Allianz : TOP BUSINESS RISKS OF 2017

Allianz Risk Pulse

Top Business Risks 2017

Executive Summary

Top 10 Global Business Risks for 2017

To see full Risk Barometer 2017 Rankings click here

The sixth annual Allianz Risk Barometer identifies the top corporate perils, and potential responses, for 2017, based on the insight of more than 1,200 risk experts from 50+ countries.

Business interruption

(incl. supply chain disruption and vulnerability)

37% 2016:38% (1)

Cyber incidents

(cyber crime, IT failure, data breaches, etc.)

Market developments

(volatility, intensified competition/ new entrants, M&A, market stagnation, market fluctuation)

31% 2016:34% (2)

Natural catastrophes

(e.g. storm, flood, earthquake)

Companies worldwide are bracing themselves for a year of increased uncertainty, driven by growing concerns over political, legal and regulatory developments around the globe. Digital dilemmas such as the impact of new technologies on the risk profile of industries and cyber incidents are a rising concern as well, while natural catastrophe activity remains high on the agenda. But what troubles businesses most are actual or anticipated losses from a business interruption. page 4

Business interruption is the top risk for the fifth year in succession, but new triggers continue to emerge. Perils such as natural catastrophes and fires are the causes businesses fear most, but the nature of the risk is shifting

be underestimated, as the impact for global businesses can be much greater and longer-lasting. page 9

Market developments ranks as the second top risk for businesses overall but the top perils vary by industry sector. Increasing reliance on technology and automation is transforming, and disrupting, companies across all industry sectors.Digitalization is shifting the nature of corporate assets from mostly physical to increasingly intangible, producing new risks as well as benefits.page 10

For the fourth year in succession businesses are more concerned about cyber incidents. The threat now goes far beyond hacking and privacy and data breaches, although new

30% 2016:28% (3)

Changes in legislation and regulation (government change, economic sanctions, protectionism, etc.)

3 24%2016:24% (4)4

Macroeconomic developments

(austerity programs, commodity price increase, deflation, inflation)

increasingly towards non-damage events. A cyber incident or the indirect impact of an act of terrorism or political violence are events that can result in large losses

data protection regulations will exacerbate the fall-out from these events for businesses. Technical IT failure or human error can also result in costly damages. The digitalized production

24% 2016:24% (5)22% 2016:22% (6)

without causing physical damage. More of these types of events are expected to occur in future. page 7

Companies will need to invest more resources into better monitoring of politics and policy-making around the world in order to anticipate, and adapt to, any sudden changes

of rules that could impact business models and markets.

or Industry 4.0 environment means failure to interpret or submit data correctly can halt production. page 14

There are significant local and regional differences in the top 10 risks around the world. Market and macroeconomic developments rank as the top two risks in the Africa

& Middle East region. Concern about cyber incidents

Fire, explosion

Political risks and violence

(war, terrorism, etc.)

This comes amid fears of increasing protectionism and anti-globalization, which could produce a business interruption threat of a different kind. page 6

climbs to second position in Europe. page 16

The rise of new technology and the shift from physical

16% 2016:16% (8)14% 2016:11% (9)

Terrorism risk is rising and a business does not have to be the direct victim of an act to feel the effects. Locations can become inaccessible and supply chains impacted

in the wake of an attack. The growing risk of political violence, acts such as war, civil war, insurrection and other politically motivated incidents, which focus on countries rather than certain locations, should also not

asset protection to intangible risks means the insurance model is also evolving. Today's risk management world is more fluid and data-driven and intangible risks in particular require specialist services such as forensic IT support or crisis management. Demand is also expected to increase for new insurance coverages such as cyber and non- damage business interruption insurance, as companies look to protect against an increasing range of exposures.

Loss of reputation

or brand value

13% 2016:18% (7)

For methodology, see page 4. Source: Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty

New technologies

(e.g impact of increasing interconnectivity, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence,

3D printing, drones, etc.)

12% 2016:10% (11)

1Pho0tos: iStockPhoto

Snapshot: Top Business Risks Around The World in 2017

Click here to see the full list of top 10 business risks for each region and for 25 different countries

Top risk Business interruption

Market developments

Quality deficiencies, product recall

"Recent events, such as the wildfires in Fort McMurray, have highlighted the issues

companies face with BI. Also, with the tendency toward just-in-time manufacturing, BI becomes a critical concern."

Robert Fellows, Head of Market Management, AGCS Canada

Top risk Business interruption

Cyber incidents

Political risks (war, terrorism)

"While BI is a top concern, other uncertainties regarding the near future are also prominent, such as market and legislative/government developments. The audience is anticipating major changes." Thierry Van Santen, CEO, AGCS France

Top risk Business interruption

Top risk Cyber incidents

Macroeconomic developments Brexit

"Inflexibility in the face of change is the biggest risk to our

customers and us. Technological change is impacting our clients' business models, from where and how they earn revenue, to the blurring of old business segment definitions." Brian Kirwan, CEO, AGCS UK

Top risk Cyber incidents

Political risks (war, terrorism)

New technologies

"Increasing interconnectivity in an industry 4.0 environment and sophistication of cyber- attacks pose a huge risk for German corporates. We see increased activities of lawmakers and higher management awareness with comprehensive cyber risk strategies emerging." Andreas Berger, CEO, AGCS Central and Eastern Europe

Top risk Business interruption

Cyber incidents Regulation/government change

"The need for real data or information on

risk exposures, both seen and hidden, in an environment that is continuously changing with new suppliers and geographical locations is critical." Thomas Varney, Regional Manager, Americas, Allianz Risk Consulting

Cyber risk

Quality deficiencies, product recall "The growing level of outsourced activities have made production processes more vulnerable in

terms of interruption. The alternative production

capacity of many organizations has been reduced."

