Talking Points:
- Euro Likely to Look Beyond German CPI Gain, Drops on Greece Worries
- British Pound Eyeing UK Manufacturing PMI for BOE Rates Outlook Cues
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The Euro underperformed at the start of the trading week, falling as much as 0.4 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move appeared to reflect Greece-related worries amid concerns that Athens will be unable to repay over €300 million due to the IMF on Friday, triggering events leading to insolvency and a possible ejection from the Eurozone.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars proved best-supported on the session, adding as much as 0.6 and 0.4 percent. The move appeared corrective after the two currencies suffered the deepest losses among the majors against the US Dollar last week. A pickup in Chinese Manufacturing PMI may have also helped. The gauge advanced to 50.2, showing the pace of factory-sector activity growth hit the fastest since November 2014.
May’s UK Manufacturing PMI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. A rebound to 52.5 is expected after the index dropped to a seven-month low at 51.9 in April. UK economic news-flow has increasingly underperformed relative to consensus forecasts over recent months, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may weigh on the British Pound as traders push out the expected timeline for the first post-crisis BOE interest rate hike.
The preliminary set of May German CPI data is likewise due to cross the wires. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to rise to 0.7 percent, the highest in seven months. The outcome seems unlikely to meaningfully drive the Euro however considering its limited implications for near-term ECB policy bets.
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Asia Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
23:30 | AUD | AiG Perf of Mfg Index (MAY) | 52.3 | - | 48.0 |
23:50 | JPY | Capital Spending (YoY) (1Q) | 7.3% | -0.2% | 2.8% |
23:50 | JPY | Capital Spending Ex Software (1Q) | 8.1% | 2.0% | 3.9% |
23:50 | JPY | Company Profits (1Q) | 0.4% | - | 11.6% |
23:50 | JPY | Company Sales (1Q) | -0.5% | - | 2.4% |
23:50 | JPY | Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (APR) | 2.63% | - | 3.01% |
00:30 | AUD | TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (MAY) | 0.3% | - | 0.3% |
00:30 | AUD | TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (MAY) | 1.4% | - | 1.4% |
01:00 | CNY | Manufacturing PMI (MAY) | 50.2 | 50.3 | 50.1 |
01:00 | CNY | Non-manufacturing PMI (MAY) | 53.2 | - | 53.4 |
01:30 | AUD | Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (1Q) | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.4% |
01:30 | AUD | Inventories SA (QoQ) (1Q) | 0.4% | 0.1% | -0.8% |
01:30 | AUD | Building Approvals (MoM) (APR) | -4.4% | -1.8% | 2.9% |
01:30 | AUD | Building Approvals (YoY) (APR) | 16.3% | 20.5% | 24.6% |
01:35 | JPY | Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI (MAY F) | 50.9 | - | 50.9 |
01:45 | CNY | HSBC China Manufacturing PMI (MAY F) | 49.2 | 49.2 | 49.1 |
05:00 | JPY | Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAY) | 1.4% | - | 5.0% |
06:30 | AUD | RBA Commodity Index AUD (MAY) | 79.2 | - | 81.0 |
06:30 | AUD | RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (MAY) | -19.5% | - | -20.7% |
European Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
07:30 | CHF | Manufacturing PMI (MAY) | 47.8 | 47.9 | Medium |
07:45 | EUR | Markit/ADACI Italy Manufacturing PMI (MAY) | 53.6 | 53.8 | Low |
07:50 | EUR | Markit France Manufacturing PMI (MAY F) | 49.3 | 49.3 | Low |
07:55 | EUR | Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (MAY F) | 51.4 | 51.4 | Medium |
08:00 | EUR | Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (MAY F) | 52.3 | 52.3 | Medium |
08:30 | GBP | Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA (MAY) | 52.5 | 51.9 | High |
12:00 | EUR | German CPI (MoM) (MAY P) | 0.1% | 0.0% | High |
12:00 | EUR | German CPI (YoY) (MAY P) | 0.7% | 0.5% | High |
12:00 | EUR | German CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAY P) | 0.1% | -0.1% | Medium |
12:00 | EUR | German CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAY P) | 0.6% | 0.3% | Medium |
Critical Levels
CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
EURUSD | 1.0813 | 1.0893 | 1.0940 | 1.0973 | 1.1020 | 1.1053 | 1.1133 |
GBPUSD | 1.5080 | 1.5185 | 1.5238 | 1.5290 | 1.5343 | 1.5395 | 1.5500 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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