overvaluation in overall market
Nominal house prices2000=100
Price-to-income ratioLong-term average = 100
280
250
220
190
160
130
100
70
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
DE ES IT FR NL
190
160
130
100
70
99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
DE ES IT FR NL
Sources: OECD, Deutsche Bank Research
Source: OECD
Austria and Belgium with high price momentum and the highest overvaluation in the euro area
Nominal house prices2000=100
Price-to-income ratioLong-term average = 100
220
190
160
130
100
70
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
AT GR IE BE FI PT
190
160
130
100
70
99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
AT GR IE BE FI PT
Sources: OECD, Deutsche Bank Research
Source: OECD
Substantial reduction of risk in the euro area France with the highest risk contribution to overvaluation
Price-to-income ratioDeviation from historical average (long-term average= 100)
Price-to-income ratioRMSE, deviation from historical average (long-term average = 100)
40
30
20
10
0
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Absolute deviation Root Mean-Square-Error
40
30
20
10
0
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
DE FR IT ES NL Rest (=EA11 - Big5)
National deviations are weighted with the size of the housing market (number of dwellings).
Sources: OECD, Deutsche Bank Research
National deviations are weighted with the size of the housing market (number of dwellings).
Sources: OECD, Deutsche Bank Research
Deutsche Bank AG published this content on 26 May 2017 and is solely responsible for the information contained herein.
Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 26 May 2017 09:50:14 UTC.
Original documenthttp://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000444276/Presentation:_Fewer_crisis_spots_on_the_euro-area_.pdf
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