Attijariwafa bank
As of 31 December 2016
Financial Communication
2017
2
Agenda
Overview of the economic environmentIFRS consolidated financial statements as of December 31, 2016 Regulatory ratios as of December 31, 2016
Attijariwafa bank share price performance
Macroeconomic environment in Africa in 2016 Real GDP growth in Africa2015 2016E 2017F
Real GDP growth in North and Sub-Saharan Africa (%)Africa | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 9.6 |
North Africa | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | |
West Africa | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.3 |
North Africa WAEMU1 EMCCA 2
Incl. WAEMU1 6.3% 6.3% 6.5%
Central Africa 3.7% 3.9% 5.0%
Incl. EMCCA2 2.1% 1.0% 2.6%
4.4
6.0
6.1 6.3 6.36.3 6.5
4.7 3.8
2.8 3.5 3.3
1.7
East Africa 6.3% 6.4% 6.7%
South Africa 2.2% 1.9% 2.8%
1.3
0.3
1.4
2.1
1.0
2.6
African economyEconomic growth in Africa: 3.7% in 2016E vs. 3.6% in 2015, driven mainly by domestic factors, including private consumption, public
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017F
Inflation rate (%)WAEMU 1
2
infrastructure developement and private investment
North AfricaGDP growth of 3.3% in 2016E vs. 3.5% in 2015
WAEMU(1)GDP growth of 6.3% in 2016E and inflation rate of 1.2% in 2016E vs.
3.6
2.7
3.8
2.8
2.2
2.7
2.2
EMCCA
2.1
2.8
1.7
1.0% in 2015
EMCCA(2)GDP growth of 1.0% in 2016E vs. 2.1% in 2015 and inflation rate
1.3
-0.1
1.0
1.2
stable at 2.1% in 2016E
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017F
WAEMU: Senegal, Burkina Faso, Mali, Ivory-Coast, Benin, Niger, Togo and Guinea-Bissau.
EMCCA: Cameroon, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Central African Republic and Chad
Source : BAD, FMI 3
- 2016 FY Results- Attijariwafa bank
Macroeconomic environment in Morocco in 2016
Main economic indicators2015
2016E
2017F
Real GDP growth
4.5%
1.1%
3.6%
Agricultural GDP
13.0%
-9.8%
9.7%
Non agricultural GDP
3.4%
2.7%
2.8%
Domestic Consumption
(growth,%) 2.4% 2.6% 3.2%
Inflation 1.6% 1.6% 1.0%
Imports (Change,%) -3.0% 9.6% -
Exports* (Change,%) 8.1% 2.9% -
MLA** Remittances (Change,%) 0.3% 3.4% -
FDI*** (Change,%) 9.2% -17.2% -
Economic growthGDP growth rate of 1.1% in 2016E mainly due to a lower cereal harvest (33.5 million quintals vs 115 million of quintals in 2015)
- Non-agricultural growth : 2.7% in 2016E
Stable inflation rate at 1.6% in 2016E (1.0% in 2017F and 1.5% in 2018F)
Continued improvement of macro-economic environment:
₋ Significant increase of foreign currency reserves to reach
6.9 months of imports in 2016 (4.1 months in 2012)
₋ Budget deficit to -4.0% of GDP in 2016E and -3.5% in 2017F in line with government target (-7.3% in 2012)
₋ Stabilization of the treasury debt (~64% of GDP)
Monetary policyCurrent account
Deficit/Surplus (% GDP) -2.0%
Capital and Financial Transactions
-3.7%1
(-2.9 in 2016E) -
Decrease of central bank key interest rate by 25bps to
2,25% (March 2016)
Increase of the mandatory reserve from 2% to 4% (June
Account (% GDP) 6.0% 5.9%1 -
Foreign currency reserves
(months of imports) 6.7 6.9 -
2016)
(*) Goods and services including Tourism ; (**) Moroccan Living Abroad ;
Budget deficit/surplus (% GDP) -4.3% -4.0% -3.5%
Treasury debt (% GDP) 64.1% 64.8% 64.0%
(***) Foreign Direct Investments
As of 30 September 2016
Source : Ministry of Finance, HCP, BAM, AWB Forecast
4
- 2016 FY Results- Attijariwafa bank
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