Log in
E-mail
Password
Remember
Forgot password ?
Become a member for free
Sign up
Sign up
Settings
Settings
Dynamic quotes 

4-Traders Homepage  >  Equities  >  Nasdaq  >  Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated    VRTX

Delayed Quote. Delayed  - 09/30 10:00:00 pm
87.21 USD   +2.60%
09/29 VERTEX PHARMACE : VRTX): Get In While Markets Look The Other Way
09/28 VERTEX PHARMACE : U.S. Food and Drug Administration Approves ORKAMBI..
09/22 NASDAQ 100 MOVE : Bmrn, bbby
SummaryQuotesChartsNewsAnalysisCalendarCompanyFinancialsConsensusRevisions 
News SummaryMost relevantAll newsSector news 
The feature you requested does not exist. However, we suggest the following feature:

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX): Get In While Markets Look The Other Way

share with twitter share with LinkedIn share with facebook
share via e-mail
0
09/29/2016 | 04:58pm CEST

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX) just picked up FDA approval for its supplemental new drug application (sNDA) for ORKAMBI. The company hasn’t really moved much from a market valuation perspective in response to the news, suggesting investors haven’t really grasped the implications of such an approval on Vertex’s potential in the space. Sentiment shifted to the downside recently, based on a report out of Vertex pointing towards a slow down in initially-hoped-for sales of the product this quarter, and it looks as though this sentiment shift has had some degree of rollover into the response to the latest announcement. Don’t expect this rollover to carry on indefinitely, however. We expect Vertex to pick up as markets digest the latest approval, and in turn, that sentiment will shift again.

So, with this in mind, and ahead of any alternative response, here is a look at the drug in question, and a discussion of what the expansion means from a quantitative perspective going forward.

As mentioned, the drug is called ORKAMBI, and the FDA initially approved it back in July last year. The initial approval was for patients aged 12 and over who suffered from cystic fibrosis (CF) and who have what’s called the F508del mutation. This latter mentioned mutation, and specifically the phenomenon of having two copies of this mutation, is the leading cause of CF in all demographics.

Last year, Vertex generated $350 million in revenues from the drug, and heading into this year, the company put forward expectations of ORKAMBI reaching blockbuster status, with a target of between $1 billion and $1.1 billion for full year 2016.

This has now been revised down to between $950 million and $90 million for the full year this year; a revision that the company believes is rooted in something called patient compliance – that is, patients maintaining a two pill a day dosing regimen across a three-month period (or more accurately, not doing so).

So what does the latest approval mean for these numbers? Well, for full year 2016 guidance, it probably does not mean that much. Vertex will have published these numbers based on expectations of the approval (or alternatively, had two sets of numbers ready and released the one that fell in line with the FDA’s decision) and so we’re probably looking at the pre-stated figures this year, despite a boost during the fourth quarter based on the expanded patient population.

Early next year, however, is where we should start to really see the difference.

Adoption has not been as fast as the company would have liked, and chances are we will see a similar slow-off-the-mark situation with the pediatric administration. As such, the additional population isn’t really going to take effect before the end of first quarter, and we are not going to get anything related to this specifically until first-quarter results come out at some point heading towards the middle of next year. However, when this period does come around, we expect to see a large shift in prescriptions. The label expansion adds around 2,500 individuals (potential patients) to the company’s target market, which works out at around 10% additional prescriptions annually given current administration rates.  Assuming price points don’t change that much between the young pediatric and elderly pediatric/adult populations, which we don’t expect they will, this should add another circa $100 million onto potential full-year revenues at current rates.

There is, of course, another factor to be considered. Vertex has a third in its pipeline that could replace ORKAMBI and a large portion of its second drug, Kalydeco, if the FDA approves it. The drug in question is called VX-661, and trials to date seem to suggest it addresses one of the leading causes of the above-mentioned patient nonconformity, chest tightness.

This is all speculation at the moment, before the drug is submitted to the agency (second half next year, expected), we won’t have any concrete idea of its chances come PDUFA.