Juan-Manuel Negro, CEO, AGCS Spain

Top risk Macroeconomic developments

Market developments Theft, fraud, corruption

Top risk Cyber incidents

Market developments Talent shortage

"Nigeria and South Africa continue to face a trio of challenges: low commodity

prices, the Chinese slowdown and the tightening of US monetary policy."

Delphine Maidou, CEO, AGCS Africa

Top risk Business interruption

Market developments Natural catastrophes

"The earthquakes in central Italy during 2016 have

reignited discussion about how to improve prevention and to better finance risks in order to depend less on government aid, which is harder to get in this era of budget restrictions."

Nicola Mancino, CEO, AGCS Italy

Top risk Market developments

Natural catastrophes Fire, explosion

Top risk Business interruption

Cyber incidents New technologies

Top risk Natural catastrophes

Business interruption

Quality deficiencies, product recall

Top risk Business interruption

Loss of reputation Cyber incidents

"The widening web of interconnectivity is changing

claims trends. A key trend in Asia is the rise in product recall claims. This risk impacts supply chains and brand value of companies. We've had a few large cases in the food and beverage and electronics space, leading to a demand for recall cover. "

Mark Mitchell, CEO, AGCS Asia

This risk map shows the top risk for businesses in selected countries. It also shows rising risk concerns across these territories year-on-year.

Source: Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty

BI tops the list

The impact of business interruption (incl. supply chain disruption), market developments (volatility, intensified competition/new entrants, M&A and market stagnation), cyber incidents (cyber crime, IT failure, data breaches), natural catastrophes and changes

in legislation and regulation (goverment change, economic sanctions, protectionism, etc.) are the major risks occupying the attention of companies at the start of 2017, according to the sixth annualAllianz Risk

Barometer, which surveys over 1,200 risk managers and corporate insurance experts from more than 50 countries.

Business interruption (BI) remains the top peril for the fifth year in succession, with 37% of responses rating it as one of the three most important risks companies face in 2017. Many of the top 10 risks in this year's

barometer can have severe BI implications; evidence that a shift in BI risk is occurring. In today's interconnected industrial world, the reasons for BI are expanding from

damage-driven events, such as natural catastrophe or fire incidents, to intangible hazards or formerly uninsurable events. For example, a cyber incident, or the indirect impact of a terrorism or political violence event, such

as denial of access to the affected location afterwards, can result in a large loss of income for companies, without them actually suffering a physical loss.

Market developments remain a priority concern for businesses, occupying second position in the Risk

Barometer rankings (31% of responses). In addition to the concerns expressed about impact of volatile and stagnant markets and M&A, increasing digitalization and

deployment of new technologies is also impacting existing business models and industry risk profiles, results show.

Risk Barometer Methodology

The sixth annual Allianz Risk Barometer was conducted among Allianz corporate clients and brokers. It also surveyed risk consultants, underwriters, senior managers and claims experts of Allianz entities around the globe. Respondents were questioned during October and November 2016. The survey focused on large and small to mid-sized companies.

There were a record 1,237 respondents from a total of 55 countries. As multiple answers for up to two industries were possible, 4,679 answers were delivered. Participants were asked to select industries about which they are particularly knowledgeable and

name up to three risks they believe to be of most importance.

Most answers were for large enterprises (over €500m/$520m revenue) [2,325 responses, 50%]. Small enterprises (below €250m revenue) contributed 1,275 responses (27%) while mid-sized enterprises (€251m to €500m revenue) produced 1,079 responses (23%). Risk experts from 21 industry sectors were featured.

Ranking changes in the Risk Barometer are determined by positions year-on-year, ahead of percentages.

For example, the new liability scenarios and changes in loss activity patterns anticipated from deployment of new technologies, means this risk appears in the top 10 global risks for the first time with 12% of responses, up year-on-year. Meanwhile, more than half of responses (53%), across all industries, cited increasing digitalization and use of new technologies as the most prominent trend currently transforming their business sector.

Cyber incidents continues its rapid recent climb up the Risk Barometer rankings, occupying third position

with 30% of responses, again up year-on-year. Four years ago this peril ranked 15th in the top global risks, with just 6% of responses. Today, the results indicate that cyber risk occupies a significant portion of a company's exposure map. The risk now goes far and beyond the issue of privacy and data breaches. A single incident, be it a technical glitch, human error or an attack, can lead to severe business interruption, loss of market share and cause reputational damage. Of the top 10 global risks in the 2017 Allianz Risk Barometer, a cyber incident could be a potential root cause or trigger for 50% of them. In addition, the toughening of data protection regulation regimes around the world is also contributing to this

risk being at the forefront of risk managers' minds, as penalties for non-compliance are increasingly severe. The growing sophistication of cyber-attacks is the impact of increasing digitalization companies fear most (45%

of responses), while cyber risk is also the top long-term peril (42%), results show. However, cyber incidents ranks

4