Talking Points
- GBPAUD September opening range break keeps long bias in focus
- Key resistance in view- long scalps at risk
- Event risk on tap this week
GBP/AUD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- GBPAUD Testing key resistance range 1.8392 – 1.8433- bearish invalidation
- Breach targets resistance objectives at 1.8526, 1.8723/63, 1.8969 & 1.0989
- Key support 1.8175- 1.8211- bullish invalidation
- Break targets support objectives at 1.7860, 1.7756
- Daily RSI breach above 60- constructive
- First directional breach of 60-threshold since November 20th- bullish
- Event Risk Ahead: China Manufacturing PMI tonight, RBA Steven’s Remarks at Melbourne Economic Forum on Wednesday, BoE’sCarney speech in Wales on Thursday
GBP/AUD 30min Chart
Notes: The GBPAUD is trading within the confines of an ascending Andrew’s Pitchfork formation off the September low. Although our medium-term bias remains weighted to the topside on account of the break of the monthly opening range, the pair has now come into a key resistance region between 1.833/44. Intra-day divergence along the highs here suggests that long-exposure below this region is now vulnerable and if we close sub-1.8433, we’ll be looking to play near-term shorts into pitchfork support. Inevitably we will look to buy this pair lower down with only a break below key support at 1.8175-1.8200 invalidating medium-term bias.
Bottom line: look for a reaction of this level with short triggers in momentum sub-1.8444 favoring near-term short-scalps. A breach above keeps the long focus in play with such a scenario targeting subsequent topside resistance objectives into fresh 6-month highs. Note that there is some event risk on this week with China manufacturing PMI numbers tonight and speeches from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens & BoE Governor Mark Carney later in the week likely to fuel added volatility in Aussie and Sterling crosses. The average true range here is rather healthy with a quarter of the daily ATR suggesting profit targets of roughly 40pips. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets | Timeframe | Level | Technical Relevance |
Resistance Target 1 | Daily / 30min | 1.8433/44 | 61.8% Ext / 2.618% Ext |
Bearish Invalidation | 30min | 1.8475 | September High |
Break Target 1 | 30min | 1.8500 | Soft Resistance / Big Figure |
Break Target 2 | 30min | 1.8526/37 | Monthly R1 / 78.6% Ext |
Break Target 3 | Daily / 30min | 1.8600 | Big Figure / March Swing High |
Break Target 4 | 30min | 1.8691 | Soft Resistance / Jan 2nd Swing High |
Break Target 5 | Daily / 30min | 1.8722/63 | 78.6% Retracement / 100% Ext |
Support Target 1 | Daily / 30min | 1.8392 | 61.8 Extension |
Support Target 2 | 30min | 1.8320 | 50% Retracement |
Support Target 3 | 30min | 1.8289 | 61.8% Retrace / ~Pitchfork Support |
Support Target 4 | 30min | 1.8245 | 78.6% Retracement |
Bullish Invalidation | Daily / 30min | 1.8175 – 1.8211 | Wkly ORL / 200DMA / Aug & June High / 50% Retrace / Central Pivot |
Break Target 1 | 30min | 1.8125 | Soft Support / Pivot |
Break Target 2 | 30min | 1.8078 | Last Week’s ORH |
Break Target 3 | Daily / 30min | 1.7993 – 1.800 | 38.2% Retrace / Big Figure |
Average True Range | Daily (20) | 163 | Profit Targets 37-41pips |
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
- AUDNZD Scalps Targets Key Inflection Range - 1.1020 Critical Support
- AUDJPY Outside Reversal Day- Scalps Favor Buying Dips Above 96.38
- EURUSD Short Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC- 1.29 Bullish Invalidation
- AUDCHF Monthly Opening Range Setup- Scalps Target Key Support
- AUDUSD Scalps Target Head and Shoulders Break- Bearish Sub 9236
- GBPJPY Pitchfork Setup- Scalps Target Sunday Gap
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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