Price & Time: Make Or Break For AUD/USD

Talking Points

• EUR/USD stalls just shy of key Gann pivot
• USD/CAD rebounds off key support zone
• AUD/USD nearing key long-term retracement

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

• EUR/USD failed Monday near the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.2580
• Our near-term trend bias is negative in the exchange rate while below 1.2580
• A close under 1.2440 is now needed to confirm a resumption of the broader decline
• A very minor turn window is eyed today
• A close over 1.2580 would turn us positive on EUR/USD

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.2580.

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

• USD/CAD found support on Tuesday from just above the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.1250
• Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/CAD while above 1.1250
• A move through 1.1355 is needed to trigger a more important leg higher in the exchange rate
• A minor turn window is eyed today
• A close under 1.1250 would turn us negative on USD/CAD

USD/CAD Strategy: Like the long side whilst over 1.1250.

Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

AUD/USD has come under steady pressure since filling the November 3rd gap earlier this week. The break of a key downside pivot at .8695 this morning has prompted an aggressive mover lower which raises the possibility that the broader downtrend is trying to reassert itself. However, cyclical analysis suggests that time might be running out for the bears as another turn window is eyed on Thursday/Friday. AUD/USD needs to break below the key long-term retracement level at .8545 (50% retracement of 2008-2011 advance) before the end of the week to invalidate this potential positive cyclicality and confirm a resumption of the broader decline. Failure to gain traction under .8545 will warn that the November (upside) corrective process is not yet quite finished.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX