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HERMES INTL (RMS)

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HERMES INTL : Sees red!

03/20/2012 | 09:10am
Opinion : Bearish under EUR 259
Target price : EUR 236
Stop loss: EUR 236
EURONEXT PARIS
Apparel & Accessories

The world famous manufacturer of silk scarves is out of favor. Battered on stock exchange since the beginning of February, the stock recorded a loss of nearly 14% in six weeks. The presentation of the group good figures for 2012 has failed to reassure investors, highly concerned about the economic downturn in Southeast Asia and Japan.

The French luxury company is heavily exposed to Asian markets. Japan alone represents 18.9% of the group turnover. The weakness of yen has a strong impact on exportations to the Land of the Rising Sun which is struggling to recover one year after the earthquake that has severely affected it. Asia-Pacific, is facing a slowdown in growth that could put Hermes in trouble due to this area represents 26.3% of its sales.

Technically the stock is in trouble and has been trending down. Its moving averages operate a reversal which could drive the stock towards its EUR 236 short-term support. The value retraced half of its rise of last quarter 2011 and just push the average level of EUR 250. The bearish momentum should continue.

From fundamental data and technical configuration, our analysts suggest to take a short position on the Hermes'stock with an objective at EUR 236. A stop loss is set above the EUR 259 to avoid any bullish disappointment.

HERMES INTL : HERMES INTL : Sees red!
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Financial Ratios

Size 2014e 2015e
Capitalization 24 835 M€ -
Entreprise Value (EV) 23 690 M€ 23 219 M€
Valuation 2014e 2015e
PER (Price / EPS) 28,5x 25,3x
Capitalization / Revenue 6,04x 5,41x
EV / Revenue 5,76x 5,06x
EV / EBITDA 16,1x 14,1x
Yield (DPS / Price) 1,29% 1,45%
Profitability 2014e 2015e
Operating Margin (EBIT / Sales) 32,1% 32,3%
operating Leverage (Delta EBIT / Delta Sales) 0,88x 1,05x
Net Margin (Net Profit / Revenue) 22,8% 22,9%
ROA (Net Profit / Asset) 21,3% 21,7%
ROE (Net Profit / Equities) 34,8% 27,0%
Rate of Dividend 36,9% 36,7%
Balance Sheet Analysis 2014e 2015e
CAPEX / Sales   5,90% 5,55%
Cash Flow / Sales (Taux d'autofinancement) 24,3% 24,3%
Capital Intensity (Assets / Sales) 1,07x 1,06x
Financial Leverage (Net Debt / EBITDA) -0,78x -0,98x
Income Statement Evolution
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