For now, we think the added impact of the 6-11-year-old administration target population is more than enough to warrant a high single digit percentage point gain in Vertex’s market capitalization, and while markets digest the information that just got released, we think there’s an opportunity for a discount entry ahead of this gain.

The post Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX): Get In While Markets Look The Other Way appeared first on Market Exclusive.

© Market Exclusive 2016, source Market Exclusive

share with twitter share with LinkedIn share with facebook
share via e-mail
0
Latest news on VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INC
09/29 VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED : VRTX): Get In While Markets Look The Othe..
09/28 VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED : U.S. Food and Drug Administration Approves..
09/22 NASDAQ 100 MOVERS : Bmrn, bbby
09/20 New Crystallization Development Methods Revealed in On-Demand Webinars from M..
09/19 New Crystallization Development Methods Revealed in On-Demand Webinars from M..
09/16 NASDAQ 100 MOVERS : Expe, wdc
09/15 VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED : Investigators at Vertex Pharmaceuticals In..
09/15 VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED : Researchers from Vertex Pharmaceuticals In..
09/15 VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED : to Present at Upcoming Investor Conference..
09/15 VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED : Patent Issued for Solid Forms of 3-(6-(1-(..
More news
Sector news : Bio Therapeutic Drugs
09/29DJARROWHEAD PHARMACEUTICALS : Amgen, Arrowhead Pharma Agree to Cardiovascular Coll..
09/27DJAMGEN : Myeloma Treatment Study Fails to Meet Primary Endpoint
09/26DJSANOFI : FDA Accepts Sanofi's, Regeneron's Dermatitis Treatment for Priority Rev..
09/23DJAMGEN : FDA Approves Amgen's Biosimilar Version of Humira -- 2nd Update
09/23DJAMGEN : FDA Approves Amgen's Biosimilar Version of Humira -- Update
More sector news : Bio Therapeutic Drugs
News from SeekingAlpha
09/28 FDA approves expanded use of Vertex's CF drug Orkambi; 2016 revenue guidance ..
09/22 Biotech ETF IBB Could Get A Boost From A Potential Gilead Merger Or Acquisiti..
09/19 Sarepta to charge $300K for yearly course of Exondys 51
09/16 Healthcare ratings roundup - new coverage
09/15 Will The FDA Approve A Label Expansion For Vertex's Blockbuster Cystic Fibros..
Advertisement
Financials ($)
Sales 2016 1 737 M
EBIT 2016 262 M
Net income 2016 -95,2 M
Finance 2016 330 M
Yield 2016 -
P/E ratio 2016 -
P/E ratio 2017 50,24
EV / Sales 2016 11,9x
EV / Sales 2017 8,26x
Capitalization 21 061 M
More Financials
Chart VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INC
Duration : Period :
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Technical Analysis Chart | VRTX | US92532F1003 | 4-Traders
Full-screen chart
Technical analysis trends VERTEX PHARMACEUT...
Short TermMid-TermLong Term
TrendsBearishNeutralBearish
Technical analysis
Income Statement Evolution
More Financials
Consensus 
Mean consensus OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts 23
Average target price 109 $
Spread / Average Target 28%
Consensus details
EPS Revisions
More Estimates Revisions
Managers
NameTitle
Jeffrey M. Leiden Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer
Simon Bedson SVP & GM-International Commercial Operations
Ian F. Smith Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President
Jeffrey A. Chodakewitz Chief Medical Officer & Executive Vice President
David Matthew Altshuler Chief Scientific Officer & EVP-Global Research
More about the company
Sector and Competitors
1st jan.Capitalization (M$)
VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS..-32.45%21 061
AMGEN, INC.1.92%123 816
GILEAD SCIENCES, INC.-23.06%102 749
CELGENE CORPORATION-14.19%79 659
REGENERON PHARMACEUTIC..-25.15%42 787
ACTELION LTD21.70%18 780
More Results