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MOODY'S CORPORATION (MCO)
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Rating Action: Moody's Affirms Six Classes of WFCM 2015-C28

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04/20/2018 | 02:34pm CEST

Rating Action: Moody's Affirms Six Classes of WFCM 2015-C28.

Moody's Investors Service, ('Moody's') has affirmed the ratings on six classes in Wells Fargo Commercial Mortgage Trust 2015-C28, Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2015-C28 as follows:

Cl. A-1, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Apr 13, 2017 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. A-2, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Apr 13, 2017 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. A-3, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Apr 13, 2017 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. A-4, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Apr 13, 2017 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. A-SB, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Apr 13, 2017 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. A-S, Affirmed Aa2 (sf); previously on Apr 13, 2017 Affirmed Aa2 (sf)

RATINGS RATIONALE

The ratings on the P&I classes were affirmed because the transaction's key metrics, including Moody's loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, Moody's stressed debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) and the transaction's Herfindahl Index (Herf), are within acceptable ranges.

Moody's rating action reflects a base expected loss of 5.2% of the current pooled balance, compared to 5.3% at Moody's last review. Moody's base expected loss plus realized losses is now 5.1% of the original pooled balance, compared to 5.3% at the last review. Moody's provides a current list of base expected losses for conduit and fusion CMBS transactions on moodys.com at http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF215255.

FACTORS THAT WOULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS:

The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. Performance that falls outside the given range can indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had previously expected.

Factors that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings include a significant amount of loan paydowns or amortization, an increase in the pool's share of defeasance or an improvement in pool performance.

Factors that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings include a decline in the performance of the pool, loan concentration, an increase in realized and expected losses from specially serviced and troubled loans or interest shortfalls.

METHODOLOGY UNDERLYING THE RATING ACTION

The principal methodology used in these ratings was 'Approach to Rating US and Canadian Conduit/Fusion CMBS' published in July 2017. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

DEAL PERFORMANCE

As of the April 17, 2018 distribution date, the transaction's aggregate certificate balance has decreased by 2.4% to $1.14 billion from $1.16 billion at securitization. The certificates are collateralized by 97 mortgage loans ranging in size from less than 1% to 7.7% of the pool, with the top ten loans (excluding defeasance) constituting 48.2% of the pool.

Moody's uses a variation of Herf to measure the diversity of loan sizes, where a higher number represents greater diversity. Loan concentration has an important bearing on potential rating volatility, including the risk of multiple notch downgrades under adverse circumstances. The credit neutral Herf score is 40. The pool has a Herf of 31, the same as at Moody's last review.

Fifteen loans, constituting 14.1% of the pool, are on the master servicer's watchlist. The watchlist includes loans that meet certain portfolio review guidelines established as part of the CRE Finance Council (CREFC) monthly reporting package. As part of Moody's ongoing monitoring of a transaction, the agency reviews the watchlist to assess which loans have material issues that could affect performance.

There are no loans that have been liquidated from the pool. The one specially serviced loan is the Flatiron Hotel ($22.5 million -- 2.0% of the pool), which is secured by a 64-room hotel located in the Madison Square neighborhood of Manhattan, New York. The September 2017 trailing twelve month occupancy, average daily rate (ADR) and revenue per available room (RevPAR) were 85.1%, $221, and $180, respectively, compared to 83.1%, $218 and $180.8 as of December 2016. This was down from the occupancy, ADR and RevPAR from securitization of 87.4%, $244 and $213, respectively. The loan transferred to special Servicing in August 2017 due to imminent non-monetary default.

Moody's has also assumed a high default probability for five poorly performing loans, constituting 3.3% of the pool, and has estimated an aggregate loss of $15.1 million (a 29% expected loss on average) from these specially serviced and troubled loans.

