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FACEBOOK INC (FB)

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FACEBOOK A : Finally, doesn't like...

05/21/2012 | 11:38am
Opinion : Bearish under USD 39
Target price : USD 25
Stop loss: USD 39.1
NASDAQ
Internet Services
Facebook, the IPO of the year disappointed markets with a cold reception on Friday May 21th. Launched at USD 38 at 11 am, the stock briefly touched USD 43 before getting back to USD 38. On Monday 21th, the stock opens at USD 35.

One must say that the initial valorization of Facebook business did not really convinced analysts. With a price earnings ratio at 153x the estimates for 2012, the company is one of the most expensive on NASDAQ index. Facebook business keeps woolly and earnings per share are revised downward.

Technically the stock is falling down heavily. We observed a USD 10 decline between the highest price recorded during the IPO session and the lowest price recorder during the second session. The massive volumes observed on this security could be the proof that current stockholders are abandoning Facebook'share.

Our team advises investors to take a selling position on Facebook due to fundamentals elements and technical behavior. Our target is on the USD 25 area and a stop loss is engaged on USD 39.1, level of invalidation of our strategy.
FACEBOOK A : FACEBOOK A : Finally, doesn't like...
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Financial Ratios

Size 2014e 2015e
Capitalization 205 404 M$ -
Entreprise Value (EV) 194 962 M$ 189 476 M$
Valuation 2014e 2015e
PER (Price / EPS) 64,9x 49,9x
Capitalization / Revenue 16,8x 12,5x
EV / Revenue 15,9x 11,5x
EV / EBITDA 24,2x 17,7x
Yield (DPS / Price) - -
Profitability 2014e 2015e
Operating Margin (EBIT / Sales) 56,1% 55,1%
operating Leverage (Delta EBIT / Delta Sales) 1,45x 0,93x
Net Margin (Net Profit / Revenue) 25,6% 27,0%
ROA (Net Profit / Asset) 21,0% 22,7%
ROE (Net Profit / Equities) 22,6% 24,2%
Rate of Dividend - -
Balance Sheet Analysis 2014e 2015e
CAPEX / Sales   17,9% 16,4%
Cash Flow / Sales (Taux d'autofinancement) 42,3% 39,0%
Capital Intensity (Assets / Sales) 1,22x 1,19x
Financial Leverage (Net Debt / EBITDA) -1,30x -1,49x
Income Statement Evolution
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