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Goldman to Take a $5 Billion Charge Related to New Tax Law--5th Update

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12/29/2017 | 09:44pm CET
By Liz Hoffman 

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Friday it would take a $5 billion earnings charge related to the recent tax overhaul, setting up its first quarterly loss in six years.

Companies from Wall Street to the heartland are wrestling with the immediate implications of the most sweeping changes to the nation's tax code in three decades, even as they stand to gain long-term. Goldman's announcement follows similar estimates from a handful of other firms, many of them global banks, and hints that a vast one-time jolt will be coming to U.S. corporate earnings in the new year.

Under one estimate, companies in the S&P 500 index could be forced to take tax-related earnings charges of $235 billion -- about 1% of their combined market value.

In Goldman's case, the charge will push it into a quarterly loss for the first time since 2011 and wipe out much of its full-year profits. But the firm, like its brethren on Wall Street and across much of corporate America, will be a winner in the long run as they enjoy the lowest U.S. corporate tax rate in eight decades and get new flexibility in how they fund themselves, invest in the business, and return capital to shareholders.

"They will make this back and then some," said Devin Ryan, an analyst at JMP Securities. "Tax reform is a positive for Goldman Sachs."

Goldman shares fell 1% in early trading, suggesting some investors were taken aback by the size of the charge, but they recovered most of the slide. Analysts had expected Goldman to take a tax-related earnings hit, with estimates ranging from $3 billion to $6 billion.

About two-thirds of the hit, or $3 billion, is related to a newly enacted, one-time tax on U.S. companies' overseas earnings. Goldman had $31 billion parked offshore at the end of 2016, much of it in cash that will now be subject to a one-time tax of 15%.

Zion Research Group estimates that S&P 500 companies will book quarterly hits of $235 billion in the coming weeks on the $2.8 trillion they have amassed in foreign operations. Drugmakers and technology firms, whose mazes of global intellectual-property arrangements rely heavily on subsidiaries in low-tax countries, account for more than two-thirds of the total.

Just five companies -- Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Pfizer Inc., Oracle Corp. and Cisco Systems Inc. -- account for one-third, according to Zion's estimates. Drugmaker Amgen Inc., which has nearly $40 billion parked abroad, said last week that it expects to incur a tax expense of at least $6 billion because of the new law.

In certain cases, companies' long-term tax rates may rise. But they will gain flexibility: Many high-technology companies have twisted themselves into fiscal knots to avoid paying taxes on overseas cash, including loading up on debt here at home and putting off domestic investments.

Others are sharing the bounty with employees. AT&T Inc., Comcast Corp. and Bank of America Corp. are granting one-time bonuses of $1,000. Booking those expenses before year-end would let the companies deduct the costs under their old, higher rates.

In a similar move, Goldman will deliver some stock compensation owed to top executives a few weeks early in order to generate tax savings for the firm, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The bank expects to save $140 million by delivering stock to about 300 employees in high-tax states like New York and California, the person said. Ordinarily those shares, which were earned in prior years, would be delivered next month.

Shareholders are likely to benefit, too. By removing incentives to park cash overseas, the new tax law frees up billions of dollars that could go toward buybacks and dividends for investors.

One study found that in 2004, when American companies got a chance to bring foreign cash home at lower tax rates, 94 cents of every repatriated dollar was returned to shareholders.

Meanwhile, Goldman will also write down the value of deferred tax assets, which are past losses and other items that can be used to defray future tax bills. Goldman has about $5 billion of these credits, which are less valuable going forward because the corporate tax rate will be lower.

Deferred-tax assets aren't unique to banks, but Wall Street firms racked up huge losses during the financial crisis and so tend to have a lot of them. Citigroup Inc. has said it would take a $20 billion earnings charge from writing down its $46 billion of deferred-tax assets as well as for taxes assessed on its overseas profits.

Bank of America expects to take a $3 billion hit on its $19 billion stash, while Credit Suisse Group AG and Barclays PLC have announced smaller charges in recent days.

In the long run, though, these firms will be among the biggest beneficiaries of the new tax system. The law, signed last week by President Donald Trump, reduces the headline corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, its lowest level since 1939.

Banks are relatively high taxpayers because they get fewer of the breaks, such as for research and development, that are available to technology or pharmaceutical companies. So they benefit more from the rate reduction.

Goldman has averaged a 30% tax rate over the past three years, and Mr. Ryan estimates an earnings benefit of 5% to 10% a year going forward. Morgan Stanley Chief Executive James Gorman said in June that a 25% corporate tax rate -- higher than it ultimately landed -- would lift his bank's earnings by 15% a year.

--Joseph Walker and Cara Lombardo contributed to this article.

Write to Liz Hoffman at [email protected]

Stocks mentioned in the article
ChangeLast1st jan.
DJ INDUSTRIAL -2.94% 23957.89 Delayed Quote.-0.15%
NASDAQ 100 -2.50% 6682.2552 Delayed Quote.7.15%
NASDAQ COMP. -2.43% 7166.6766 Delayed Quote.6.68%
S&P 500 -2.52% 2643.69 Real-time Quote.1.43%
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Financials ($)
Sales 2018 33 206 M
EBIT 2018 11 618 M
Net income 2018 8 254 M
Debt 2018 -
Yield 2018 1,20%
P/E ratio 2018 12,28
P/E ratio 2019 11,02
Capi. / Sales 2018 3,00x
Capi. / Sales 2019 2,88x
Capitalization 99 473 M
Duration : Period :
Goldman Sachs Group Technical Analysis Chart | GS | US38141G1040 | 4-Traders
Technical analysis trends GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP
Short TermMid-TermLong Term
Income Statement Evolution
Mean consensus HOLD
Number of Analysts 28
Average target price 266 $
Spread / Average Target 1,5%
EPS Revisions
David Michael Solomon Co-President & Co-Chief Operating Officer
R. Martin Chavez Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President
James A. Johnson Independent Director
William W. George Independent Director
David Alan Viniar Non-Independent Director
Sector and Competitors
1st jan.Capitalization (M$)
MORGAN STANLEY8.84%102 332