Talking Points
- NZDUSD approaching key technical resistance
- Long scalp bias at risk sub-0.8000
- Event risk on tap this week
NZD/USD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- NZDUSD struggles at key resistance 7962/72- bearish invalidation
- Support at today’s low 7805
- Break targets key support at 7682-7706- bullish invalidation
- Support objectives at 7633, 7545, 7456
- Resistance breach targets 8053, 8122/37, Pitchfork bisector ~8225
- Daily RSI approaching 50- breach would be constructive
- Momentum support trigger pending- break below would be bearish
- Event Risk Ahead: New Zealand Business Manufacturing PMI tonight, US Industrial Production tomorrow, US Housing Data & University of Michigan on Friday
NZD/USD 30min Chart
Notes: The NZDUSD has breached above the weekly opening range, shifting our scalp bias back to the topside. The subsequent rally has taken the pair into a key resistance level just below the 80-handle and although our topside bias remains in effect above 7900, near-term we’ll look for a reaction off this threshold.
Bottom line: long exposure into the 80-handle is at risk with breach above needed to maintain our near-term scalp bias. That said, we’ll be looking for intra-day short-triggers while below this region. Caution is warranted as we head into event risk tonight from New Zealand and data out of the US tomorrow and Friday with the releases likely to fuel added volatility in Kiwi and Dollar based pairs. Follow the progress of trade setups like these and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets | Timeframe | Level | Technical Relevance |
Bearish Invalidation | Daily / 30min | 7962/72 | 61.8% Ext / 23.6% Retrace / Monthly Central Pivot |
Break Target 1 | 30min | 8000 | Big Figure / Soft Resistance |
Break Target 2 | Daily / 30min | 8045/60 | 100% & 150% Ext / February Low |
Break Target 3 | 30min | 8100 | Big Figure / Soft Resistance |
Break Target 4 | 30min | 8122/37 | 38.2% & 61.8% Retracement |
Break Target 5 | 30min | 8162/67 | August 2013 High / 50DMA |
Support Target 1 | 30min | 7900 | Soft Support / Pivot |
Support Target 2 | 30min | 7850 | 61.8% Extension |
Support Target 3 | 30min | 7820 | 61.8% Retracement |
Bullish Invalidation | 30min | 7780 | 76.4% Retracement / Weekly ORL (7794) |
Break Target 1 | 30min | 7745 | 88.6% Retracement |
Break Target 2 | Daily / 30min | 7707/13 | Sept Low / October ORL |
Break Target 3 | Daily / 30min | 7682 | 2013 Low |
Break Target 4 | Daily | 7633 | 2009 High |
Average True Range | Daily (20) | 115 | Profit Targets 26-29pips |
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
- EURAUD Scalps Target 1.46- Breakout Levels Well Defined
- GBPAUD Outside Reversal Favors Longs Scalps- 1.8440 Resistance
- Scalping the AUDUSD Opening Range- Longs Favored Above 8660
- EURUSD October Opening Range Setup- 1.27 Key Resistance
- EURCAD Shorts at Risk Ahead of ECB- Key Support 1.4053
- Scalping the AUDCHF Reversal- 8360 Resistance in Focus
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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