Talking Points:
- EUR/USD Rebounds Ahead of ECB Meeting; Bearish RSI Momentum in Focus
- Watching Former Support on AUD/USD for Resistance; More Verbal Intervention from RBA?
- USDOLLAR Fails to Test April High (10,572) as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Disappoint
Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 10531.49 | 10558.6 | 10518.03 | -0.09 | 149.16% |
EUR/USD:
- Looks like EUR/USD will face a larger rebound ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting as a the Relative Strength Index (RSI) bounces back from oversold territory.
- Break of near-term bearish RSI momentum may drive the EUR/USD back towards former support around 1.3500-20.
- Nevertheless, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long on EUR/USD, with the ratio standing at +1.61, which continues to favor a long-term bearish outlook.
AUD/USD:
- Will watch former support around 0.9330-40 for new resistance ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy meeting; rates expected to stay on hold at 2.50%.
- Bearish RSI momentum continues to favor approach to ‘sell bounces’ as the bigger range comes into play; key support stands at 0.9200-10.
- RBA statement may have most meaningful impact on AUD/USD as Governor Glenn Stevens toughens verbal intervention on the Australian dollar.
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USDOLLAR Daily
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
- Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index fails to test April high (10,572) as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) climbs 209K, jobless rate unexpectedly upticks to 6.2% from 6.1%.
- Will continue to watch the bullish RSI momentum, but break back below 70 may generate larger pullback.
- Watching former resistance region around 10,440-50 for new support as the USDOLLAR breaks out of bearish trend.
- Interim Resistance: 10,555 (50.0% retracement) to 10,561 (100% retracement)
- Interim Support: 10,440 (78.6% retracement) to 10,450 Pivot
Release | GMT | Expected | Actual |
Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (JUL) | 12:30 | 230K | 209K |
Unemployment Rate (JUL) | 12:30 | 6.1% | 6.2% |
Labor Force Participation Rate (JUL) | 12:30 | 62.9% | |
Change in Private Payrolls (JUL) | 12:30 | 227K | 198K |
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (JUL) | 12:30 | 15K | 28K |
Underemployment Rate (JUL) | 12:30 | 12.2% | |
Change in Household Employment (JUL) | 12:30 | 131 | |
Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (JUL) | 12:30 | 15K | |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (JUL) | 12:30 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JUL) | 12:30 | 2.2% | 2.0% |
Average Weekly Hours (JUL) | 12:30 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
Personal Income (JUN) | 12:30 | 0.4% | 0.4% |
Personal Spending (JUN) | 12:30 | 0.4% | 0.4% |
Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (JUN) | 12:30 | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (JUN) | 12:30 | 1.7% | 1.6% |
Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JUN) | 12:30 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JUN) | 12:30 | 1.4% | 1.5% |
Markit Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL F) | 13:45 | 56.5 | 55.8 |
U. of Michigan Confidence (JUL F) | 13:55 | 81.8 | 81.8 |
ISM Manufacturing (JUL) | 14:00 | 56.0 | 57.1 |
ISM Prices Paid (JUL) | 14:00 | 58.0 | 59.5 |
Construction Spending (MoM) (JUN) | 14:00 | 0.5% | -1.8% |
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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