- U.S. Advance Retail Sales to Increase for the Sixth Time in 2014.
- Rise of 0.6% Would Match Fastest Rate of Growth Since April.
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Trading the News: U.S. Advance Retail Sales
The EUR/USD may face a further decline over the next 24-hours of trade should the U.S. Retail Sales report prop up interest rate expectations for the reserve currency.
What’s Expected:
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Why Is This Event Important:
A marked picked up in private sector consumption may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later, and we may see a growing number of central bank officials adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy as the board looks to conclude its asset-purchase program at the October 29 meeting.
Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario
Release | Expected | Actual |
Consumer Credit (JUL) | $17.350B | $26.006B |
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (AUG) | 2.1% | 2.1% |
Durable Goods Orders (JUL) | 8.0% | 22.6% |
The expansion in private sector credit along with the uptick in wage growth may prompt a strong consumption reading for August, and a better-than-expected print may put increased downside pressure on the EUR/USD as it raises the outlook for growth and inflation.
Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario
Release | Expected | Actual |
Non-Farm Payrolls (AUG) | 230K | 142K |
ADP Employment Change (AUG) | 220K | 204K |
Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Core (YoY) (JUL) | 1.5% | 1.5% |
However, sticky inflation paired with the slowdown in job growth may drag on household spending, and a dismal Retail Sales figure may prompt a larger correction in the dollar as it limits the Fed’s scope to move away from the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) ahead of schedule.
How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)
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Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Retail Sales Climb 0.6% or Greater
- Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
- If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: Household Consumption Disappoints
- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EUR/USD Daily
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Will continue to favor downside targets as RSI holds in oversold territory & retains bearish momentum.
- Interim Resistance: 1.3220 (50.0% retracement) to 1.3230 (61.8% retracement)
- Interim Support: 1.2800 pivot to 1.2810 (61.8% expansion)
Read More:
Price & Time: The AUD/USD Cold Shoulder
AUDUSD Scalps Target Head and Shoulders Break- Bearish Sub 9236
Impact that the U.S. Retail Sales report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month
Period | Data Released | Estimate | Actual | Pips Change (1 Hour post event ) | Pips Change (End of Day post event) |
JUL 2014 | 8/13/2014 12:30 GMT | 0.2% | 0.0% | +27 | +3 |
July 2014 U.S. Advance Retail Sales
U.S. retail sales came in flat from June amid estimates of a 0.2% increase, largely drive by declines in Motor Vehicles, General Merchandise and Department Stores sales. The slowdown in consumption may indicate that the U.S. economy is expanding at a slow pace early on in the third quarter of 2014. The greenback weakened immediate following the dismal print, with the pair EUR/USD climbing above 1.3400, but the market reaction was short-lived as the pair ended the day at 1.3360, only 3 pips above the level prior to the release.
--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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