Energy Group, a NYC-based energy markets consulting firm, reports
that the U.S. is the world's largest producer of oil in 2013, according
to data presented at PIRA's recent Retainer
Client Seminar held in New York City on October 10th and 11th.
U.S. total supply for 2013 is expected to average 12.1 MMB/D. In 2012
the U.S. overtook Russia to become the second largest supplier of oil
and was just behind Saudi Arabia. Both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia
increased their supply in 2013, though production in the U.S. grew at a
faster pace. U.S. total supply in 2013 is larger than that of Saudi
Arabia by 0.3 MMB/D and ahead of Russia by 1.6 MMB/D. The fourth through
10th largest suppliers are: China, Canada, UAE, Iran, Iraq,
Kuwait, and Mexico.
Total oil supply counts all forms of liquids supply. The largest part is
crude oil, including condensates. In this category, the U.S. is expected
to produce 7.4 MMB/D, which is less than that produced in Saudi Arabia
and Russia by roughly 3 MMB/D each. But the U.S. has substantial other
forms of supply, including natural gas liquids (NGLs) at 2.5 MMB/D,
biofuels at 1.0 MMB/D, and "refinery gain" at almost 1.3 MMB/D.
(Refinery gain measures the ability of a refinery to optimize its output
through sophisticated high conversion capabilities.)
The U.S. has surged to be the world's lead oil supplier because of
growth in shale oil. Shale crude and condensate production at 2.5 MMB/D
in 2013 is now slightly over one-third of total U.S. crude production,
and shale NGL at 1.2 MMB/D is almost half of total NGLs. Shale crude is
seen growing by 0.8 MMB/D this year, while shale NGL grows 0.3 MMB/D
versus 2012. The U.S. shale liquids growth of 3.2 MMB/D over the last
four years has been nearly unparalleled in the history of world oil;
only Saudi Arabia in 1970-74 raised its production faster.
U.S. total supply growth in 2013 is seen at 1.0 MMB/D and about the same
as last year's growth. Its growth rate is greater than the sum of the
growth of the next nine fastest growing countries combined and has
covered most of the world's net demand growth over the past two years.
The U.S. position as the largest oil supplier in the world looks to be
secure for many years. Although growth rates of U.S. shale liquids are
expected to become smaller in the future, PIRA's forecast sees the U.S.
increasing the lead over the next two largest countries until after 2020
and retaining the lead to at least through 2030.
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