While we were focusing on the neutrality of Brent in our previous analysis, it proved us wrong and is now sharply increasing since mid-January.
Stakeholders seem reassured by the overall economic situation and remain only focused on what the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, which expects a strong growth of the demand in the coming months.
New tensions that occurred in Iran explain the upward bounce of black gold.
Graphically, the oil from the North Sea comes back to a positive trend both on short and average time scales. The breakout from the top of the triangle identified last month has invalidated our bearish strategy. In this movement, Brent crude gained almost 10 dollars building on the lower limit of the triangle, coinciding with the 50-day moving average.
This configuration invalidates our previous bearish anticipation. To take advantage of the uptrend, investors will wait for a comeback of prices near the USD 115, what would be an appropriate pull-back to take a long position. The target will be set at USD 125/126 in the medium term by placing a stop loss.