USD/CAD Bearish Pattern to Gather Pace on Upbeat Canada Retail Sales

- Canada Retail Sales to Rebound in April.

- Household Consumption Expected to Increase for Third Time in 2016.

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Trading the News: Canada Retail Sales

A 0.8% rebound in Canada Retail Sales may heighten the appeal of the loonie and spark a near-term decline in USD/CAD as it boosts the outlook for growth and inflation.

What’s Expected:

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Why Is This Event Important:

The Bank of Canada (BoC) may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach throughout the remainder of the year as Governor Stephen Poloz turns upbeat towards the economy, and the central bank may gradually move away from its easing cycle after implementing the ‘insurance’ rate-cuts in 2015.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

The pickup in job growth may encourage Canadian households to increase their rate of consumption, and a positive development may spark a bullish reaction in the loonie as market participants scale back bets for a BoC rate-cut.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

However, sticky inflation accompanied by fears of a slower recovery may drag on private spending, and dismal sales report may produce near-term headwinds for the Canadian dollar as it fuels bets for additional monetary support.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish CAD Trade: Retail Sales Rebounds 0.8% or Greater

• Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on USD/CAD.
• If market reaction favors a bullish loonie trade, sell USD/CAD with two separate position.
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish CAD Trade: Canada Household Consumption Disappoints

• Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long USD/CAD trade.
• Implement same setup as the bullish Canadian dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

USD/CAD Daily

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

• Long-term outlook for USD/CAD remains tilted to the upside amid the deviating paths for monetary policy, but the pair may continue to give back the rebound from the May low (1.2460) as the pair preserves the downward trending channel carried over from the previous month.
• Key Resistance: 1.3560 (100% expansion) to 1.3630 (38.2% retracement)
• Key Support: 1.2510 (78.6% retracement) to 1.2520 (38.2% expansion)

Check out the short-term technical levels that matter for USD/CAD heading into the report!

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Impact that Canada Retail Sales report has had on USD/CAD during the last release

March 2016 Canada Retail Sales

Canada Retail Sales slumped 1.0% in March after expanding a revised 0.6% during the previous month. A deeper look at the report showed demand for furniture & home furnishings declined 3.7% to lead the decline, with food & beverage sales contracting 0.4%, while discretionary spending on clothing and accessories increased 0.8% during the same period. The Canadian dollar struggled to hold its ground following the weak consumption report, with USD/CAD climbing above the 1.3100 handle to end the day at 1.3107.

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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