Log in
E-mail
Password
Remember
Forgot password ?
Become a member for free
Sign up
Sign up
Settings
Settings
Dynamic quotes 
OFFON

4-Traders Homepage  >  News

News

Latest NewsCompaniesMarketsEconomy & ForexCommoditiesInterest RatesHot NewsMost Read NewsRecomm.Business LeadersCalendar 

Assisted Living Concepts, Inc. : SIFMA Releases 2012, 2013 Economic Forecast

share with twitter share with LinkedIn share with facebook
share via e-mail
0
06/19/2012 | 08:01pm CET

Release Date: June 19, 2012
Contact: Andrew DeSouza, 202.962.7390, adesouza@sifma.org

SIFMA Releases 2012, 2013 Economic Forecast 

Washington, D.C., June 19, 2012-SIFMA's Economic Advisory Roundtable today released its economic outlook for the second half of 2012 and predictions for 2013, forecasting that the economy will grow at a rate of 2.1 percent in full-year 2012 and 2.1 percent in 2013.

"Our Roundtable maintains their forecast for moderate economic growth for 2012 and 2013, but warns about a number of headwinds that could affect that forecast," said Kyle Brandon, managing director and director of research at SIFMA. "Concerns over the European debt crisis, the so-called "fiscal cliff" and regulatory uncertainty remain significant risks to the downside for the economy going forward."

The Economy

The median forecast called for gross domestic product (GDP) to rise 2.1 percent in 2012 on a year-over-year basis, and by 2.2 percent on a fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter basis. For 2013, the median forecast was 2.1 percent year-over-year; on a quarterly basis, the GDP growth rate was expected to fall in the first quarter of 2013 to an annualized 1.8 percent and rise to 2.3 percent in the second quarter.

Unemployment was expected to remain at elevated levels throughout 2012 and 2013, with levels on pace with those forecasted in the end-year 2011 report. Survey respondents expected the full-year average unemployment rate to drop slightly to 8.1 percent in 2012 (compared to 8.2 percent forecasted in the end-year 2011 report), declining to 7.8 percent in 2013.

Monetary Policy and Quantitative Easing

The Roundtable was unanimous in its opinion that the FOMC would not change its current 0.0 to 0.25 percent target federal funds rate range through 2013. Of those respondents that put a date to a rate hike, approximately half expected a rate hike in mid- to late-2014.

On the possibility of another round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, the majority of respondents (65 percent) expected the Fed to conduct further quantitative easing (QE3). When asked what conditions would trigger further easing, respondents were generally in agreement that subpar GDP and weak job growth, rising deflationary risks, and potential contagion from Europe were likely primary triggers for a third round of quantitative easing.

The timing for QE3 was expected to be near-term, with nearly all respondents who anticipated further quantitative easing expecting an announcement at the June 20, 2012 FOMC meeting and action to be taken from June to September 2012. While a majority of respondents that anticipated QE3 expect the Fed to act through purchases of long-term securities such as Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), a small minority (17 percent) expect the extension of 'Operation Twist' instead.

Falling Off a "Fiscal Cliff"?

All survey respondents opined that some attempt would be made by Congress to mitigate the "fiscal cliff", with the majority expecting a temporary extension of the Bush era tax cuts. A few respondents expected either reductions in, or the outright elimination of, sequestering as well.

Survey respondents also commented that most, if not all four aspects of the "fiscal cliff" (expiring tax cuts, the debt ceiling, appropriations and sequestration) will be postponed. Respondents generally expected some form of a budget plan, similar to the framework put forth by Bowles-Simpson, or a gradual phase in of fiscal cuts.

Respondents predicted that congressional action is highly dependent on the November elections, and that the only action they might take is a short term postponement. Nearly all respondents opined that uncertainty over fiscal policy will continue to negatively impact GDP growth in 2013, split fairly evenly between those expecting a negative impact of up to 100 basis points and those expecting a negative impact of over 100 bps.

The full report can be found at the following link: http://www.sifma.org/econoutlook20121h/.

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) brings together the shared interests of hundreds of securities firms, banks and asset managers. SIFMA's mission is to support a strong financial industry, investor opportunity, capital formation, job creation and economic growth, while building trust and confidence in the financial markets. SIFMA, with offices in New York and Washington, D.C., is the U.S. regional member of the Global Financial Markets Association (GFMA). For more information, visit http://www.sifma.org.

distributed by
share with twitter share with LinkedIn share with facebook
share via e-mail
0
Latest news
Date Title
11:12a MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF ISLAMIC REPUBLI : Foreign Minister Meets with the Senate Majority Leader of the United States
11:12a UK OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION : 29th Licensing Round has the potential to open up new areas of UKCS
11:12a EGALET : Announces Issuance of New U.S. and International Patents for Guardian™ Technology
11:12a POYRY : Will blockchains revolutionise business models in the energy industry?
11:12a FRANCHISE BRANDS : Acquires Metro Rod Limited for £28 million
11:12a ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT : Form 8.3 - Amendment - Aberdeen Asset Management plc
11:12a VICINITY CENTRES RE : Retirement of Non-executive Director Richard Haddock AM
11:12a HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING : Adjustment of Henderson Land Structured Products, Futures and Options
11:12a CHINA PETROCHEMICAL DEVELOPMENT : To announce the acquisition of facility and engineering equipment on behalf of subsidiary Jiangsu Weiming Petrochemical Corporation.
11:12a VICINITY CENTRES RE : Lapse of Vicinity Centres performance rights
Latest news
Advertisement
Hot News 
-3.97%BASIC FIT : core earnings rise on record number of new gym openings
6.72%NEXT : Retailer Next 'extremely cautious' about year ahead
-4.28%IG : revenue falls 3.8 percent on weakness in UK, Ireland
-4.89%TED BAKER : Retailer Ted Baker's profit rises on strong UK, Europe sales
1.62%GVC : to pay second special dividend for 2016 on favourable trading, refinancing
Most Read News
04:02a Verizon, AT&T suspend ads from Google over offensive videos
04:10a NEXT : Retailer Next 'extremely cautious' about year ahead
03/22DJAT&T Pulling Ads From Google Over 'Hate' Videos -- 3rd Update
03/22DJSEARS : Stock Stumbles After Going-Concern Warning -- 3rd Update
05:10a UBS : set to charge wealthy for keeping euro savings
Most recommended articles
03/21 UK to investigate any UK banking involvement in 'Laundromat' case
06:09a ZTE : China's ZTE posts fourth-quarter net loss after U.S. sanction case fine
05:49a SSE increases stake in UK Dogger Bank offshore wind development
05:45aDJADOBE INCORPORATED : How a Patent Case May Shake Up the Domination of Eastern Texas
05:41aDJTENCENT : Hires Baidu Big-Data Director Zhang Tong, Betting on Artificial Intelligence