Talking Points
- EURUSD weekly opening range highlights 1.1356-1.1443 zone
- Immediate short bias at risk heading into Eurozone/ U.S. event risk
- Updated targets & invalidation levels
EURUSD 30min
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook: EURUSD failed to rally through the May high-day close at 1.1443 with the pullback now approaching the weekly opening range lows at the 1.1356/67 support zone highlighted last week. The focus remains on this key range heading into tomorrow’s U.S. Retail Sales release with a rally to ultimately offer more short-entries higher up.
The immediate risk remains for a swing higher from here with a breach targeting 1.1465, 1.1495 & key resistance at 1.1512/16. This region is defined by the 61.8% retracement of the recent decline & the August 25th reversal-day close and we’ll reserve this region as our bearish invalidation level (favorable short entries here). A break lower keeps the short-bias in play targeting the February high-day close at 1.1320 backed by 1.1260 and the April lows at 1.1214. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount!
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- A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows traders remain net short euro- the ratio stands at -1.44 (41% of traders are long)- weakbullish reading
- Short positions are 7.1% lower than yesterday and 4.4% below levels seen last week.
- Open interest is 0.8% lower than yesterday and 4.7% above its monthly average.
- Ratio has been negative since 3/10 – near-term reduction in short exposure suggests the long bias remains at risk
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Relevant Data Releases This Week
Other Setups in Play:
- GBP/AUD: Beware of Near-term Exhaustion- Resistance 1.9854/86
- GBP/USD Bearish Sub-1.4588 Ahead of Upcoming Event Risk
- AUD/CAD Into Key Support- Monthly Opening Range In Focus
- EUR/USD Approaching Initial Support- Levels to Watch for NFPs
- GBP/USDReversal Approaching Initial Support Targets
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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
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