Moody's received full year 2016 operating results for 98% of the pool, and full or partial year 2017 operating results for 58% of the pool (excluding specially serviced and defeased loans). Moody's weighted average conduit LTV is 115%, compared to 116% at Moody's last review. Moody's conduit component excludes loans with structured credit assessments, defeased and CTL loans, and specially serviced and troubled loans. Moody's net cash flow (NCF) reflects a weighted average haircut of 21.5% to the most recently available net operating income (NOI). Moody's value reflects a weighted average capitalization rate of 9.8%.

Moody's actual and stressed conduit DSCRs are 1.55X and 0.94X, respectively, compared to 1.53X and 0.94X at the last review. Moody's actual DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and the loan's actual debt service. Moody's stressed DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and a 9.25% stress rate the agency applied to the loan balance.

The top three conduit loans represent 21.8% of the pool balance. The largest loan is the TKG 2 Portfolio Loan ($87.5 million -- 7.7% of the pool), which is secured by a portfolio of five cross collateralized and cross defaulted retail shopping centers located in five states. Four of the five loans include the fee simple interest while one shopping center is on a long-term ground lease. As per the December 2017 rent roll, the weighted average occupancy of the portfolio was 95%, the same as of June 2016. This loan is interest-only throughout the term. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 125.8% and 0.80X, respectively, compared to 123.1% and 0.82X at the last review.

The second largest loan is the Harden Ranch Plaza Loan ($85.4 million -- 7.5% of the pool), which is secured by the borrower's interest in a 421,900 square foot (SF) portion of a 700,000 SF anchored retail center located in Salinas, California. The non-collateral shadow anchors include Wal-Mart and Target. The top three collateral tenants include Ashley Furniture (12.6% of NRA; lease expiration November 2027); Safeway (12.5% of NRA; lease expiration August 2021) and In-Shape Health Club (8.5% of NRA; lease expiration August 2022). The property was 98% leased as of December 2017, the same as of September 2016. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 107.6% and 0.88X, respectively, the same as at the last review.

The third largest loan is the Eastgate One Phases I-VII & XII Loan ($75 million -- 6.6% of the pool), which represents a pari passu portion of a $125 million mortgage loan. The loan is secured by a 860,513 SF office development located at the intersection of Eastgate Mall and Towne Centre Drive in San Diego, California. The collateral includes 16 office buildings that comprise part of the larger 24-building Eastgate Campus. All 16 office buildings are 2-stories tall and were constructed between 1998 and 2002 and subsequently renovated in 2013 and 2014. The collateral was 100% leased as of September 2017, compared to 84% leased in June 2016 and 76% in June 2015. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 107.3% and 0.93X, respectively, the same as at the last review.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions of the disclosure form.

The analysis includes an assessment of collateral characteristics and performance to determine the expected collateral loss or a range of expected collateral losses or cash flows to the rated instruments. As a second step, Moody's estimates expected collateral losses or cash flows using a quantitative tool that takes into account credit enhancement, loss allocation and other structural features, to derive the expected loss for each rated instrument.

Moody's did not use any stress scenario simulations in its analysis.

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Ruby Kaur

Associate Analyst

Structured Finance Group

Moody's Investors Service, Inc.

250 Greenwich Street

New York, NY 10007

U.S.A.

JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376

Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Matthew Halpern

Vice President - Senior Analyst

Structured Finance Group

JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376

Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Releasing Office:

Moody's Investors Service, Inc.

250 Greenwich Street

New York, NY 10007

U.S.A.

JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376

Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

(C) 2018 Electronic News Publishing, source ENP Newswire

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Financials ($)
Sales 2018 4 699 M
EBIT 2018 2 075 M
Net income 2018 1 436 M
Debt 2018 3 549 M
Yield 2018 1,05%
P/E ratio 2018 22,50
P/E ratio 2019 20,15
EV / Sales 2018 7,53x
EV / Sales 2019 6,97x
Capitalization 31 814 M
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Raymond W. McDaniel President, Chief Executive Officer & Director
Henry K. McKinnell Chairman
Michael S. Crimmins Chief Financial Officer, Senior VP & Controller
Tony Stoupas Chief Information Officer & Senior Vice President
Basil L. Anderson Independent Director
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