SHOWS: HONG KONG, CHINA (APRIL 22, 2014) (REUTERS - ACCESS ALL)

SUNIL GARG, HEAD OF ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY RESEARCH, JPMORGAN

1. (QUESTION GRAPHIC)

'What is your outlook for the U.S. economy and do you have further expectations on the country's QE tapering?'

2. SUNIL GARG SAYING:

'Sure. See as far as the U.S. economy is concerned, our expectation is that the recovery is evolving on its own course. There is definitely some bumps across. I think recent statements from the Fed did talk a little bit about a delayed interest rate increase and I think that's a good guidance to read here. I think away from tapering, which is now proceeding along a pretty well flagged path, I think the biggest question to focus on is the pace of monetary policy normalization as in short term interest rates. Now again the Fed's recent statements did talk about staying lower for longer and that should I think support the markets. I do think though the Fed is going to be very data-dependent. And if we do see some of the slack being taken up in the economy, you will start to see policy getting normalized earlier. But at this point in time, it's fair to expect that the policy will remain accommodative for now. And that's the main focus as in short term interest rates.'

3. (QUESTION GRAPHIC)

'The dollar index has hit a two-week high. Do you see the dollar strengthening further going forward?'

4. SUNIL GARG SAYING:

'See, you can look at the two week movement and say it's hit a two-week high. But really the dollar index has been pretty flat on a year-to-date basis. There's been very, very range bound if anything with a little bit of a bearish bias. I think if you look at the exchange rate versus many other currencies, I think the outcome is going to be very different. For example, our expectation is that the dollar will strengthen against the Japanese yen, as in the yen will weaken. But at the same time, we also expect many Asian emerging currencies to be stronger against the U.S. dollar. We've seen the rupiah strengthen, we've seen the Indian rupee strengthen, we've seen some of the ASEAN currencies strengthen. The Korean won strengthened. And we think that some of this will continue, but against the yen, the dollar will be stronger.'

5. (QUESTION GRAPHIC)

'What are your views on the impact of QE tapering and interest rates on the Indian rupee and debt flows?'

6. SUNIL GARG SAYING:

'You see first of all, if you look at the interest rate outlook in India, our economists are calling for a non-consensus increase of fifty basis points in the second half this year. Obviously a lot of this is going to be dependent in how inflation evolves and what is the - how the macro variables evolve after the elections. But at this point in time, that is the expectation. Having said all of that, I think one of the biggest tailwinds for the country is a stronger currency, which helps give some flexibility to the Reserve Bank of India. Our expectation on flows is that it is going to be not very QE-dependent, or dependent on external macro variables as it was last year. But it's going to be a lot more dependent on domestic factors. You know we have definitely seen very strong inflows on a year-to-date basis. Last few days have definitely seen some consolidation. And you could probably see some more consolidation ahead of the election results in a couple of weeks' time. But in general, we are positive on flows continuing into India as we get into a cyclical recovery.'