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Peabody Energy Corporation : Strong downward movement

06/19/2013 | 10:17am
Opinion : Bearish under USD 16.25
Target price : USD 14.9 Potential: 11.41%
Stop loss: USD 17.4
NYSE
Coal

The trend is clearly bearish on Peabody Energy Corporation and it could soon cross its USD 16.25 support, corresponding to the lowest since 2008.

From a fundamental viewpoint, the group is in a bad financial situation. The latter is worrying with an important debt level. Leverage is at 4.53x for the current year. Moreover with a PER of 97.1x, the group appears overvalued compared to its business activity. Otherwise, analysts have recently downgraded their forecasts for earnings per share and revenue.

Technically, the share is in a downward trend. The moving averages are decreasing and are still above prices, thereby stopping any rebounds. The security is going to cross the USD 16.25 long term support, toward USD 14.9 (50% of the pivot point objective).

Therefore, we could sell the stock below the USD 16.25 support and aim USD 14.9. A stop loss will be placed above effective entry point, threshold that would invalidate the bearish strategy.

Peabody Energy Corporation : Peabody Energy Corporation : Strong downward movement
Sandra Pinturault
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Financial Ratios

Size 2014e 2015e
Capitalization 2 783 M$ -
Entreprise Value (EV) 8 501 M$ 8 650 M$
Valuation 2014e 2015e
PER (Price / EPS)
Capitalization / Revenue 0,41x 0,40x
EV / Revenue 1,26x 1,26x
EV / EBITDA 10,9x 9,10x
Yield (DPS / Price) 3,40% 3,41%
Profitability 2014e 2015e
Operating Margin (EBIT / Sales) 1,36% 3,33%
operating Leverage (Delta EBIT / Delta Sales) -15,5x #
Net Margin (Net Profit / Revenue) -5,19% -1,54%
ROA (Net Profit / Asset) -2,50% -1,25%
ROE (Net Profit / Equities) -9,62% -5,73%
Rate of Dividend -25,2% -73,6%
Balance Sheet Analysis 2014e 2015e
CAPEX / Sales   4,64% 4,99%
Cash Flow / Sales (Taux d'autofinancement) 4,71% 8,50%
Capital Intensity (Assets / Sales) 2,08x 1,23x
Financial Leverage (Net Debt / EBITDA) 7,31x 6,17x
Income Statement Evolution
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