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Four tales of the Trump trade, 100 days into his presidency

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04/28/2017 | 09:01pm CEST

The U.S. stock market rallied sharply in the wake of President Donald Trump's election on Nov. 8, fueled by the hopes for his agenda of cutting taxes, spending on infrastructure and reducing regulations.

But since he took office, the road toward enacting these proposals has proved bumpy, and several of the early stock winners have faded.

Here is a look at four "Trump trades" and how they have fared since his election and since his inauguration.


Barometer: Index of five hospital stocks (HCA Holdings (>> HCA Holdings Inc), Tenet Healthcare (>> Tenet Healthcare Corp), Universal Health Services (>> Universal Health Services, Inc.), Community Health Systems (>> Community Health Systems), LifePoint Health (>> LifePoint Health Inc))

Election to inauguration: -7.1 percent

Inauguration to present: +4.1 percent

President Trump's election sent shivers through investors in hospital operators because of his vow to immediately repeal the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare, which benefited hospitals by expanding insurance coverage.

But passing healthcare legislation has proved to be not so straightforward even though Trump's fellow Republicans control both chambers of Congress - which has helped the stocks recover. Republicans in the House of Representatives had to pull their first attempt at a bill in late March in a surprising setback for Trump.

The effort seemed to gain fresh momentum on Wednesday as a reworked version won key support from the conservative House Freedom Caucus, with hospital stocks falling after the news, but congressional aides said Thursday that House leaders decided against holding a vote on the healthcare overhaul this week.


Barometer: Index of six infrastructure-related stocks (Caterpillar (>> Caterpillar Inc.), Terex (>> Terex Corporation), Vulcan Materials (>> Vulcan Materials Company), AECOM (>> Aecom), Granite Construction (>> Granite Construction Inc.), Nucor (>> Nucor Corporation))

Election to inauguration: +13 percent

Inauguration to present: +2.4 percent

Trump's vow to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure helped lead to a windfall for many investors in industries such as construction, engineering, building materials and steel in the immediate aftermath of the election.

Trump has maintained strong support for an infrastructure package, including earlier this month saying his overhaul could top $1 trillion on roads, tunnels and bridges, while promising to cut red tape to speed approval of infrastructure projects. But performance of the stocks has leveled off as an infrastructure package has not yet materialized, while there are indications that putting such a massive program to work could be easier said than done.


Barometer: S&P 500 banks index <.SPXBK>

Election to inauguration: +20.8 percent

Inauguration to present: +3.1 percent

Perhaps no sector benefited as much from President Trump's election as banking in the immediate aftermath of his win. Optimism over his ability to roll back regulations boosted the group. Expectations that his agenda would stimulate the economy, promoting inflation and higher interest rates, also energized investors in banking stocks.

But after the stocks' big run, concerns about slowing loan growth have emerged for banks. Trump has pledged to roll back regulations and reforms put in place after the 2008 financial crisis, but his struggle so far in Congress left doubts about whether he can push through such deregulation.

Even though former Goldman Sachs executives populate his administration, Trump himself has been a bit of a wild card for banks, including recent comments that he would like to see interest rates stay low.


Barometer: Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks <.RUT>

Election to inauguration: +12.6 percent

Inauguration to present: +5.3 percent

Trump's plan to cut taxes broadly and reform the tax code gave investors reason to be optimistic about U.S. equities after his election, particularly investing in smaller companies that tend to be more domestically focused.

The promise of tax cuts is still driving the market, which has surged to near records in recent days as Trump was primed to propose slashing the corporate income tax rate to 15 percent. But Trump's struggle in his first legislative effort - repealing Obamacare - has sowed doubts about his ability to enact his plans.

Since Trump started in office, investors have also expressed concerns that his involvement in international issues in Syria, North Korea and elsewhere would distract from his domestic agenda.

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Nick Zieminski)

By Lewis Krauskopf

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09:01p Four tales of the Trump trade, 100 days into his presidency
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Financials ($)
Sales 2017 2 802 M
EBIT 2017 132 M
Net income 2017 82,5 M
Finance 2017 108 M
Yield 2017 0,97%
P/E ratio 2017 26,30
P/E ratio 2018 18,14
EV / Sales 2017 0,72x
EV / Sales 2018 0,61x
Capitalization 2 136 M
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Granite Construction Inc. Technical Analysis Chart | GVA | US3873281071 | 4-Traders
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Mean consensus OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts 11
Average target price 64,7 $
Spread / Average Target 21%
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James Hildebrand Roberts President, Chief Executive Officer & Director
William Howard Powell Chairman
Christopher S. Miller Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President
Laurel J. Krzeminski Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President
David H. Kelsey Independent Director
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