S&P 500 
Talking Points:
- Yen gains as BOJ, Deutsche Bank drive broad-based risk aversion
- Brexit-linked news flow pulls Pound into wider risk on/off dynamics
- Comments from ECB’s Draghi, Fed officials compound negativity
The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade as stocks slumped in Asian trade, offering support for the anti-risk currency. The deterioration in investors’ mood began to gain momentum after a speech by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The central bank head said pushing the interest rate on excess reserves deeper into negative territory will be the main tool to increase easing under the BOJ’s new policy regime. The markets have been skeptical of the approach since it was introduced earlier in the year.
News out of Germany compounded risk-off dynamics. Chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out state assistance for Deutsche Bank and refused to lobby on the lender’s behalf with US regulators ahead of elections in 2017, according to a report from Focus magazine. The US Justice Department may seek as much as $14 billion in sanctions linked the involvement of Deutsche’s MBS arm in the US mortgage crisis that triggered the Great Recession in 2008.
Interestingly, the British Pound suffered outsized losses alongside the typically sentiment-geared Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars as European shares followed Asian bourses downward. A number of Brexit-related headlines emerged over the weekend which may have contributed to a broadly toxic environment and pulled Sterling into risk on/off dynamics. Perhaps most notably, a survey from KPMG said three-quarters of large companies now plan to relocate some or all UK-based operations.
Looking ahead, a steep slump in S&P 500 futures ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street hints the dour mood aims to carry forward. Negativity may be compounded if the day’s Fed-speak mimics the hawkish posture of Chair Yellen, who all but promised tightening in December. References to Brexit’s negative knock-on effects on Eurozone growth in a speech from ECB President Draghi may also damage confidence.
What do retail traders buy/sell decisions hint about on-coming market trends? Find out here!
Asia Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
21:45 | NZD | Trade Balance (AUG) | -1265m | -735m | -433m |
21:45 | NZD | Exports (AUG) | 3.39b | 3.60b | 3.96b |
21:45 | NZD | Imports (AUG) | 4.65b | 4.30b | 4.40b |
21:45 | NZD | Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD (AUG) | -3131m | -2675m | -3034m |
23:50 | JPY | BOJ Flow of Funds | - | - | - |
05:00 | JPY | Leading Index CI (JUL F) | 100.0 | - | 100.0 |
05:00 | JPY | Coincident Index (JUL F) | 112.1 | - | 112.8 |
05:30 | JPY | BOJ Kuroda Speaks in Osaka | - | - | - |
European Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP/ACT | PREV | IMPACT |
08:00 | EUR | German IFO - Business Climate (SEP) | 109.5 (A) | 106.3 | Medium |
08:00 | EUR | German IFO - Current Assessment (SEP) | 114.7 (A) | 112.9 | Medium |
08:00 | EUR | German IFO - Expectations (SEP) | 104.5 (A) | 100.1 | Medium |
08:00 | CHF | Total Sight Deposits | 517.2b (A) | 516.7b | Low |
08:00 | CHF | Domestic Sight Deposits | 516.7b (A) | 438.7b | Low |
08:00 | EUR | Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL) | -0.3% (A) | 0.3% | Low |
08:00 | EUR | Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL) | -0.2% (A) | 0.8% | Low |
08:30 | GBP | BBA Loans for House Purchase (AUG) | 36997 (A) | 37672 | Low |
09:30 | CHF | SNB's Jordan Speaks in Geneva | - | - | Low |
12:30 | EUR | ECB Adviser Angeloni Speaks in London | - | - | Low |
13:15 | EUR | ECB's Coeure Speaks in Rome | - | - | Low |
13:45 | EUR | ECB Publishes Weekly QE Details | - | - | Low |
13:50 | GBP | BOE Bond-Buying Operation Results | - | - | Low |
14:00 | EUR | ECB’s Draghi Speaks at EU Parliament | - | - | Medium |
Critical Levels
CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
EUR/USD | 1.1126 | 1.1173 | 1.12 | 1.122 | 1.1247 | 1.1267 | 1.1314 |
GBP/USD | 1.2644 | 1.2817 | 1.2891 | 1.299 | 1.3064 | 1.3163 | 1.3336 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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