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BoJ appointment delay fans talk of friction

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02/19/2013 | 12:20pm CEST

Japan's government has delayed nominating a Bank of Japan governor, prompting talk of friction at the top over who should be tasked with carrying out policies to kickstart Japan's economy. IG's Brenda Kelly believes Toshiro Muto is still the frontrunner, and thinks dollar/yen might break through 94.50.



'I think at the end of the month, we'll probably hear who the governor will be and it's likely it will be Muto. And I think there'll may be an actual agreement in the background that maybe, if he adopts this aggressive policy stance that Abe wants to see instilled in the Bank of Japan, then he will be a frontrunner for the job. So I still have a target on the Dollar-Yen of around the JPY94.50 level and a possibility of breaking on through it. But I do feel that we may see a bit of profit taking around that level but certainly the trend is still there and still intact.
(QUESTION: All right. 15-month highs for the Euro yesterday. Draghi has come out again and spoken, and are we going to see the Euro drive higher?)
I think they feel a little bit of comfort around the EUR1.36 level and I think that anytime we see a rise up through that, we get a little bit of a rhetoric from the ECB or those involved in the euro zone itself. But I do feel we're going to see a drive higher on the Euro. But you do have the week ahead, is very much full of market updates or minutes rather from the central banks around the world. And I think Wednesday could be the catalyst for a move higher if we get the impression that the Fed are not going to pull back on the quantitative easing in the near future. That could be the signal that we'll see a higher move possibly as far as the EUR1.40 level for the Euro-Dollar.
(QUESTION: Aside from the Euro, Sterling is very much the talk of the currency market, seven-month lows there. How low is Sterling going to go before we find a floor?)
Well, the fact that we've seen a major break of an uptrend from those January '09 lows is quite significant, and I think there is a further downside to come. I think the GBP1.52 level does seem like a very near-term target and of course, a breach of that could very ultimately send us down to GBP1.40 against the US Dollar. So, there is a lot of pressure on Sterling at the moment and it doesn't seem to be going away, particularly in light of what was said with the Bank of- the new Bank of England Governor Carney. It doesn't feel to me that we're going to see any release on quantitative easing in the near future. So, the pressure will remain on Sterling.'

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