MCGRAW HILL FINANCIAL INC LONDON and SAO PAULO, Sept. 23, 2015 /PRNewswire/ --
Platts Survey of Analysts
-- Cane crush: 29.09 million metric tons (mt)
-- Total recoverable sugar (ATR): 147.19 kilograms per metric ton
-- Sugar production: 1.711 million mt
-- Total ethanol production: 1.454 billion liters (ltr)
-- Hydrous ethanol production: 861 million ltr
-- Anhydrous ethanol production: 588 million ltr
-- Sugar mix: 42.23 %
-- Ethanol mix: 57.77%
Sugarcane crush volumes in the key Center-South region of Brazil in the first half of September are expected to total 29.09 million mt, according to a Wednesday survey of analysts conducted by Platts' Kingsman, an agriculture analysis and forecasting unit. Platts is a leading global provider of energy and commodities information and benchmark prices. The consensus estimate accounts for an average of five to six days of crush lost to rain.
Analysts' expectations for cane crush spanned 27.8 million mt to 30.7 million mt. Brazilian sugarcane industry group UNICA is expected to release its bimonthly sugarcane harvest data in the upcoming days.
Analysts at Platts' Kingsman forecast the cane crush at 29 million mt. The amount of sugar available (ATR) would be 147.5 kg/mt, up 1.61 kg/mt from second-half of August.
According to Platts' Kingsman, the peak of the ATR curve is approaching. Normally it occurs during the second half of September or the first half of October. However, this year it could peak earlier due to abnormal weather, flowering and the age of the cane.
In terms of ethanol production, the average of analysts' expectations points to total ethanol output of 1.454 billion liters, which would be a decrease of 513 million liters compared with H1 September 2014.
Hydrous ethanol production is expected to fall to 861 million liters, the lowest volume for 1H September since the 2006-07 crop when 639 million liters were produced, and closely compares to the volume of 859 million liters recorded in 1H July. If hydrous ethanol production proves to be 861 million liters, it would be a 27.5% drop from the same period a year ago. Nonetheless, analysts expect accumulated production this crop season to be up 10.31% year from a year ago.
For 1H September anhydrous output is expected to be 588 million liters, down 24.32% from the same period last year.
Hydrous sales in the domestic market during 1H September are expected to remain strong, reaching 750 million liters. This is because hydrous remains competitive at the pump in the main consumer states of the Center-South region, despite the recent hike in ex-mill hydrous prices.
Higher sugar prices in 1H September and the weaker Brazilian real exchange rate to the U.S. dollar were factors favoring sugar production, but poor weather has proved a detriment. The Center-South Brazil saw an average of six days lost to rain, but rain delays were even worse Sao Paulo and Parana states, both traditional producers of sugar.
According to a Platts survey of analysts, the sugar mix is expected to reach 42.23%, down 1.78 percentage points from a year ago.
CS Brazil Sugarcane Production Data - 1H September, 2015 (as of Sep 16)
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Category Unit Survey Kingsman UNICA (2014)
-------- ---- ------ -------- -----------
Cane crush (mil mt) 29.09 29 39.93
---------- ------- ----- --- -----
ATR (kg/mt cane) 147.19 147.5 149.81
--- ------------ ------ ----- ------
Sugar output (mil mt) 1,711 1,736 2,509
------------ ------- ----- ----- -----
Ethanol total (mil ltr) 1,454 1,431 1,967
------------- -------- ----- ----- -----
Hydrous output (mil ltr) 861 864 1,188
-------------- -------- --- --- -----
Anhydrous output (mil ltr) 588.72 567 777
---------------- -------- ------ --- ---
Sugar Mix (%) 42.23 42.6 44.01
--------- --- ----- ---- -----
Ethanol Mix (%) 57.77 57.4 55.99
----------- --- ----- ---- -----
CS Brazil Sugarcane Production Data - 2H August, 2015 (as of Sep 01)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Category Unit Survey Kingsman UNICA
-------- ---- ------ -------- -----
Cane crush (mil mt) 48.27 48.9 47.26
---------- ------- ----- ---- -----
ATR (kg/mt cane) 145.68 146 145.89
--- ------------ ------ --- ------
Sugar output (mil mt) 3,030 3,120 2,838
------------ ------- ----- ----- -----
Ethanol total (mil ltr) 2,283 2,270 2,299
------------- -------- ----- ----- -----
Hydrous output (mil ltr) 1,301 1,300 1,378
-------------- -------- ----- ----- -----
Anhydrous output (mil ltr) 948 970 920
---------------- -------- --- --- ---
Sugar Mix (%) 45.17 45.8 43.21
--------- --- ----- ---- -----
Ethanol Mix (%) 54.83 54.2 56.79
----------- --- ----- ---- -----
Sources: Platts Pre-Report Survey of Analysts Results-UNICA Sugarcane Crush, Kingsman, UNICA.
Visit the Platts and Platts' Kingsman websites for more information on sugar and biofuels.
Interviews may be arranged with the following sugar experts via Platts Communications: Platts Kingsman Sugar and Ethanol Analysts: Claudiu Covrig, Maria Nunez, Alessandra Rosete, and Beatriz Pupo; and Platts Sugar Pricing Specialists: David Elward, Nicolle Monteiro de Castro and Darren Stetzel. If you would like to receive this on a regular basis, please select Agriculture at this alerts sign-up link.
*Kingsman is Platts' agricultural business unit, acquired in 2012.
**In its bi-monthly cane harvest update, UNICA publishes a range of sugarcane harvest production metrics for Brazil's Center-South region, also broken down into Sao Paulo and other states.
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