Due to an US employment reports published better than expected earlier this month, many macroeconomic publications have however disappointed both sides of the Atlantic, but has not prevented so far the indexes to beat a series of records.
The results of companies globally reassured since nearly 70% of the S & P 500 companies that have reported their quarterly earnings have exceeded expectations in terms of benefits.
However, central banks play a determinant role with their ultra-advantageous monetary policy. Without risk aversion, the equity markets seems unwavering even if we can observe a decorrelation from the real economy.
From a graphical point of view, there is a clear bullish dynamic in daily data over 1600 points, threshold coinciding with the 20-day moving average. Despite an increase of over 16% since January and no sign of weakness, consolidation could quickly put up as much as some members of the Fed begin to discuss the possibility to quickly reduce or terminate QE3 if economic conditions continue to improve.
In the short run, the breakdown of 1625 points would represent a first bearish indication, confirmed by a second breakdown of 1600 points. In this case, the targets would be set towards 1540 points and 1490 points by extension.