Talking Points
- NZDCAD outside reversal off key resistance shifts scalp bias lower
- Bearish invalidation at today’s high
- Event risk on tap this week
NZD/CAD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- NZDCAD posts outside daily reversal candle off key resistance 9035/50- bearish invalidation
- Support objectives 8863, 8817/25 & 8600/13- Key support
- Resistance breach targets objectives at 9134/47 & 9175
- Daily RSI resistance trigger break- constructive
- Momentum reversal ahead of 60 / break sub-50 would be bearish
- RSI support trigger pending
- Event Risk Ahead: Canadian Retail Sales & BoC Rate Decision & New Zealand CPI tomorrow and New Zealand Trade Balance on Thursday (ET)
NZD/CAD 30min Chart
Notes: The NZD/CAD is working on an outside day reversal candle off key resistance and near-term our focus is lower in the pair while below today’s high at 9050. Note that the pair is trading within the confines of an Andrew’s pitchfork off last week’s high and a break below the bisector line likely to fuel accelerated losses in the pair.
Bottom line: looking to sell rallies while below the weekly high with a break below Friday’s low adding further conviction on short-side exposure. A breach above 9050 invalidates our near-term bias with such a scenario eyeing subsequent topside objectives into the 200-day moving average around 9150. Caution is warranted heading into tomorrow’s event risk with the Bank of Canada interest rate decision likely to fuel added volaltility in CAD crosses. Follow the progress of trade setups like these and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets | Timeframe | Level | Technical Relevance |
Resistance Target 1 | 30min | 9006 | Last Week’s High / Soft Resistance |
Bearish Invalidation | Daily / 30min | 9035/50 | Wkly ORH / 1.618% Ext / 50% Retrace / R1 Monthly |
Break Target 1 | 30min | 9096 | Soft Resistance / Pivot |
Break Target 2 | Daily / 30min | 9134/47 | 50% & 61.8% Retracement(s) |
Break Target 3 | Daily / 30min | 9175 | 61.8% Extension / ~May Low |
Break Target 4 | 30min | 9200 | Soft Resistance / Pivot |
Break Target 5 | Daily / 30min | 9250/57 | 2.618% & 61.8% Retracement(s) |
Support Target 1 | Daily / 30min | 8943/46 | 23.6% & 38.2% Retracement(s) |
Bullish Invalidation | 30min | 8883 | 38.2% Retracement |
Break Target 1 | 30min | 8863 | Soft Support / December High |
Break Target 2 | Daily / 30min | 8817/33 | 50% & 23.6% Retrace(s) / Central Pivot / Oct ORH |
Break Target 3 | 30min | 8780 | 61.8% Retracement |
Break Target 4 | 30min | 8707 | 78.6% Retracement |
Break Target 5 | 30min | 8663 | 88.6% Retracement |
Break Target 6 | Daily / 30min | 8630 | Monthly Low1.732% Extension |
Break Target7 | Daily / 30min | 8600/13 | 2014 Low / 61.8% Retracement |
Average True Range | Daily (20) | 101 | Profit Targets 23-26pips |
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
- EURCAD Hits Target- Long Scalps Eye 1.4457 Resistance
- EURJPY Key Outside Reversal Shifts Near-term Focus Higher
- NZDUSD Scalps Target Key Resistance at 0.8000
- EURAUD Scalps Target 1.46- Breakout Levels Well Defined
- GBPAUD Outside Reversal Favors Longs Scalps- 1.8440 Resistance
- Scalping the AUDUSD Opening Range- Longs Favored Above 8660
- EURUSD October Opening Range Setup- 1.27 Key Resistance
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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