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GOLD : Mixed situation...

01/04/2013 | 10:36am
Opinion : Bearish under USD 1794
Target price : USD 1542

Early this year, it is time to draw up a review of the evolution of gold, which shows the annual increases since 2001. With a performance of 7% in 2012 the growth is slowing and evolution is much less than most equity indices. However, the year-end at 1675 dollars validate an eleventh consecutive annual increase.

The upward trend this year is two times less than in 2011 and despite the massive interventions of the Federal Reserve (Operation Twist, QE). In addition, a better anticipation of the economic situation resulted in arbitration into riskier assets.

The role of "safe haven" does not seem to have the favor of investors while some issues were still not resolved at the end of the year (fiscal cliff). During the last sessions of the year, a significant resurgence in risk aversion (evidenced by an increase in the VIX from 15.5 to 23), had no positive effect on the precious metal that had lost 2%, during the same period.

Technically, in weekly data, the yellow metal has formed a large trading range USD 1560/1880. This area can be likened to a running out of steam after a long bullish phase (weekly chart), but the breakdown of USD 1670 degrades the short term configuration.

Unless renewed major tensions that would allow recovery of assets called “safe haven”, we are in favor of a bearish movement on the gold with line of sight to USD 1560. The bearish scenario could eventually be extended in case if this level is broken.

GOLD : GOLD : Mixed situation...

Etienne Veber
© 2013

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