DUBLIN (Reuters) - Ryanair (>> Ryanair Holdings plc) expects to post record profits this year despite Britain's vote to leave the European Union, but plans to cut millions of seats from London routes and shift them to more lucrative EU bases, the low-cost giant said on Monday.

Rival easyJet PLC last week said it was unable to give an earnings forecast in the aftermath of Brexit, while Germany's Lufthansa (>> Deutsche Lufthansa AG) warned on profit.

But while Ryanair said it faces a cocktail of risks from Brexit, Chief Executive Michael O'Leary said he "did not see the evidence to justify a cut" to a forecast for full-year profits of between 1.375 billion euros (£1.1 billion) and 1.425 billion euros, an increase of 13 percent.

"I don't think any other airline in Europe will be delivering or forecasting that kind of profit growth," O'Leary said.

"But all of the clouds on the horizon suggest there are significant risks to the downside in the second half of the year," he said referring to the company's financial year to the end of March.

O'Leary, one of the most prominent business campaigners for Britain to stay in the EU, referred to the 17 million voters who backed "Brexit" in the June 23 referendum as "idiots".

Ryanair said it was protected from the outcome by conservative initial guidance, lower dependence on UK revenues and the ability to shift capacity away from Britain to an extensive European network.

Even in the worst-case scenario where London fails to secure access to the EU single market and Open Skies travel area in its negotiations to leave the bloc, the risks to Ryanair would be "not material and will be manageable," O'Leary said.

If it hits its profit targets, Ryanair plans to return around 1 billion euros to shareholders through a share buyback and possibly through a special dividend in 2017, he said.

Its shares were up 5.6 percent at 11.51 euros at 1502 London time, up from a low of 10.46 euros after the June 23 vote.

CUTTING UK CAPACITY

To minimise further impact, Ryanair will start to trim capacity from UK airports this winter, cutting 600,000 seats from a planned 9 million at Stansted Airport this winter, although it will not close any routes.

Next year Ryanair will fly around 2 million fewer seats from a total planned 23 million from Britain and most of the 50 planes due for delivery next year will be allocated to non-British routes.

"We will pivot our growth away from UK airports and focus more on growing at our EU airports over the next two years," O'Leary said.

Eastern European-focused budget airline Wizz Air last week also reiterated its pre-Brexit profit forecast after announcing a similar strategy to shift significant capacity away from the UK market.

O'Leary said part of the reason Ryanair is not cutting its profit forecast is that it was more cautious in its initial guidance than its rivals and had Britain voted to remain in the EU, the company might now have been raising its forecast.

"I think pricing would have lifted if the 17 million idiots in the UK had voted to stay in the European Union."

LOWER FARES

O'Leary said Ryanair "responded immediately post-Brexit with lower fares," which will be down 8 percent in the six months to the end of September compared with an earlier forecast for a fall of between 5 and 7 percent.

Fares were 10 percent lower in the three months to the end of June compared to a fall of 8 percent in revenue per passenger reported by easyJet.

But the lower fares will allow the airline to increase passenger numbers to 117 million from an earlier forecast of 116 million.

Ryanair's policy is to maintain passenger numbers whatever the fare and then earn money on extras like fees for choosing seats and on-board refreshments.

Ryanair said it had already sold around 75 percent of its tickets for the three months to the end of September, compared to a rate of 65 percent reported by easyJet, reducing its exposure to a fall in the value of sterling after the vote.

Ryanair is also less dependent on Britain, which represents around a quarter of its revenue, compared to around half for easyJet.

(Reporting by Conor Humphries; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell and Adrian Croft)

By Conor Humphries

Stocks treated in this article : Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Ryanair Holdings plc, easyJet plc