Rarely in history has the cause of a major economic problem
been so clear yet have so few been willing to see it.
The major reason this recovery has been so anemic is not
Europe's debt crisis. It's not Japan's tsumami.
It's not Wall Street's continuing excesses.
It's not, as right-wing economists tell us, because
taxes are too high on corporations and the rich, and safety
nets are too generous to the needy. It's not even, as
some liberals contend, because the Obama administration
hasn't spent enough on a temporary Keynesian stimulus.
The answer is in front of our faces. It's because
American consumers, whose spending is 70 percent of
economic activity, don't have the dough to buy enough
to boost the economy -- and they can no longer borrow like
they could before the crash of 2008.
If you have any doubt, just take a look at the Survey of
Consumer Finances, released Monday by the Federal Reserve.
Median family income was $49,600 in 2007. By 2010 it was
$45,800 -- a drop of 7.7%.
All of the gains from economic growth have been going to
the richest 1 percent -- who, because they're so rich,
spend no more than half what they take in.
Can I say this any more simply? The earnings of the great
American middle class fueled the great American expansion
for three decades after World War II. Their relative lack
of earnings in more recent years set us up for the great
American bust.
Starting around 1980, globalization and automation began
exerting downward pressure on median wages. Employers began
busting unions in order to make more profits. And
increasingly deregulated financial markets began taking
over the real economy.
The result was slower wage growth for most households.
Women surged into paid work in order to prop up family
incomes -- which helped for a time. But the median wage
kept flattening, and then, after 2001, began to decline.
Households tried to keep up by going deeply into debt,
using the rising values of their homes as collateral. This
also helped -- for a time. But then the housing bubble
popped.
The Fed's latest report shows how loud that pop was.
Between 2007 and 2010 (the latest data available) American
families' median net worth fell almost 40 percent --
down to levels last seen in 1992. The typical family's
wealth is their home, not their stock portfolio -- and
housing values have dropped by a third since 2006.
Families have also become less confident about how much
income they can expect in the future. In 2010, over 35% of
American families said they did not "have a good idea
of what their income would be for the next year."
That's up from 31.4% in 2007.
But because their incomes and their net worth have both
dropped, families are saving less. The proportion of
families that said they had saved in the preceding year
fell from 56.4% in 2007 to 52% in 2010, the lowest level
since the Fed began collecting that information in 1992.
Bottom line: The American economy is still struggling
because the vast American middle class can't spend more
to get it out of first gear.
What to do? There's no simple answer in the short term
except to hope we stay in first gear and don't slide
backwards.
Over the longer term the answer is to make sure the middle
class gets far more of the gains from economic growth.
How? We might learn something from history. During the
1920s, income concentrated at the top. By 1928, the top 1
percent was raking in an astounding 23.94 percent of the
total (close to the 23.5 percent the top 1 percent got in
2007) according to analyses of tax records by my colleague
Emmanuel Saez and Thomas Piketty. At that point the bubble
popped and we fell into the Great Depression.
But then came the Wagner Act, requiring employers to
bargain in good faith with organized labor. Social Security
and unemployment insurance. The Works Projects
Administration and Civilian Conservation Corps. A national
minimum wage. Taxes were hiked on the very rich. And in
1941 America went to war -- a vast mobilization that
employed every able-bodied adult American, and put money in
their pockets.
By 1953, the top 1 percent of Americans raked in only 9.9
percent of total income. Most of the rest went to a growing
middle class -- whose members fueled the greatest economic
boom in the history of the world.
Get it? We won't get out of first gear until the middle
class regains the bargaining power it had in the first
three decades after World War II to claim a much larger
share of the gains from productivity growth.
ROBERT B. REICH, Chancellor's Professor of Public
Policy at the University of California at Berkeley, was
Secretary of Labor in the Clinton administration. Time
Magazine named him one of the ten most effective cabinet
secretaries of the last century. He has written thirteen
books, including the best sellers "Aftershock"
and "The Work of Nations." His latest is an
e-book, "Beyond Outrage." He is also a founding
editor of the American Prospect magazine and chairman of
Common Cause.