Log in
Login
Password
Remember
Lost password
Become a member for free
Sign up
Sign up
Settings
Settings
Dynamic quotes 

4-Traders Homepage  >  News

News

Latest NewsCompaniesMarketsEconomy & ForexCommoditiesHot NewsMost Read NewsRecomm.Business LeadersVideosCalendar 

Assisted Living Concepts, Inc. : SIFMA Releases 2012, 2013 Economic Forecast

06/19/2012 | 02:01pm US/Eastern

Release Date: June 19, 2012
Contact: Andrew DeSouza, 202.962.7390, adesouza@sifma.org

SIFMA Releases 2012, 2013 Economic Forecast 

Washington, D.C., June 19, 2012-SIFMA's Economic Advisory Roundtable today released its economic outlook for the second half of 2012 and predictions for 2013, forecasting that the economy will grow at a rate of 2.1 percent in full-year 2012 and 2.1 percent in 2013.

"Our Roundtable maintains their forecast for moderate economic growth for 2012 and 2013, but warns about a number of headwinds that could affect that forecast," said Kyle Brandon, managing director and director of research at SIFMA. "Concerns over the European debt crisis, the so-called "fiscal cliff" and regulatory uncertainty remain significant risks to the downside for the economy going forward."

The Economy

The median forecast called for gross domestic product (GDP) to rise 2.1 percent in 2012 on a year-over-year basis, and by 2.2 percent on a fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter basis. For 2013, the median forecast was 2.1 percent year-over-year; on a quarterly basis, the GDP growth rate was expected to fall in the first quarter of 2013 to an annualized 1.8 percent and rise to 2.3 percent in the second quarter.

Unemployment was expected to remain at elevated levels throughout 2012 and 2013, with levels on pace with those forecasted in the end-year 2011 report. Survey respondents expected the full-year average unemployment rate to drop slightly to 8.1 percent in 2012 (compared to 8.2 percent forecasted in the end-year 2011 report), declining to 7.8 percent in 2013.

Monetary Policy and Quantitative Easing

The Roundtable was unanimous in its opinion that the FOMC would not change its current 0.0 to 0.25 percent target federal funds rate range through 2013. Of those respondents that put a date to a rate hike, approximately half expected a rate hike in mid- to late-2014.

On the possibility of another round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, the majority of respondents (65 percent) expected the Fed to conduct further quantitative easing (QE3). When asked what conditions would trigger further easing, respondents were generally in agreement that subpar GDP and weak job growth, rising deflationary risks, and potential contagion from Europe were likely primary triggers for a third round of quantitative easing.

The timing for QE3 was expected to be near-term, with nearly all respondents who anticipated further quantitative easing expecting an announcement at the June 20, 2012 FOMC meeting and action to be taken from June to September 2012. While a majority of respondents that anticipated QE3 expect the Fed to act through purchases of long-term securities such as Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), a small minority (17 percent) expect the extension of 'Operation Twist' instead.

Falling Off a "Fiscal Cliff"?

All survey respondents opined that some attempt would be made by Congress to mitigate the "fiscal cliff", with the majority expecting a temporary extension of the Bush era tax cuts. A few respondents expected either reductions in, or the outright elimination of, sequestering as well.

Survey respondents also commented that most, if not all four aspects of the "fiscal cliff" (expiring tax cuts, the debt ceiling, appropriations and sequestration) will be postponed. Respondents generally expected some form of a budget plan, similar to the framework put forth by Bowles-Simpson, or a gradual phase in of fiscal cuts.

Respondents predicted that congressional action is highly dependent on the November elections, and that the only action they might take is a short term postponement. Nearly all respondents opined that uncertainty over fiscal policy will continue to negatively impact GDP growth in 2013, split fairly evenly between those expecting a negative impact of up to 100 basis points and those expecting a negative impact of over 100 bps.

The full report can be found at the following link: http://www.sifma.org/econoutlook20121h/.

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) brings together the shared interests of hundreds of securities firms, banks and asset managers. SIFMA's mission is to support a strong financial industry, investor opportunity, capital formation, job creation and economic growth, while building trust and confidence in the financial markets. SIFMA, with offices in New York and Washington, D.C., is the U.S. regional member of the Global Financial Markets Association (GFMA). For more information, visit http://www.sifma.org.

distributed by
React to this article
Latest news
Date Title
03:20a PENDRAGON : Shares Up As It Looks Set To Beat Full Year Expectations
03:20a ULTRA ELECTRONICS : *jpmorgan cuts ultra electronics price target to 1920 pence - 'neutral'
03:15a MOLECULAR MEDICINE : MolMed Board of Directors approves the first half-year 2015 financial report
03:15a THERAMETRICS : SIX: TMX) announces today that it has completed the acquisition of 38,500,000 of its own shares from its shareholders Pierrel S.p.A. and Fin Posillipo S.p.A.
03:15a ABLYNX : 04/08/2015 ablynx initiates phase ii sle study with its anti-il-6r nanobody, partnered with abbvie
03:15a PKP CARGO : Current report no. 41/2015 from 30 July 2015 - Information on the adoption of the Management Board’s resolution on salaries increase, signature of the records of divergences in the course of collective dispute
03:15a JOSAB : Diversification of ownership and conversion of warrants by the CEOs sale of shares in Josab International AB (JOSA)
03:15a JOSAB : Disclosure notice Josab International AB (JOSA)
03:15a OPEC ORGANIZATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COU : daily basket price stood at $48.40 a barrel Monday, 3 August 2015
03:15aDJMeggitt Gets $42.1 Million Contract to Supply Lockheed Martin Ammo Systems
Latest news
Advertisement
Hot News 
ECKERT & ZIEGLER : DGAP-News: Record quarter despite restructuring expenses
ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND : UK To Dispose Of About 5.2% Of RBS
CREDIT AGRICOLE : SA : Results second quarter and first half of 2015
FUCHS PETROLUB SE : DGAP-News: FUCHS records sales revenues of EUR 1 billion for the first time in the first six months of the year
MOLECULAR MEDICINE : MolMed Board of Directors approves the first half-year 2015 financial report
Most Read News
08/03 CENTER FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASE RESEARCH : Launches “Become the Cure” Bumbershoot Ticket Raffle
08/03 WIDE KATE LENS UP-DIP INTERCEPT : 34.0m @ 20.8% ZnEq
08/03 WIDE KATE LENS UP-DIP INTERCEPT : 34.0m @ 20.8% ZnEq
08/03 CHINA METALLURGICAL : MCC Group and China MCC Hold 2015 Mid-Year Working Conference
08/03 NATIONAL FARMERS' FEDERATION OF AUSTRALIA : Capturing value from science in agriculture
Most recommended articles
03:15aDJMeggitt Gets $42.1 Million Contract to Supply Lockheed Martin Ammo Systems
03:14a China stocks rise as Beijing steps up crackdown on short-selling
03:05aDJMISC BHD : 2Q Net Profit MYR745.2 Million, up From MYR288.1 Million a Year Ago
03:04a DIRECT LINE INSURANCE : first-half profit rises on benign weather, reserve releases
03:04a ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND : UK's sale of RBS shares was 2.4 times covered