MOODY'S CORPORATION ROSELAND, NJ--(Marketwired - Apr 22, 2015) - The ADP® Workforce Vitality Index (WVI), which measures the total wages paid to the U.S. private sector workforce, is 105.7 in the first quarter of 2015 (3Q2013=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted). The index rose by 3.7% between the first quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015. The movement in the index depends on the contributions of wages and hours of workers who have remained in the same jobs from the previous quarter, the wages and hours of workers who switched jobs during the quarter, and employment changes. See Table 1 below.
TABLE 1: ADP WORKFORCE VITALITY INDEX AND ITS COMPONENTS
| Year Over Year Growth | |||||||||
| Quarter | WVI | Holders' Hourly Wages | Holders' Hours | Switchers' Hourly Wages | Employment | ||||
| Q1 2015 | 3.7% | 1.9% | -0.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | ||||
| Q4 2014 | 4.8% | 2.7% | -0.1% | 8.2% | 2.2% | ||||
As illustrated in Chart 1, wage growth across regions and across industries within regions varies quite a bit, reflecting the differing dynamics of the regions. During the first quarter, the impact of declining energy prices dampened growth in the South, which had been very robust. As a result, the South no longer leads overall growth in the WVI. The West leads with growth of 5.9% over the past four quarters, followed by the Midwest with growth of 3.4%. After leading in 2014, the South has fallen into third place among the nation's regions with growth of only 3.3% during the past four quarters, down from 5.7% in the four quarters of 2014. The Northeast, as usual, lags behind due to weaker employment and wage growth. The WVI in the region advanced only 2.2%. This was primarily due to tepid wage growth.
To see Chart 1: ADP WVI Yearly Growth by Region, please click here: http://media.marketwire.com/attachments/201504/320540_RegionQ12015.jpg
Workforce vitality varies across industries. The strongest growth over the past year has been in construction, 9.5%, due to a combination of strong employment growth and an average increase in wages, though work week hours declined slightly. The WVI in Leisure/Hospitality increased by about 8%, with respectable gains in wages, employment and hours. Financial service workers enjoyed strong wage growth of 4.5% that boosted the WVI by 6.9%. Meanwhile, the weakest growth has been in the Manufacturing sector this quarter due to a reduction in weekly hours and weaker wage growth for the quarter. Professional/Business services and the Education/Healthcare sectors had modest growth mostly due to lackluster wage growth.
TABLE 2: ADP WVI AND ITS COMPONENTS BY INDUSTRY - YR/YR GROWTH
| Year Over Year Growth | |||||||||
| Industry Sector | WVI Q1 2015 | WVI | Holders' Hourly Wage | Holders' Hours | Employment Growth | ||||
| Construction | 109.4 | 9.5% | 4.1% | -0.3% | 5.7% | ||||
| Leisure/Hospitality | 111.8 | 7.7% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 3.8% | ||||
| Finance | 108.1 | 6.9% | 4.5% | 0.4% | 3.2% | ||||
| Trade | 107.8 | 3.1% | 2.3% | -0.3% | 2.0% | ||||
| Education/Health | 102.6 | 2.5% | 0.7% | -0.1% | 1.9% | ||||
| Professional Services | 103.0 | 2.4% | 0.7% | -0.8% | 4.9% | ||||
| Manufacturing | 104.9 | 1.9% | 2.6% | -2.0% | 1.9% | ||||
"Although the first quarter of 2015 saw slower wage growth in many industries, compared to a year ago growth is still in positive territory," said Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute®. "Certainly the severe winter had an impact, along with low oil prices affecting energy-related industries. However, the economy still appears to be growing and hopefully will accelerate now that better weather is here."
Women experienced stronger growth in workforce vitality than men, primarily because employment among women has advanced more quickly than it has for men as shown in Chart 2, 4.2% vs. 3.3%. Workforce vitality accelerated for women in the first quarter, while it decelerated for men. This is likely due to the mix of jobs held by men compared to women. First quarter weakness in manufacturing and construction would affect men more than women.
To see Chart 2: ADP WVI Yearly Growth: Female vs Male, please click here: http://media.marketwire.com/attachments/201504/320541_GenderQ12015.jpg
The 2nd Quarter 2015 ADP Workforce Vitality Report will be released on July 15, 2015.
About the ADP Workforce Vitality Report
The ADP Workforce Vitality Report was developed by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Moody's Analytics. It is an unprecedented, in-depth quarterly analysis of the overall vitality of the U.S. labor market based on actual data that identifies labor market trends and dynamics across multiple dimensions. These dimensions include employment growth, job turnover, wage growth and hours worked. In addition to the macro data presented in the report, there are also segment-specific findings by industry, state, gender, age, experience, and pay level. For more information about the report, please visit http://workforcereport.adp.com/.
About Moody's Analytics
Moody's Analytics helps capital markets and risk management professionals worldwide respond to an evolving marketplace with confidence. The company offers unique tools and best practices for measuring and managing risk through expertise and experience in credit analysis, economic research and financial risk management. By providing leading-edge software, advisory services, and research, including the proprietary analysis of Moody's Investors Service, Moody's Analytics integrates and customizes its offerings to address specific business challenges. Moody's Analytics is a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation (
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