HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt : Trade Report Germany

GERMANY

TRADE REPORT

IN BRIEF

• Uncertainties such as Brexit and weak global demand loom large. But German manufacturers' propensity

  to innovate leave it better positioned than other EU economies.

  Adding to the uncertain outlook, German elections are

  due in the summer next year. Even though the elections are not expected to lead to substantial changes in policy,

  Over the medium term, out projections also imply a

  structural slowdown in the rate of economic growth as the population ages. Although the recent surge in immigration has provided a temporary counterbalance to the declining working-age population, it will not be sufficient to completely offset this trend. While this will tend to dampen prospects for German exporters, innovative firms would still be able to expand production through increased automation and outsourcing of supply chains.

• Industrial and transport equipment will continue to be the key drivers of German goods exports, reflecting expertise and ongoing innovation in these industries.

• Germany's lesser-known services sector has growth opportunities, including in ICT and other service

sectors with complementarities to Germany's manufacturing industry.

The faltering trade outlook is testing the resilience of German manufacturers. However, they look set to meet that challenge with past performance suggesting a strong appetite for innovation in the manufacturing sector. Trade opportunities also exist within services, although policy reforms will be necessary to fully realise this potential.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The German economy has had a strong start to the year, although cyclical indicators published more recently have been more mixed, indicating that political and economic uncertainties are beginning to weigh on business sentiment. Indeed, machinery and equipment investment contracted in Q2 2016 and we expect business investment to remain weak in coming quarters. This is also consistent with the subdued trend in industrial production, which tends to be closely related to developments in global trade.

they are likely to incline businesses towards caution in the

interim. Reflecting these developments, our expectation is therefore that GDP growth will slow in the near term, from an estimated 1.7% in 2016 to 1.3% in 2017.

EXPORT CORRIDORS TO WATCH - GOODS

We expect German prowess in industrial machinery will continue to be the leading driver of merchandise exports in coming years. In particular, Germany's expertise in

100%

precision engineering means that it will continue to maintain

90%

a competitive advantage in producing machine tools for

manufacturers around the world. Germany is also at the forefront of technological advances in a range of industrial and electrical equipment. For example, Germany is pushing heavily for energy efficient technology in machinery; Germany has a strong presence in the emergence of 3D printing technology; and it is a world leader in robotics, meaning it is well placed to capture the trend towards automation in a variety of sectors.

Another key driver of growth will be German exports of transport equipment, which are expected to contribute close to a quarter of the increase in merchandise exports

across 2021-30. German exports in this sector include several

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40%

30%

20%

10%

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2016-20 2021-30

well-known brand-name cars, but also a significant quantity

ICT equipment

Chemicals

Machinery

of aerospace products. German capacities in this sector

Transport equipment Mineral fuels

Agricultural products

are embedded in a number of European cross-border cooperation-structures, such as the French-German

Other manufactures

Raw materials

Airbus consortium.

German exports of chemicals will also play a significant role, with pharmaceuticals the most dynamic sub-sector. German pharmaceutical companies invest heavily in R&D, with Germany placed first in clinical trials conducted in Europe and second worldwide. This will ensure that Germany will continue to export innovative new pharmaceutical products in coming years.

The major export destinations for German products will broaden in coming years, as rapid growth in emerging markets encourages exporters to look further afield for business opportunities. While the US will retain its position as Germany's largest export market in 2030, China is expected to move into second place, displacing France and the UK.

*Chart shows the contribution from each sector to the projected increase in total merchandise

exports over the relevant period. Source: Oxford Economics

Mineral fuels ICT equipment

Other manufactures Agricultural products

Raw materials

Chemicals

Total goods Transport equipment

Machinery

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Growth (% year)

Source: Oxford Economics

Source: Oxford Economics

Note: Ranking among the 24 trade partners covered in the HSBC Trade Forecast. Fastest-growing trade routes are listed in the Annex.

IMPORT CORRIDORS TO WATCH - GOODS

At a sector level, the key drivers of German merchandise imports are expected to be similar to exports, with industrial machinery and transport equipment the most important

110%

contributors to growth. In part, this reflects mutually beneficial

100%

trade in the same products, but it is also driven by cross-border

supply chains as German companies outsource production.

In addition to growing its existing supply chains across Europe, Germany will also look further afield to source components from emerging markets with increasingly sophisticated manufacturing capabilities. Other inputs to Germany's manufacturing sector, such as scientific apparatus and minerals manufactures will also continue to provide a key part of the economy's import growth.

Another key growth area for imports to Germany will be ICT equipment. As well as reflecting expanding consumer demand for high-tech gadgets, imports in this segment will

also increasingly feed into Germany's innovative manufacturing sector. This reflects ongoing developments in smart

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40%

30%

20%

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2016-20 2021-30

manufacturing, with processors going into everything from

ICT equipment

Chemicals

Machinery

Transport equipment Mineral fuels

Agricultural products

fork-lift trucks to metal cutting tools.

Other manufactures

Raw materials

Emerging economies are forecast to grow in importance as sources of German imports, with shipments from countries including Vietnam, China and India growing at rates of 7-8% a year in the decade to 2030. This will ensure that China becomes the largest source of imports to Germany by 2030, displacing France. Germany's manufacturing sector will also strengthen ties with industrialising countries in Eastern Europe - Poland is expected to retain its position as the third largest originator of imports in 2030.

*Chart shows the contribution from each sector to the projected increase in total merchandise exports over the relevant period.

Source: Oxford Economics

Mineral fuels

ICT equipment

Raw materials

Chemicals

Agricultural products

Total goods

Other manufactures

Machinery

Transport equipment

0 1 2 3 4 5

Growth (% year)

Source: Oxford Economics

Source: Oxford Economics

Note: Ranking among the 24 trade partners covered in the HSBC Trade Forecast. Fastest-growing trade routes are listed in the Annex.