Msci : Irish Property Performance Moderates in Q1 2017 »

London - April 28, 2017 - MSCI Inc. (NYSE: MSCI), a leading provider of research-based indexes and analytics, recorded a 2.0% total return on Irish property for the first quarter of 2017 as per the SCSI/IPD Ireland Quarterly Property Index which was released last Thursday.

The total return indicates a continued moderation in performance of the Irish commercial property market. This is step down from returns seen in 2016, when quarterly returns averaged approximately 3.0%. By comparison, the IPD UK Monthly Property Index returned 2.3% in Q1 2017.

On a rolling annual basis, this represents a slowdown from 12.4% seen at the end 2016, to 11.2% for the year to the end of Q1 2017. In its recovery phase the market saw returns peaking at 40.0% in 2014, slowing to 25.0% in 2015. The average for the quarterly valued sample since 1995 is 12.9% p.a.

In terms of the components of total return, income return remained at 1.2%, while capital growth saw a marked slowdown from 2.4% in Q4 2016 to 0.8% in Q1 2017. This was driven by yield impact, a proxy for investor sentiment, which is down from 1.1% in Q4 2016 to a barely positive 0.0% in Q1 2017. Rental value growth also slowed from 2.1% in Q4 2016 to 1.1% in Q1 2017.

The slowdown was most marked in the retail sector, which slowed from 4.3% in Q4 2016 to 2.3% in Q1 2017, but in terms of the overall impact to the index, the slowdown in offices from 3.4% in Q4 2016 to 1.7% in Q1 2017 was the most noteworthy. Offices make up two-thirds of the index. Industrial properties remained the top performing sector with a total return of 3.2%, down from 4.6%.

"Property market returns going forward will be dependent on a number of factors, most notably external economic variables including Brexit. It is interesting to note in the SCSI surveys recently undertaken that our members are experiencing a continuing increase in Brexit related enquiries from UK companies investigating relocation options in Ireland."

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