Member access

4-Traders Homepage  >  News

News

Latest NewsCompaniesMarketsEconomy & ForexCommoditiesHot NewsMost Read NewsRecomm.Business LeadersVideosCalendar 

Assisted Living Concepts, Inc. : SIFMA Releases 2012, 2013 Economic Forecast

06/19/2012 | 02:01pm US/Eastern
Recommend:
0

Release Date: June 19, 2012
Contact: Andrew DeSouza, 202.962.7390, adesouza@sifma.org

SIFMA Releases 2012, 2013 Economic Forecast 

Washington, D.C., June 19, 2012-SIFMA's Economic Advisory Roundtable today released its economic outlook for the second half of 2012 and predictions for 2013, forecasting that the economy will grow at a rate of 2.1 percent in full-year 2012 and 2.1 percent in 2013.

"Our Roundtable maintains their forecast for moderate economic growth for 2012 and 2013, but warns about a number of headwinds that could affect that forecast," said Kyle Brandon, managing director and director of research at SIFMA. "Concerns over the European debt crisis, the so-called "fiscal cliff" and regulatory uncertainty remain significant risks to the downside for the economy going forward."

The Economy

The median forecast called for gross domestic product (GDP) to rise 2.1 percent in 2012 on a year-over-year basis, and by 2.2 percent on a fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter basis. For 2013, the median forecast was 2.1 percent year-over-year; on a quarterly basis, the GDP growth rate was expected to fall in the first quarter of 2013 to an annualized 1.8 percent and rise to 2.3 percent in the second quarter.

Unemployment was expected to remain at elevated levels throughout 2012 and 2013, with levels on pace with those forecasted in the end-year 2011 report. Survey respondents expected the full-year average unemployment rate to drop slightly to 8.1 percent in 2012 (compared to 8.2 percent forecasted in the end-year 2011 report), declining to 7.8 percent in 2013.

Monetary Policy and Quantitative Easing

The Roundtable was unanimous in its opinion that the FOMC would not change its current 0.0 to 0.25 percent target federal funds rate range through 2013. Of those respondents that put a date to a rate hike, approximately half expected a rate hike in mid- to late-2014.

On the possibility of another round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, the majority of respondents (65 percent) expected the Fed to conduct further quantitative easing (QE3). When asked what conditions would trigger further easing, respondents were generally in agreement that subpar GDP and weak job growth, rising deflationary risks, and potential contagion from Europe were likely primary triggers for a third round of quantitative easing.

The timing for QE3 was expected to be near-term, with nearly all respondents who anticipated further quantitative easing expecting an announcement at the June 20, 2012 FOMC meeting and action to be taken from June to September 2012. While a majority of respondents that anticipated QE3 expect the Fed to act through purchases of long-term securities such as Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), a small minority (17 percent) expect the extension of 'Operation Twist' instead.

Falling Off a "Fiscal Cliff"?

All survey respondents opined that some attempt would be made by Congress to mitigate the "fiscal cliff", with the majority expecting a temporary extension of the Bush era tax cuts. A few respondents expected either reductions in, or the outright elimination of, sequestering as well.

Survey respondents also commented that most, if not all four aspects of the "fiscal cliff" (expiring tax cuts, the debt ceiling, appropriations and sequestration) will be postponed. Respondents generally expected some form of a budget plan, similar to the framework put forth by Bowles-Simpson, or a gradual phase in of fiscal cuts.

Respondents predicted that congressional action is highly dependent on the November elections, and that the only action they might take is a short term postponement. Nearly all respondents opined that uncertainty over fiscal policy will continue to negatively impact GDP growth in 2013, split fairly evenly between those expecting a negative impact of up to 100 basis points and those expecting a negative impact of over 100 bps.

The full report can be found at the following link: http://www.sifma.org/econoutlook20121h/.

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) brings together the shared interests of hundreds of securities firms, banks and asset managers. SIFMA's mission is to support a strong financial industry, investor opportunity, capital formation, job creation and economic growth, while building trust and confidence in the financial markets. SIFMA, with offices in New York and Washington, D.C., is the U.S. regional member of the Global Financial Markets Association (GFMA). For more information, visit http://www.sifma.org.

distributed by
Recommend :
0
React to this article
Latest news
Date Title
10m ago MINISTRY OF ECONOMY AND ENERGY OF REPUBLIC OF : Dragomir Stoynev: South Stream is a strategic project for Bulgaria; the government intends to start construction this year
16m ago BCCI BAHRAIN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE & INDUSTRY : New customs procedures for loading goods: Open meeting with BCCI and Customs
27m ago New York Pediatrician says Frequent School Moves can Affect Child's Mental Health
31m ago Manchester United’s Patrice Evra NOMINATES Liverpool star Luis Suarez as PFA Player of the Year
35m ago AGC NETWORKS : Avaya Networking Solutions Close the Gap between Data Center and End Devices
35m ago COCHLEAR : to unveil its Arabic Matrix Test at Annual Middle East Otolaryngology Conference & Exhibition
35m ago LEXMARK : Print Management brings added flexibility and savings through the channel for Middle East customers
41m ago First bodies pulled from submerged Korean ferry
41m ago OOREDOO : Introduce Ahli Bank as New Nojoom Partner
45m ago SOUTH KOREA - Divers begin pulling bodies from sunken South Korean ferry
Latest news
Advertisement
Hot News 
HAVELOCK EUROPA : Preliminary Results to 31 December 2013
LDK SOLAR : Provides Additional Information on its Request for Review of NYSE Regulation's Decision to Suspend Trading and Commence Delisting Procedures
HAYNES PUBLISHING : Third Quarter Hit By Us Inventory Returns, Weak UK
SPACEANDPEOPLE : Shares Slide As It Lowers 2014 Forecast
BLUR : Shares In Blur Group Plummet Due To Delayed Revenue Recognition
Most Read News
1d ago TEXTURA : Uncommon Uses Greengrade to Help Achieve LEED Platinum for Project VIDA
1d ago GRAHAM : Pentagon Mulls Deployment As Poland Asks For 10,000 Troops
1d ago BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE : Marion County Deputies Arrest Speed Racing Driver
1d ago WPCS : Announces Launch Date for BTX Trader Platform
1d ago HMN FINANCIAL : Announces first quarter results, april 22, 2014
Most recommended articles
3d ago U.S. shares seen opening lower as tech giants stumble
3d ago Financials bolster FTSE after reassuring U.S. earnings
3d ago BLACKSTONE : earnings rise 30 percent, boosted by private equity gains
2h ago Daimler to sell DENZA electric car in China with local subsidy
2h ago BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE : BMW in final stages of decision on potential new factory
Dynamic quotes  
ON
| OFF