Talking Points:
- EUR/USD Downside Targets in Focus Ahead of ECB Policy Meeting.
- Gold Eyes Key $1,179 Support as Bearish RSI Momentum Remains in Play.
- USDOLLAR Falls Back From Fresh Monthly-High Amid Mixed Data, Month-End Flows.
For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.
EUR/USD
- EUR/USD marks fresh monthly low of 1.2569 as Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) narrows to 0.3%, while core inflation unexpectedly slips to 0.7% from 0.9%.
- Downside objectives remain favored ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains bearish momentum & pushes deeper into oversold territory.
- DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows a 5.1% decline in open interest, but the ratio continues to favor a contrarian view as the ratio current sits at +1.38.
XAU/USD
- Gold looks poised for a further decline as USD strength persists; failure to close back above $1,224 (78.6% retracement) raises risk for a run at $1,179.
- Waiting for RSI to push back into oversold territory along with a break & close below $1,203 (1.618% expansion) for confirmation/conviction for another leg lower.
- Looks as though Gold will continue to trade more as a commodity rather than a currency as the Federal Reserve moves away from its easing cycle & boosts interest rate expectations.
Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!
Read More:
Price & Time: King Dollar
Next EUR/USD Leg Lower Begins; Trade Opportunities in EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 11051.55 | 11076.76 | 11010.77 | 0.13 | 126.07% |
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index coming off of a fresh monthly high (11,076) amid mixed batch of data along with profit-taking at month, quarter-end.
- Looks as though the USDOLLAR strength will get carried into October as the RSI remains the bullish momentum; would like to see a push higher into overbought territory to favor fresh highs.
- Will keep a close eye on the ISM Manufacturing survey’s employment component as U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls are projected to increase 217K in September; next topside targets are around 11,120 (1.618% expansion) to 11,138 (61.8% expansion).
Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!
Release | GMT | Expected | Actual |
NAPM-Milwaukee (SEP) | 13:00 | 61.00 | 63.18 |
S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (MoM) (JUL) | 13:00 | 0.00% | -0.50% |
S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JUL) | 13:00 | 7.40% | 6.75% |
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index n.s.a. (JUL) | 13:00 | 174.45 | 173.34 |
S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index n.s.a. (JUL) | 13:00 | -- | 167.32 |
S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY) | 13:00 | -- | 5.61% |
Chicago Purchasing Manager (SEP) | 13:45 | 62.0 | 60.5 |
Consumer Confidence (SEP) | 14:00 | 92.5 | 86. |
Fed's Jerome Powell Speaks on Government Debt | 14:45 |
Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar
--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.
Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand
Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.
New to FX? Watch this Video
Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums
original source
